Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more