Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...South-central CONUS including coastal Texas... Surface high pressure and cold stable conditions will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level disturbances and a prevalent warm conveyor over the south-central CONUS toward the Ozarks/Midwest will influence widespread showers across that same region with continued elevated thunderstorm potential especially across east/southeast Texas toward Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Weak surface-based destabilization should gradually occur near the upper Texas coast, beginning this afternoon and more so tonight. Within a favorable kinematic environment, a few stronger near-surface-based storms could occur as early as this afternoon across the upper Texas coast, but the overall severe thunderstorm potential is still expected to remain low through tonight. ...Western States... Showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of southwest Oregon and California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow, with steepening lapse rates. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0082 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MO...WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern MO...Western IL Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220927Z - 221430Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with rates generally from 0.01" to 0.03" per hour, is possible from central/eastern MO into western IL over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Surface observations from central MO through western IL have increasingly reported freezing rain over the past hour as persistent light precipitation erodes any dry layers preventing precipitation from reaching the surface. The heaviest precipitation is currently moving northeastward through central MO, and the general expectation is for reports of freezing rain to become more widespread across eastern MO and western IL over the next hour or two. Precipitation is generally light, with observations over central MO near the heaviest precipitation generally reporting 0.01" to 0.03" an hour. These rates will likely hold as the heaviest precipitation translates northeastward over the next few hours. Thereafter, weakening warm-air advection should lead to lighter precipitation over the Lower OH Valley. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37599269 38319343 39049355 40069311 40829166 40858975 40068867 38368874 37248964 37019124 37599269 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

MD 0081 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...NORTHEAST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/Central/Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Southwest/South-Central MO...Northeast AR Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220651Z - 221245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with rates of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour, will continue across much of central and eastern Oklahoma and into the Ozark Plateau for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a large area of precipitation from OK into the Ozark Plateau. This area of precipitation, which is a supported by moderate warm-air advection across the southern Plains, is gradually moving eastward/northeastward and is occurring within an area of largely sub-freezing surface temperatures. A more coherent area of precipitation is entering the Ozark Plateau vicinity, where light but steady precipitation should lead to freezing rain rates on the order of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour. This initial area of precipitation is followed by a more banded precipitation structure, which is ongoing over central OK now. Precipitation rates within these bands are likely equivalent to those within the more broad area of precipitation (i.e. around 0.01" to 0.03"), but higher rates are possible if deeper convection is realized within any of these bands. Lightning was recently observed in Cooke County TX, which is indicative of some deeper convective cores and higher precipitation rates. Temperatures across this region are expected to stay below freezing for the next several hours, with temperatures then warming above freezing around 10 to 12Z across south-central and southeast OK. Gradual warming is expected to then expand northeastward over time, ending the threat for freezing rain. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34309907 35519815 36339726 37409554 37489206 35889252 34139432 33769678 34309907 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more