Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. ...Central and Southern Plains... A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough, potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough. However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection could limit storm coverage/development. Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization. Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are possible. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough is progressing steadily east early this evening. Synoptic cold front is advancing toward the Atlantic Coast but frontal convection is decidedly weaker as pre frontal buoyancy is not that great, and now suppressed toward lower latitudes, well south of stronger deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms should gradually weaken over the next few hours as boundary layer continues to cool. Isolated thunderstorms will also linger across much of the western U.S. from the southern Rockies, across the Great Basin, into WA/OR. While a few robust storms may be noted for the next few hours, aside from locally gusty winds this activity too should weaken with boundary layer cooling. ..Darrow.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough is progressing steadily east early this evening. Synoptic cold front is advancing toward the Atlantic Coast but frontal convection is decidedly weaker as pre frontal buoyancy is not that great, and now suppressed toward lower latitudes, well south of stronger deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms should gradually weaken over the next few hours as boundary layer continues to cool. Isolated thunderstorms will also linger across much of the western U.S. from the southern Rockies, across the Great Basin, into WA/OR. While a few robust storms may be noted for the next few hours, aside from locally gusty winds this activity too should weaken with boundary layer cooling. ..Darrow.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough is progressing steadily east early this evening. Synoptic cold front is advancing toward the Atlantic Coast but frontal convection is decidedly weaker as pre frontal buoyancy is not that great, and now suppressed toward lower latitudes, well south of stronger deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms should gradually weaken over the next few hours as boundary layer continues to cool. Isolated thunderstorms will also linger across much of the western U.S. from the southern Rockies, across the Great Basin, into WA/OR. While a few robust storms may be noted for the next few hours, aside from locally gusty winds this activity too should weaken with boundary layer cooling. ..Darrow.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough is progressing steadily east early this evening. Synoptic cold front is advancing toward the Atlantic Coast but frontal convection is decidedly weaker as pre frontal buoyancy is not that great, and now suppressed toward lower latitudes, well south of stronger deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms should gradually weaken over the next few hours as boundary layer continues to cool. Isolated thunderstorms will also linger across much of the western U.S. from the southern Rockies, across the Great Basin, into WA/OR. While a few robust storms may be noted for the next few hours, aside from locally gusty winds this activity too should weaken with boundary layer cooling. ..Darrow.. 09/07/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 6 23:50:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 6 23:50:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2046 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607... FOR EASTERN MD TO SOUTHEAST NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 2046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Areas affected...eastern MD to southeast NJ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607... Valid 062134Z - 062230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607 continues. SUMMARY...Limited threat for strong gusts should diminish before 00Z near the southeast portion of remaining WW 607. DISCUSSION...Convection has largely congealed into a southwest/northeast-oriented broken band from the northern Chesapeake into central NJ. This alignment is closely paralleling the deep-layer shear vector and likely is a mitigating factor to more organized potential for strong gusts. Still, a ribbon of mid to upper 80s surface temperatures remains across a portion of eastern MD into southeast NJ. This could support a few sporadic strong gusts, mainly in the 40-60 mph range, for another hour or two before this warm pocket is overturned close to sunset. ..Grams.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39847438 39717415 39277448 38517514 38307599 38537631 38817648 38977644 39347557 39767477 39897448 39847438 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
000-VTZ000-CWZ000-062240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BWI TO 20 WNW ISP TO 25 N GON TO 20 SSW PSM TO 15 WSW AUG TO 25 E BGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...LWX...GYX...CAR...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC015-062240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WINDHAM DEC001-003-062240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE MEC001-011-023-027-062240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN KENNEBEC SAGADAHOC Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
000-VTZ000-CWZ000-062240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BWI TO 20 WNW ISP TO 25 N GON TO 20 SSW PSM TO 15 WSW AUG TO 25 E BGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...LWX...GYX...CAR...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC015-062240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WINDHAM DEC001-003-062240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE MEC001-011-023-027-062240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN KENNEBEC SAGADAHOC Read more

WW 607 SEVERE TSTM CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT CW 061710Z - 070000Z
PAZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CWZ000-070000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Delaware Massachusetts Northeast Maryland Western and Central Maine Southern New Hampshire New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southeast Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a boundary from central Maryland northeastward into parts of New York/Vermont. These storms will intensify through the afternoon, with locally severe storms expected. Damaging winds will be the main risk with the stronger cells, although a few could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Wilmington DE to 25 miles east of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more