Severe Storms

MD 0090 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251048Z - 251245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and/or isolated instances of small hail are possible across central and southwest LA over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery reveals a convective line extending from the central LA/TX border vicinity southward along the Sabine River into far southeast TX/TX Golden Triangle. This line has shown an increase in intensity over the past hour or so, likely resulting from increasing large-scale ascent attendant negatively tilted shortwave trough moving into the central portions of the southern Plains. Prevailing low-level stability and elevated character of this line has limited the severe potential thus far, although a gust of 40 kt was reported at GLS. Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low 60s within the airmass preceding the line over central and southwest LA. This limited low-level moisture is expected to result in a prevalence of the low-stability, keeping the overall severe potential low. Best chance of a damaging gust will be across southwest/south-central LA where the best low-level moisture is located. Linear storm mode suggests the hail potential is low as well, but the combination of modest elevated buoyancy with strong shear could result in isolated instances of small hail. ..Mosier/Goss.. 01/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31269357 31599323 31749234 31329186 30349175 29729208 29509250 29659324 29689392 31269357 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 To Tuesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances to near the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As the front moves into the western Atlantic during the day, high pressure is forecast to build into the central and eastern U.S. Northerly flow associated with the high will likely advect a dry and cool airmass over much of the eastern half of the nation. This airmass is forecast to remain over the southern and central U.S on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the potential for thunderstorm development early in the week is low across the continental United States. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with mid-level flow remaining from the west or northwest across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface by Thursday, some moisture advection could take place over the southern Plains as flow returns to southerly in the wake of a high pressure system. Although isolated thunderstorms could be possible along the Texas Coast near the edge of a moist airmass, moisture return and large-scale ascent are forecast to be weak. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with isolated severe wind gusts, will be possible in parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. ...Southeast... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Eastern Gulf Coast states northward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the central Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm during the late morning, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop ahead of this convection around midday across parts of Alabama and western Georgia. As a mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, moves into the Southeast during the afternoon, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for the development of an organized line segment. Wind damage would be possible along the leading edge of this line, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Friday night. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place over much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Across this airmass, weak instability, poor lapse rates and limited large-scale ascent are factors that will minimize any severe threat potential. Elsewhere, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an upper-level low in parts of the southern Plains. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2024 Read more