Severe Storms

MD 2038 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2038 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052322Z - 060115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least a few instances of severe wind or hail may accompany the stronger storms this evening, particularly with any supercells that can become established. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying near a surface frontal boundary draped zonally across northern TX (just north of the Metroplex). Ahead of these storms resides a buoyant airmass, characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates over a mixed boundary layer with 15-20 F temperature/dewpoint spreads. Furthermore, general veering with height is contributing to elongated and curved hodographs (albeit with some veer-back-veering within the profiles per RAP forecast soundings). With 40 kt effective bulk shear values overlapping with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of ongoing storms, multicells and supercells are possible, accompanied by both a severe wind/hail risk. The ongoing storm over Denton County is currently exhibiting outflow tendencies per KFWS NEXRAD radar imagery, which will likely help drive the frontal boundary southward. As such, it is unclear how many storms will be able to cross to the warm side of the boundary. Overall, the complex mesoscale setup and undercutting boundaries suggest that the overall severe threat may remain isolated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32429859 32649903 32909921 33139913 33659869 33789812 33739677 33629589 33409549 33099526 32859521 32699538 32429635 32429649 32359777 32429859 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 2037 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606... FOR MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTH AL
Mesoscale Discussion 2037 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0559 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...Middle TN and far north AL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606... Valid 052259Z - 060100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606 continues. SUMMARY...A more concentrated swath of strong to localized severe gusts is possible with potential for a slow-moving cluster to accelerate across mainly southern Middle Tennessee through mid-evening. DISCUSSION...The deepest convective cores have persisted over the past couple hours across southwest TN. These have congealed into an initially slow-moving cluster into southern Middle TN with forward motion of only 15-20 kts. But with strengthening of the surface temperature gradient, from upper 60s in the emerging cold pool to 85-90 F persisting ahead of the outflow, a more concentrated swath of strong to localized severe gusts may evolve over the next 2-3 hours. This would be coincident with probable acceleration of the cold pool that yields more moderate westerly storm motions into mid-evening. This might eventually approach the southeastern edge of WW 606 and necessitate a local areal extension. Weak low-level west-southwesterlies evident in area VWP data does lower confidence on just how robust the damaging wind threat may become. ..Grams/Mosier.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 35808757 36028694 36128610 36018547 35588533 35228532 34868547 34708578 34638702 34658780 34668835 34978833 35428779 35808757 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 2036 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER OH VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...the Upper OH Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052201Z - 060000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening to the northeast of recently issued WW 606, most probable across western to northern West Virginia. DISCUSSION...Initially small discrete cells have been slow to develop in the Upper OH Valley region of southeast OH and western WV, where MLCAPE is progressively weaker with northeast extent from the TN Valley. But with stronger southwesterly to west-southwesterly deep-layer shear, there is potential for a few of these cells to acquire mid-level rotation and perhaps grow upscale into a small cluster. The most probable corridor for this to occur is across western to northern WV where 80s surface temperatures are common. Cooler temperatures and dew points into PA should spatially confine severe potential from far southwest PA southwestward. ..Grams/Mosier.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40357963 39677939 38088120 37838208 37978240 38168280 38408281 38968253 39738139 40378058 40357963 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MKL TO 25 NNE BNA TO 10 ENE BWG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037. ..GRAMS..09/05/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-077-060040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT LAUDERDALE KYC001-003-009-013-025-045-051-053-057-063-065-071-079-087-095- 109-115-119-121-125-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-159-165-169-171- 175-189-193-195-197-199-203-207-217-231-235-237-060040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BELL BREATHITT CASEY CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FLOYD GARRARD GREEN HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN Read more

WW 606 SEVERE TSTM AL KY MS TN VA 052145Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northwest Alabama Central and Eastern Kentucky Far Northeast Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee Extreme Western Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon from 445 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase along and ahead of a cold front progressing slowly southeastward through the region. Environmental conditions will support a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Some clustering is possible over time, with damaging gusts possible within these storm clusters as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 25 miles east southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..09/05/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-077-052340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT LAUDERDALE KYC001-003-009-013-025-045-051-053-057-063-065-071-079-087-095- 109-115-119-121-125-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-159-165-169-171- 175-189-193-195-197-199-203-207-213-217-231-235-237-052340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BELL BREATHITT CASEY CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FLOYD GARRARD GREEN HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE METCALFE MONROE MORGAN OWSLEY Read more

MD 2035 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052030Z - 052230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring for increasing severe-thunderstorm potential into this evening. One or more watches will probably be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery and radar data show a gradual deepening of boundary-layer cumulus and the first signs of convective development within cloud breaks across parts of TN and KY. Continued differential heating ahead of a slow-moving cold front and a warm/uncapped air mass (per mesoanalysis and the latest BNA ACARS sounding) should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Thunderstorms will be evolving in an environment characterized by moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (per modified RAP soundings) and around 30-40 kt of effective shear (stronger with northward extent). This should promote a gradual increase in convective intensity and organization. A mix of organized clusters and perhaps transient supercell structures will be possible, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. Given weak large-scale ascent, timing of convective development/maturation remains somewhat uncertain. Convective trends are being monitored, and one or more watches will probably be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH... MEG... LAT...LON 34858898 35178921 35748905 36728734 37258631 38298369 38948262 38938214 38538181 38018196 36788349 35268601 34858732 34708848 34858898 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to progress east and northeastward into early next week. Farther west over the Rockies, a shortwave ridge will briefly weaken and then amplify again as a Pacific upper trough deepens and moves onshore around D5/Tuesday. Increasing mid to upper level height gradients across the Intermountain West will accompany this trough into D6/Wednesday. ...D3/Sunday... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorm chances will likely continue near and east of the Cascades by this time. Given the chance of wetting rains over the next couple of days across this region, and a trend towards higher RH via lower temperatures and deepening boundary layer moisture, low probabilities for dry thunderstorms do not appear warranted at this time. This will be monitored closely, however, over the next couple of days considering the highly receptive state of the current fuels. ...D5/Tuesday - D6/Wednesday... Increasing south-southwesterly surface winds are expected to develop from western AZ into southwestern UT, and a portion of the central Rockies early to mid next week. Warm and dry conditions are also anticipated here, though fuels remain relatively unreceptive to ignition and spread. For this reason, low probabilities will not be introduced at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more