Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Discussion... Overall thunderstorm potential will be fairly limited/confined, with severe thunderstorms not expected across the CONUS. Expansive surface high pressure will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS, along with an accompanying cold continental airmass. Low-level warm advection will expand across the southern Plains into tonight, with a northward transport of higher theta-e air. This will support elevated destabilization, and the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In the West, multiple low-amplitude disturbances will spread inland and across the West and Southwest deserts through tonight. Pacific moisture and weak instability will support a few thunderstorms, across southern Arizona vicinity today, and portions of coastal California tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Monday. Much of the northern US remains under snow pack with cool and moist conditions to continue across the western and central US. Recent precipitation over the last 7-14 days has resulted in high fuel moisture across much of the CONUS, further limiting potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A larger-scale upper trough will become better defined across the West during the period as a series of disturbances move through the base of the trough. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastward from northern Mexico/southwest TX to the Arklatex by late evening and subsequently into the lower OH Valley by early Tuesday. Upstream of this feature, a powerful eastern Pacific jet will act to amplify an upper trough over the Sierra/NV and AZ vicinity. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield intermittent weak buoyancy and favor showers and a few thunderstorms near the CA coast and into the Sonoran Desert. A more spatially extensive area for isolated thunderstorms will include a large part of central/eastern TX into the OK/Arklatex region in association with a warm-air advection regime atop a cool boundary layer. The absence of surface-based instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development across the south-central states. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A larger-scale upper trough will become better defined across the West during the period as a series of disturbances move through the base of the trough. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastward from northern Mexico/southwest TX to the Arklatex by late evening and subsequently into the lower OH Valley by early Tuesday. Upstream of this feature, a powerful eastern Pacific jet will act to amplify an upper trough over the Sierra/NV and AZ vicinity. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield intermittent weak buoyancy and favor showers and a few thunderstorms near the CA coast and into the Sonoran Desert. A more spatially extensive area for isolated thunderstorms will include a large part of central/eastern TX into the OK/Arklatex region in association with a warm-air advection regime atop a cool boundary layer. The absence of surface-based instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development across the south-central states. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A larger-scale upper trough will become better defined across the West during the period as a series of disturbances move through the base of the trough. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastward from northern Mexico/southwest TX to the Arklatex by late evening and subsequently into the lower OH Valley by early Tuesday. Upstream of this feature, a powerful eastern Pacific jet will act to amplify an upper trough over the Sierra/NV and AZ vicinity. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield intermittent weak buoyancy and favor showers and a few thunderstorms near the CA coast and into the Sonoran Desert. A more spatially extensive area for isolated thunderstorms will include a large part of central/eastern TX into the OK/Arklatex region in association with a warm-air advection regime atop a cool boundary layer. The absence of surface-based instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development across the south-central states. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A larger-scale upper trough will become better defined across the West during the period as a series of disturbances move through the base of the trough. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastward from northern Mexico/southwest TX to the Arklatex by late evening and subsequently into the lower OH Valley by early Tuesday. Upstream of this feature, a powerful eastern Pacific jet will act to amplify an upper trough over the Sierra/NV and AZ vicinity. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield intermittent weak buoyancy and favor showers and a few thunderstorms near the CA coast and into the Sonoran Desert. A more spatially extensive area for isolated thunderstorms will include a large part of central/eastern TX into the OK/Arklatex region in association with a warm-air advection regime atop a cool boundary layer. The absence of surface-based instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development across the south-central states. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A larger-scale upper trough will become better defined across the West during the period as a series of disturbances move through the base of the trough. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastward from northern Mexico/southwest TX to the Arklatex by late evening and subsequently into the lower OH Valley by early Tuesday. Upstream of this feature, a powerful eastern Pacific jet will act to amplify an upper trough over the Sierra/NV and AZ vicinity. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield intermittent weak buoyancy and favor showers and a few thunderstorms near the CA coast and into the Sonoran Desert. A more spatially extensive area for isolated thunderstorms will include a large part of central/eastern TX into the OK/Arklatex region in association with a warm-air advection regime atop a cool boundary layer. The absence of surface-based instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development across the south-central states. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A larger-scale upper trough will become better defined across the West during the period as a series of disturbances move through the base of the trough. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastward from northern Mexico/southwest TX to the Arklatex by late evening and subsequently into the lower OH Valley by early Tuesday. Upstream of this feature, a powerful eastern Pacific jet will act to amplify an upper trough over the Sierra/NV and AZ vicinity. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield intermittent weak buoyancy and favor showers and a few thunderstorms near the CA coast and into the Sonoran Desert. A more spatially extensive area for isolated thunderstorms will include a large part of central/eastern TX into the OK/Arklatex region in association with a warm-air advection regime atop a cool boundary layer. The absence of surface-based instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development across the south-central states. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... A larger-scale upper trough will become better defined across the West during the period as a series of disturbances move through the base of the trough. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to eject northeastward from northern Mexico/southwest TX to the Arklatex by late evening and subsequently into the lower OH Valley by early Tuesday. Upstream of this feature, a powerful eastern Pacific jet will act to amplify an upper trough over the Sierra/NV and AZ vicinity. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will yield intermittent weak buoyancy and favor showers and a few thunderstorms near the CA coast and into the Sonoran Desert. A more spatially extensive area for isolated thunderstorms will include a large part of central/eastern TX into the OK/Arklatex region in association with a warm-air advection regime atop a cool boundary layer. The absence of surface-based instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development across the south-central states. ..Smith.. 01/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... The central US ridge will shift eastward today as weak disturbances move inland across the western US. Some increase of southerly flow is expected across the Plains. Cool and moist conditions, along with fresh snow pack across much of the central/northern Plains, should keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more