Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 24 00:58:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 24 00:58:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of south/southeast Texas into Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas into Louisiana... Ahead of an upper trough over the Southwest, a broad area of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over parts of TX into the lower MS Valley tonight. A surface front is draped southwest to northeast across this region as well, with generally mid to upper 60s present to its south. Ongoing convection along/near this boundary will probably tend to remain slightly elevated given poor low-level lapse rates and lingering boundary-layer inhibition. Still, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective organization, with some chance for isolated hail and strong/gusty winds with the more robust updrafts. A brief tornado will also remain possible with any surface-based convection, as sufficient shear associated with a modestly enhanced southerly low-level jet migrates across southeast/coastal TX into southern LA tonight into early Wednesday morning. Greater low-level moisture exists across parts of south TX ahead of the front. 00Z soundings from CRP and BRO show steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a pronounced cap between 850 and 700 mb. It remains unclear whether thunderstorms will be able to develop across parts of northeast Mexico and be sustained into south TX later tonight. If this convection occurs, deep-layer shear of 50-55 kt will easily support supercell structures, with an associated threat for large hail and damaging winds. Even so, large-scale ascent across this region appears nebulous at best, suggesting that the overall severe threat should tend to remain isolated. ..Gleason.. 01/24/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 23 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 23 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Wet fuels and wetting rain will continue for much of the extended forecast period. Dry conditions are expected in the northern Plains/Rockies, but extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Wet fuels and wetting rain will continue for much of the extended forecast period. Dry conditions are expected in the northern Plains/Rockies, but extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Wet fuels and wetting rain will continue for much of the extended forecast period. Dry conditions are expected in the northern Plains/Rockies, but extensive snowcover is present with below freezing temperatures. Therefore, fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS for the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area. Generally disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon across parts of TX/LA. With favorable deep-layer shear and increasing low-level moisture, some uptick in storm organization/intensity remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from east TX into western LA, though generally weak instability is exepcted to keep any severe threat isolated. Later tonight, some guidance (including recent runs of the HRRR/RRFS) develops vigorous convection across south TX, which then evolves into an MCS near the middle TX coast. Should this occur, some severe threat could develop during the overnight hours near the TX coast and spread into southwest LA by early Wednesday morning. Finally, a couple strong storms will be possible across parts of west TX late this afternoon into the evening, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching from northern Mexico. At this time, it appears that the severe threat will be limited by weak instability, though gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/ ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area. Generally disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon across parts of TX/LA. With favorable deep-layer shear and increasing low-level moisture, some uptick in storm organization/intensity remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from east TX into western LA, though generally weak instability is exepcted to keep any severe threat isolated. Later tonight, some guidance (including recent runs of the HRRR/RRFS) develops vigorous convection across south TX, which then evolves into an MCS near the middle TX coast. Should this occur, some severe threat could develop during the overnight hours near the TX coast and spread into southwest LA by early Wednesday morning. Finally, a couple strong storms will be possible across parts of west TX late this afternoon into the evening, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching from northern Mexico. At this time, it appears that the severe threat will be limited by weak instability, though gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/ ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area. Generally disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon across parts of TX/LA. With favorable deep-layer shear and increasing low-level moisture, some uptick in storm organization/intensity remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from east TX into western LA, though generally weak instability is exepcted to keep any severe threat isolated. Later tonight, some guidance (including recent runs of the HRRR/RRFS) develops vigorous convection across south TX, which then evolves into an MCS near the middle TX coast. Should this occur, some severe threat could develop during the overnight hours near the TX coast and spread into southwest LA by early Wednesday morning. Finally, a couple strong storms will be possible across parts of west TX late this afternoon into the evening, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching from northern Mexico. At this time, it appears that the severe threat will be limited by weak instability, though gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/ ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area. Generally disorganized convection is ongoing this afternoon across parts of TX/LA. With favorable deep-layer shear and increasing low-level moisture, some uptick in storm organization/intensity remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from east TX into western LA, though generally weak instability is exepcted to keep any severe threat isolated. Later tonight, some guidance (including recent runs of the HRRR/RRFS) develops vigorous convection across south TX, which then evolves into an MCS near the middle TX coast. Should this occur, some severe threat could develop during the overnight hours near the TX coast and spread into southwest LA by early Wednesday morning. Finally, a couple strong storms will be possible across parts of west TX late this afternoon into the evening, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching from northern Mexico. At this time, it appears that the severe threat will be limited by weak instability, though gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/ ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from south-central and southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. ...South TX into parts of the Southeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deamplify somewhat as it moves northeastward from the southern Rockies toward the ArkLaTex region. A surface front (whose position will be determined in part by the evolution of convection during the D1/Tuesday period) will initially be draped somewhere from south TX northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss region, and then southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast vicinity. Uncertainty remains relatively high regarding storm evolution on D2/Wednesday. Broad ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level trough and rich low-level moisture will likely support widespread cloudiness and convection from the mid/upper TX coast toward the central Gulf Coast region. While instability will likely remain limited across much of the area, rich low-level moisture and favorable deep-layer shear may support occasionally organized storm structures. There will likely be a tendency for most convection to remain on the cool side of the outflow-reinforced surface boundary, but if any surface-based storms can be sustained, then some threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated hail will also be possible across parts of south-central/southeast TX, where somewhat more favorable midlevel lapse rates and instability are expected to persist along the southwestern periphery of extensive downstream convection. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from south-central and southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. ...South TX into parts of the Southeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deamplify somewhat as it moves northeastward from the southern Rockies toward the ArkLaTex region. A surface front (whose position will be determined in part by the evolution of convection during the D1/Tuesday period) will initially be draped somewhere from south TX northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss region, and then southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast vicinity. Uncertainty remains relatively high regarding storm evolution on D2/Wednesday. Broad ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level trough and rich low-level moisture will likely support widespread cloudiness and convection from the mid/upper TX coast toward the central Gulf Coast region. While instability will likely remain limited across much of the area, rich low-level moisture and favorable deep-layer shear may support occasionally organized storm structures. There will likely be a tendency for most convection to remain on the cool side of the outflow-reinforced surface boundary, but if any surface-based storms can be sustained, then some threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated hail will also be possible across parts of south-central/southeast TX, where somewhat more favorable midlevel lapse rates and instability are expected to persist along the southwestern periphery of extensive downstream convection. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from south-central and southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. ...South TX into parts of the Southeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deamplify somewhat as it moves northeastward from the southern Rockies toward the ArkLaTex region. A surface front (whose position will be determined in part by the evolution of convection during the D1/Tuesday period) will initially be draped somewhere from south TX northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss region, and then southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast vicinity. Uncertainty remains relatively high regarding storm evolution on D2/Wednesday. Broad ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level trough and rich low-level moisture will likely support widespread cloudiness and convection from the mid/upper TX coast toward the central Gulf Coast region. While instability will likely remain limited across much of the area, rich low-level moisture and favorable deep-layer shear may support occasionally organized storm structures. There will likely be a tendency for most convection to remain on the cool side of the outflow-reinforced surface boundary, but if any surface-based storms can be sustained, then some threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated hail will also be possible across parts of south-central/southeast TX, where somewhat more favorable midlevel lapse rates and instability are expected to persist along the southwestern periphery of extensive downstream convection. ..Dean.. 01/23/2024 Read more