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1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much
of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an
upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern
Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast
on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the
region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the
southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe
threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to
Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak
instability should help to keep any severe threat localized.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic
Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely
become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday
into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two
days.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much
of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an
upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern
Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast
on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the
region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the
southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe
threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to
Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak
instability should help to keep any severe threat localized.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic
Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely
become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday
into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two
days.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much
of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an
upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern
Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast
on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the
region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the
southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe
threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to
Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak
instability should help to keep any severe threat localized.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic
Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely
become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday
into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two
days.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much
of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an
upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern
Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast
on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the
region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the
southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe
threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to
Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak
instability should help to keep any severe threat localized.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic
Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely
become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday
into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two
days.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much
of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an
upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern
Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast
on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the
region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the
southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe
threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to
Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak
instability should help to keep any severe threat localized.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic
Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely
become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday
into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two
days.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be
possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the
central Gulf Coast.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong
flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass
located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to
the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to
remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to
become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be
possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the
central Gulf Coast.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong
flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass
located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to
the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to
remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to
become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be
possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the
central Gulf Coast.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong
flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass
located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to
the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to
remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to
become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be
possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the
central Gulf Coast.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong
flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass
located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to
the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to
remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to
become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be
possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the
central Gulf Coast.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong
flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass
located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to
the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to
remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to
become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be
possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the
central Gulf Coast.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong
flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass
located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to
the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to
remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to
become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be
possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the
central Gulf Coast.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong
flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass
located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to
the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to
remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to
become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be
possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the
central Gulf Coast.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong
flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass
located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to
the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible
along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to
remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow
may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to
become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far
southwest Louisiana.
...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana...
Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on
Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A
shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern
Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens
across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized
near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the
lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast
to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat
will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is
forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado
threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in
area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe
threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far
southwest Louisiana.
...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana...
Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on
Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A
shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern
Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens
across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized
near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the
lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast
to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat
will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is
forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado
threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in
area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe
threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far
southwest Louisiana.
...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana...
Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on
Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A
shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern
Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens
across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized
near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the
lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast
to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat
will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is
forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado
threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in
area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe
threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far
southwest Louisiana.
...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana...
Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on
Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A
shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern
Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens
across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized
near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the
lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast
to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat
will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is
forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado
threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in
area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe
threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far
southwest Louisiana.
...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana...
Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on
Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A
shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern
Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens
across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized
near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the
lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast
to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat
will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is
forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado
threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in
area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe
threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Coastal Plain to far
southwest Louisiana.
...Texas Coastal Plain/Far Southwest Louisiana...
Anticyclonic southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on
Tuesday from the southern Plains to the Appalachians Mountains. A
shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward into the southern
Plains on Tuesday as an inverted trough at the surface deepens
across east Texas. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized
near the trough in southeast Texas, where scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form during the day. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop near and to east of the surface trough along the
lower to middle Texas coast. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast
to be around 60 knots, which suggests that an isolated severe threat
will be possible during the afternoon. The greatest severe threat is
forecast to be near and to the west of the Houston vicinity, where
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. A marginal tornado
threat will also be possible. The threat will likely be small in
area, and there is some uncertainty as to how far inland the severe
threat will be. For this reason, will maintain a marginal risk.
..Broyles.. 01/22/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few
days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico
toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in
PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air
mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained
low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air
mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley.
Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant,
and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should
primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part
by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the
Arklatex region.
Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest
convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong
midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja
Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will
contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As
a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat
gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the
period.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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