Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region. Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will remain in place across the western/central US with continued cool and moist conditions extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0080 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220106Z - 220500Z SUMMARY...Increasing potential for freezing rain with potential for quick ice accumulations. DISCUSSION...A region of light to moderate precipitation is observed moving northeastward into southwestern Oklahoma over the last hour. Surface temperatures are hovering around freezing near the Red River with a drop into the upper 20s moving northeast. With dew points in the teens, further reduction of temperatures through wet-bulb cooling can be expected as the heavier precipitation moves northward. The 00z sounding from OUN shows a pronounced warm nose from 925 mb to around 800 mb with surface temperatures below freezing. Though some dry air remains around 750 mb and near the surface, the profile has moistened. It is noteworthy that hi-res guidance is generally running a little warm over the last 12-24 hours in trends when compared to RTMA. The RAP and HRRR seem to be coming into better alignment with current conditions over the last 3-6 hours. Expectation is for freezing drizzle and rain to increase in coverage over the next few hours across southeastern Oklahoma. Locations that are already below freezing will likely see quick icing, especially across elevated surfaces. Given that ground temperatures are already below freezing, this will likely impact travel with slick conditions developing quickly through the next few hours. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34409839 34739806 35189754 35339717 35429687 35479670 35509649 35529618 35489581 35339562 35099550 34869540 34629538 34369540 34169546 33979576 33869601 33819636 33839667 33869713 33879733 33899783 33989814 34079836 34409839 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more