Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Monday. ...KS/OK/TX... A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of the forecast period and persist for much of the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location increases. ...NE to Upper Midwest... A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector, it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Pacific Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Monday. ...KS/OK/TX... A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of the forecast period and persist for much of the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location increases. ...NE to Upper Midwest... A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector, it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Pacific Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Monday. ...KS/OK/TX... A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of the forecast period and persist for much of the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location increases. ...NE to Upper Midwest... A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector, it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Pacific Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Monday. ...KS/OK/TX... A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of the forecast period and persist for much of the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location increases. ...NE to Upper Midwest... A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector, it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Pacific Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Monday. ...KS/OK/TX... A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of the forecast period and persist for much of the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location increases. ...NE to Upper Midwest... A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector, it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Pacific Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Monday. ...KS/OK/TX... A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of the forecast period and persist for much of the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location increases. ...NE to Upper Midwest... A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector, it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Pacific Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Monday. ...KS/OK/TX... A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of the forecast period and persist for much of the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location increases. ...NE to Upper Midwest... A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector, it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Pacific Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles on Monday. ...KS/OK/TX... A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of the forecast period and persist for much of the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location increases. ...NE to Upper Midwest... A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector, it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Pacific Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more