Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... Notable southern-stream short-wave trough will advance across the lower CO River Valley/Baja Peninsula early in the period before progressing to near the Big Bend/lower Rio Grande Valley region by 22/12z. Dominant surface anticyclone will shift into the OH/TN Valley early but remain influential into the southern Plains through the period. Latest data suggests a surface boundary will sharpen off the TX Coast in response to the approaching short wave. This will allow modified Gulf air mass to advance north to near the middle TX Coast, but will struggle to move inland given the low-latitude short wave, and influence of aforementioned anticyclone. Current thinking is strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection as steepening lapse rates aloft will aid buoyancy for thunderstorms. Models suggest 50-70kt LLJ will evolve across the southern Plains and this will lead to convection atop cold/stable boundary layer. Farther west, a few thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon north of the midlevel jet across southern AZ where 500mb temperatures cool to near -20C. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along the CA Coast, primarily during the latter half of the period in response to approaching short wave Sunday night. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... Notable southern-stream short-wave trough will advance across the lower CO River Valley/Baja Peninsula early in the period before progressing to near the Big Bend/lower Rio Grande Valley region by 22/12z. Dominant surface anticyclone will shift into the OH/TN Valley early but remain influential into the southern Plains through the period. Latest data suggests a surface boundary will sharpen off the TX Coast in response to the approaching short wave. This will allow modified Gulf air mass to advance north to near the middle TX Coast, but will struggle to move inland given the low-latitude short wave, and influence of aforementioned anticyclone. Current thinking is strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection as steepening lapse rates aloft will aid buoyancy for thunderstorms. Models suggest 50-70kt LLJ will evolve across the southern Plains and this will lead to convection atop cold/stable boundary layer. Farther west, a few thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon north of the midlevel jet across southern AZ where 500mb temperatures cool to near -20C. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop along the CA Coast, primarily during the latter half of the period in response to approaching short wave Sunday night. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low across the CONUS tonight. ...Southwestern US... Midlevel speed max is translating across the eastern Pacific with stronger flow expected to progress across the northern Baja Peninsula into northern Mexico late tonight. This southern stream is becoming increasingly dominant and the primary short-wave trough should advance into the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the period. 00z soundings at OAK and REV exhibited shallow/weak instability, but lightning data has depicted a few flashes across the interior Valley at times. While a flash or two remains possible with the more robust updrafts this evening, buoyancy should remain weak and the prospect for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a 10% threshold overnight. ..Darrow.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low across the CONUS tonight. ...Southwestern US... Midlevel speed max is translating across the eastern Pacific with stronger flow expected to progress across the northern Baja Peninsula into northern Mexico late tonight. This southern stream is becoming increasingly dominant and the primary short-wave trough should advance into the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the period. 00z soundings at OAK and REV exhibited shallow/weak instability, but lightning data has depicted a few flashes across the interior Valley at times. While a flash or two remains possible with the more robust updrafts this evening, buoyancy should remain weak and the prospect for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a 10% threshold overnight. ..Darrow.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low across the CONUS tonight. ...Southwestern US... Midlevel speed max is translating across the eastern Pacific with stronger flow expected to progress across the northern Baja Peninsula into northern Mexico late tonight. This southern stream is becoming increasingly dominant and the primary short-wave trough should advance into the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the period. 00z soundings at OAK and REV exhibited shallow/weak instability, but lightning data has depicted a few flashes across the interior Valley at times. While a flash or two remains possible with the more robust updrafts this evening, buoyancy should remain weak and the prospect for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a 10% threshold overnight. ..Darrow.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential remains low across the CONUS tonight. ...Southwestern US... Midlevel speed max is translating across the eastern Pacific with stronger flow expected to progress across the northern Baja Peninsula into northern Mexico late tonight. This southern stream is becoming increasingly dominant and the primary short-wave trough should advance into the lower CO River Valley/Gulf of CA by the end of the period. 00z soundings at OAK and REV exhibited shallow/weak instability, but lightning data has depicted a few flashes across the interior Valley at times. While a flash or two remains possible with the more robust updrafts this evening, buoyancy should remain weak and the prospect for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a 10% threshold overnight. ..Darrow.. 01/21/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 20 22:26:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 20 22:26:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fuels are moist or snow covered across the CONUS which limits fire weather concerns. This trend will continue with wetting rain expected for most of the CONUS over the next week. The only locations expected to remain dry are in the northern Plains/Rockies where there is extensive snow cover and cold temperatures. Therefore quiet fire weather is expected for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fuels are moist or snow covered across the CONUS which limits fire weather concerns. This trend will continue with wetting rain expected for most of the CONUS over the next week. The only locations expected to remain dry are in the northern Plains/Rockies where there is extensive snow cover and cold temperatures. Therefore quiet fire weather is expected for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fuels are moist or snow covered across the CONUS which limits fire weather concerns. This trend will continue with wetting rain expected for most of the CONUS over the next week. The only locations expected to remain dry are in the northern Plains/Rockies where there is extensive snow cover and cold temperatures. Therefore quiet fire weather is expected for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fuels are moist or snow covered across the CONUS which limits fire weather concerns. This trend will continue with wetting rain expected for most of the CONUS over the next week. The only locations expected to remain dry are in the northern Plains/Rockies where there is extensive snow cover and cold temperatures. Therefore quiet fire weather is expected for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fuels are moist or snow covered across the CONUS which limits fire weather concerns. This trend will continue with wetting rain expected for most of the CONUS over the next week. The only locations expected to remain dry are in the northern Plains/Rockies where there is extensive snow cover and cold temperatures. Therefore quiet fire weather is expected for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Aloft, progressive and mostly zonal flow is expected to persist through the forecast period. A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough over the East Coast will move offshore through the day, while a trailing shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS. To the west, a Pacific trough will approach the coast of southern/central CA late tonight into early D2/Sunday. At the surface, a 1042 hPa high over the central Plains will migrate slowly eastward, reaching the mid MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. Associated with a continental polar air mass, sub-freezing, dry and stable conditions will suppress thunderstorm potential over much of the CONUS. An isolated lightning flash is possible across parts of coastal CA, but weak buoyancy, owing to poor mid-level lapse rates, and the late arrival of the upper-level forcing for ascent should keep chances well below 10% coverage thresholds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, the central US ridge will shift eastward as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, the central US ridge will shift eastward as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more