Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR 2NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...2North Carolina into Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181705Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving off the southern Appalachians will intensify as they move into North Carolina and Virginia and may produce several swaths of damaging wind. Watch issuance is expected in the coming hours to address this threat. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows increasing depth and coverage of convective towers with occasional lightning flashes within a broad cumulus field within the southern Appalachians likely driven by a combination of increasing orographic ascent and weak lift ahead of a decaying MCV. Based on recent RAP mesoanalysis, modified forecast soundings, and areas of lingering low/mid-level stratus, some residual inhibition remains across the region, but this should quickly erode through 19 UTC as temperatures climb into the upper 80s/low 90s. Thunderstorm development is expected around this time within/in proximity to the higher terrain as MLCIN is removed and glancing ascent ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes overspreads the region. Moderate westerly mid-level flow will support storm propagation into VA/NC. The combination of warm surface temperatures and seasonably moist conditions downstream (dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s) will support MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg by peak heating. Consequently, thunderstorm should intensify as they move into this environment. GOES-derived wind estimates show 30-35 knot flow between 6-7 km AGL across northern VA, which appears to be slightly stronger than anticipated by recent forecast guidance and should be adequate for organized clusters, and perhaps a few organized discrete cells, given weak low-level winds. While a few instances of large hail are possible (mainly over central VA where mid-level flow is slightly stronger), the predominant threat should be damaging/severe winds given steepening near-surface lapse rates, high PWAT values, and 20-25 K theta-e deficits, which will all favor strong to severe downbursts. Damaging wind swaths should become more probable through mid/late afternoon as organized clusters begin to materialize. Watch issuance is expected in the coming hours to address this concern. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36378194 38437897 38587840 38577789 38437748 38157723 37837699 37567687 37317681 36907684 36317719 35867766 35707824 35607868 35587939 35648109 35728156 35898189 36068204 36188208 36378194 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z Scattered thunderstorms with a combination of wet/dry modes are expected across portions of the Northern Great Basin today as relatively deeper moisture from an upper-low over southern California impinges on the area. At 12 UTC, the precipitable water value at Elko, NV was 0.71 inches (near the 90th percentile) and at Salt Lake City, UT 0.87 inches (near the 80th percentile), with ensemble guidance suggesting further increases today. Despite the scattered thunderstorm coverage, new ignitions may be somewhat limited by the trend toward wetter storm modes. Nevertheless, at least isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the fringe of the deeper moisture and along the periphery of any stronger storm cores. Additionally, gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are possible from nearby thunderstorms - especially across portions of northeast Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Please see the latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather potential in this area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain possible this afternoon from the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and central Oregon. The forecast remains mostly on-track across this area with only minor adjustments needed based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will be present across the southern half of the CONUS with a belt of stronger mid-level winds within the northern tier states. A weak upper-level low will remain nearly stationary in southern California/northern Baja. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions are most likely to occur within the Cascade gaps eastward into Columbia Basin and central Oregon. Here, surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon RH of 15-20%. Some locally critical fire weather is possible in the Cascade gaps where winds will be stronger. However, RH may only briefly fall to critical levels. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest mid-level moisture return will be aided by the weak upper low in southern California. A few dry thunderstorms are possible on the northern/northwest fringe of the mid-level moisture. Storms may be a combination of both wet/dry modes due to relatively weak mid/upper-level flow. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more