Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2043 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA. SOUTHERN MD...AND NORTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 2043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern VA. southern MD...and northern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061727Z - 061930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-thunderstorm potential this afternoon. The stronger storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and isolated severe hail. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is becoming increasingly agitated along a prefrontal trough extending from central/eastern VA into northern NC, and initial signs of convective initiation are evident. Continued diurnal heating/destabilization amid lower 70s dewpoints should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, the warm/moist PBL will still yield moderate surface-based buoyancy, which will favor gradual updraft intensification. Additionally, around 35 kt of effective shear may promote loosely organized cells/clusters, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated/sporadic marginally severe hail. Current thinking is that the severe threat will be too localized/marginal for a watch, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36707962 37807819 38887753 39127731 38967663 38577635 36907696 36157807 35857875 35927934 36217971 36707962 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

MD 2042 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 2042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of New England into the northern Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061556Z - 061730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is possible by early afternoon. Issuance of one or more watches is likely. DISCUSSION...Filtered heating is ongoing late this morning from parts of NJ/eastern PA into parts of New England, to the east of a substantial cloud shield and embedded weak convection. Morning soundings depict generally poor midlevel lapse rates, but relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F) and continued heating will result in MLCAPE increasing to the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Scattered surface-based storm development is expected as soon as early afternoon, as a cold front begins to impinge upon this destabilizing environment. Deep-layer shear is already rather strong across the region, and will continue to increase in response to a notable mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the lower Great Lakes region. Initial development may quickly evolve into a few supercells, though deep-layer flow/shear roughly parallel to the front may eventually result in a tendency toward storm clustering and possible QLCS development. Some increase in low-level shear/SRH with time could support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially where surface winds remain locally backed near a weak surface wave that will traverse the front this afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercells. Otherwise, scattered damaging wind will become increasingly possible with time, as storm coverage increases and low-level lapse rates steepen. One or more watches will likely be issued by early afternoon in order to cover these threats. ..Dean/Hart.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40787571 42387405 43467265 44817037 45396938 45596874 45246817 44116943 43467045 43057062 42057186 40337396 39707470 39517551 39407598 39657641 40097632 40787571 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low on Sunday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An upper level ridge will build over the Rockies/Western U.S. during the day on Sunday, with some warming in mid/upper levels noted. Near/after 00z, a weak shortwave impulse is forecast to eject east from the central Rockies into the central Plains, resulting in modest height falls and some forcing for ascent into CO/NE/KS. At the surface, weak lee troughing will support southerly return flow, and a narrow corridor of 50s to near 60 F dewpoints is forecast from southwest NE into eastern CO and western KS, southward over far eastern NM, and western TX/OK. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest with RAP/NAM forecast soundings indicating 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km atop the modest boundary layer moisture. This will support generally weak MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles (southerly low-levels becoming northwesterly with height) will foster modest effective shear magnitudes around 25 kt. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon into early evening within the modestly unstable/moist boundary layer near the surface trough. A low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening, and may aid in sustaining thunderstorms despite a cooling boundary layer. A strong storm or two could produce small hail or gusty winds, but overall severe potential appears limited given a lack of stronger forcing/thermodynamic environment and concerns over limited storm coverage. ...Coastal Carolinas into southeast GA... Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will weaken with time and southward extent as the stronger upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Northeast lifts northeast through the period. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. This will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg during the afternoon. Vertical shear also will remain limited, with weak flow through at least 700 mb evident in forecast soundings. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will likely limit severe potential, but where stronger heating can occur, locally gusty winds will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low on Sunday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An upper level ridge will build over the Rockies/Western U.S. during the day on Sunday, with some warming in mid/upper levels noted. Near/after 00z, a weak shortwave impulse is forecast to eject east from the central Rockies into the central Plains, resulting in modest height falls and some forcing for ascent into CO/NE/KS. At the surface, weak lee troughing will support southerly return flow, and a narrow corridor of 50s to near 60 F dewpoints is forecast from southwest NE into eastern CO and western KS, southward over far eastern NM, and western TX/OK. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest with RAP/NAM forecast soundings indicating 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km atop the modest boundary layer moisture. This will support generally weak MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles (southerly low-levels becoming northwesterly with height) will foster modest effective shear magnitudes around 25 kt. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon into early evening within the modestly unstable/moist boundary layer near the surface trough. A low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening, and may aid in sustaining thunderstorms despite a cooling boundary layer. A strong storm or two could produce small hail or gusty winds, but overall severe potential appears limited given a lack of stronger forcing/thermodynamic environment and concerns over limited storm coverage. ...Coastal Carolinas into southeast GA... Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will weaken with time and southward extent as the stronger upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Northeast lifts northeast through the period. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. This will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg during the afternoon. Vertical shear also will remain limited, with weak flow through at least 700 mb evident in forecast soundings. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will likely limit severe potential, but where stronger heating can occur, locally gusty winds will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low on Sunday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An upper level ridge will build over the Rockies/Western U.S. during the day on Sunday, with some warming in mid/upper levels noted. Near/after 00z, a weak shortwave impulse is forecast to eject east from the central Rockies into the central Plains, resulting in modest height falls and some forcing for ascent into CO/NE/KS. At the surface, weak lee troughing will support southerly return flow, and a narrow corridor of 50s to near 60 F dewpoints is forecast from southwest NE into eastern CO and western KS, southward over far eastern NM, and western TX/OK. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest with RAP/NAM forecast soundings indicating 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km atop the modest boundary layer moisture. This will support generally weak MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles (southerly low-levels becoming northwesterly with height) will foster modest effective shear magnitudes around 25 kt. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon into early evening within the modestly unstable/moist boundary layer near the surface trough. A low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening, and may aid in sustaining thunderstorms despite a cooling boundary layer. A strong storm or two could produce small hail or gusty winds, but overall severe potential appears limited given a lack of stronger forcing/thermodynamic environment and concerns over limited storm coverage. ...Coastal Carolinas into southeast GA... Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will weaken with time and southward extent as the stronger upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Northeast lifts northeast through the period. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. This will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg during the afternoon. Vertical shear also will remain limited, with weak flow through at least 700 mb evident in forecast soundings. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will likely limit severe potential, but where stronger heating can occur, locally gusty winds will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more