Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas eastward to the Texas coast. ...South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate at this time. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southern and central Texas eastward to the Texas coast. ...South-central Texas/Texas Coastal Plain... Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S., as a trough moves through the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain, where moderate instability may develop during the day. Model forecasts differ on how far inland this moist airmass will be, with the ECMWF and GFS taking positions much further west than the NAM. The ECMWF is furthest west, with 60+ surface dewpoints over much of south-central Texas. Of the deterministic solutions, the ECMWF is the most favorable for a severe threat with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear in place by midday, suggesting that a marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible. The threat would gradually transition eastward from south-central Texas to the Texas Coast by Tuesday evening. Although the ECMWF shows an environment that could support a severe threat, other solutions are less favorable. Due to the uncertainty associated with relatively large model differences, a marginal risk appears to be appropriate at this time. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of California and southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. In response, moisture advection associated with a broad low-level jet, will take place across the Texas and Louisiana coastal plains. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south and central Texas. Convective coverage is expected to increase as a cluster of storms moves eastward to near the Texas coast during the afternoon. The storm cluster is forecast to move into southern Louisiana by the late evening and overnight period. Instability should remain very weak inland across the western Gulf Coast states suggesting that the potential for organized storms will remain minimal. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of California and southwest Arizona as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe threat is expected with this activity. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of California and southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. In response, moisture advection associated with a broad low-level jet, will take place across the Texas and Louisiana coastal plains. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south and central Texas. Convective coverage is expected to increase as a cluster of storms moves eastward to near the Texas coast during the afternoon. The storm cluster is forecast to move into southern Louisiana by the late evening and overnight period. Instability should remain very weak inland across the western Gulf Coast states suggesting that the potential for organized storms will remain minimal. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of California and southwest Arizona as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe threat is expected with this activity. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of California and southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. In response, moisture advection associated with a broad low-level jet, will take place across the Texas and Louisiana coastal plains. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south and central Texas. Convective coverage is expected to increase as a cluster of storms moves eastward to near the Texas coast during the afternoon. The storm cluster is forecast to move into southern Louisiana by the late evening and overnight period. Instability should remain very weak inland across the western Gulf Coast states suggesting that the potential for organized storms will remain minimal. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of California and southwest Arizona as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe threat is expected with this activity. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of California and southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. In response, moisture advection associated with a broad low-level jet, will take place across the Texas and Louisiana coastal plains. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south and central Texas. Convective coverage is expected to increase as a cluster of storms moves eastward to near the Texas coast during the afternoon. The storm cluster is forecast to move into southern Louisiana by the late evening and overnight period. Instability should remain very weak inland across the western Gulf Coast states suggesting that the potential for organized storms will remain minimal. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of California and southwest Arizona as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe threat is expected with this activity. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along parts of California and southwest Arizona. No severe threat is expected across the continental United States. ...DISCUSSION... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Monday from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley, as an upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. In response, moisture advection associated with a broad low-level jet, will take place across the Texas and Louisiana coastal plains. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south and central Texas. Convective coverage is expected to increase as a cluster of storms moves eastward to near the Texas coast during the afternoon. The storm cluster is forecast to move into southern Louisiana by the late evening and overnight period. Instability should remain very weak inland across the western Gulf Coast states suggesting that the potential for organized storms will remain minimal. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of California and southwest Arizona as an upper-level trough approaches. No severe threat is expected with this activity. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... Notable southern-stream short-wave trough will advance across the lower CO River Valley/Baja Peninsula early in the period before progressing to near the Big Bend/lower Rio Grande Valley region by 22/12z. Dominant surface anticyclone will shift into the OH/TN Valley early but remain influential into the southern Plains through the period. Latest data suggests a surface boundary will sharpen off the TX Coast in response to the approaching short wave. This will allow modified Gulf air mass to advance north to near the middle TX Coast, but will struggle to move inland given the low-latitude short wave, and influence of aforementioned anticyclone. Current thinking is strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection as steepening lapse rates aloft will aid buoyancy for thunderstorms. Models suggest 50-70kt LLJ will evolve across the southern Plains and this will lead to convection atop cold/stable boundary layer. Farther west, a few thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon north of the midlevel jet across southern AZ where 500mb temperatures cool to near -20C. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along the CA Coast, primarily during the latter half of the period in response to approaching short wave Sunday night. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... Notable southern-stream short-wave trough will advance across the lower CO River Valley/Baja Peninsula early in the period before progressing to near the Big Bend/lower Rio Grande Valley region by 22/12z. Dominant surface anticyclone will shift into the OH/TN Valley early but remain influential into the southern Plains through the period. Latest data suggests a surface boundary will sharpen off the TX Coast in response to the approaching short wave. This will allow modified Gulf air mass to advance north to near the middle TX Coast, but will struggle to move inland given the low-latitude short wave, and influence of aforementioned anticyclone. Current thinking is strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection as steepening lapse rates aloft will aid buoyancy for thunderstorms. Models suggest 50-70kt LLJ will evolve across the southern Plains and this will lead to convection atop cold/stable boundary layer. Farther west, a few thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon north of the midlevel jet across southern AZ where 500mb temperatures cool to near -20C. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along the CA Coast, primarily during the latter half of the period in response to approaching short wave Sunday night. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... Notable southern-stream short-wave trough will advance across the lower CO River Valley/Baja Peninsula early in the period before progressing to near the Big Bend/lower Rio Grande Valley region by 22/12z. Dominant surface anticyclone will shift into the OH/TN Valley early but remain influential into the southern Plains through the period. Latest data suggests a surface boundary will sharpen off the TX Coast in response to the approaching short wave. This will allow modified Gulf air mass to advance north to near the middle TX Coast, but will struggle to move inland given the low-latitude short wave, and influence of aforementioned anticyclone. Current thinking is strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection as steepening lapse rates aloft will aid buoyancy for thunderstorms. Models suggest 50-70kt LLJ will evolve across the southern Plains and this will lead to convection atop cold/stable boundary layer. Farther west, a few thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon north of the midlevel jet across southern AZ where 500mb temperatures cool to near -20C. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along the CA Coast, primarily during the latter half of the period in response to approaching short wave Sunday night. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/21/2024 Read more