Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more