Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin on the western flank of the surface high. ...Eastern Carolinas... Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or two could develop and produce localized gusty winds. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet. With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ...Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 Read more

MD 2041 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060320Z - 060515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may still occur with the stronger storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An MCS continues to propagate eastward along the TX/OK border, and will soon enter AR. This MCS has an earlier history of producing severe gusts, though none have been reported over the last couple of hours. However, recently intensified convection north of the Metroplex has produced measured severe gusts. These storms are tracking into an environment characterized by up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30+ kts of effective bulk shear, whose vectors are oriented roughly normal to the ongoing linear convection. The expectation is for organized storms, including bowing segments, to continue propagating to the east amid this CAPE/shear parameter space. However, nocturnal cooling, and the impacts of overturning convection, are contributing to low-level stability, so the persistence of effective downward momentum transport for damaging or severe gusts is in question. Nonetheless, at least a few more strong to possibly severe gusts are plausible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32669656 32719711 32879733 33119742 33409737 33509734 34329531 34629311 34339190 33819166 33339194 33019275 32879374 32739511 32659602 32669656 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0606 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HSS TO 25 SSW JKL TO 25 E JKL. WW 606 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060500Z. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...MEG...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC071-095-119-131-133-159-193-195-060500- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD HARLAN KNOTT LESLIE LETCHER MARTIN PERRY PIKE TNC067-060500- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK VAC105-060500- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more