Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper ridge situated over the Rockies in between a deep-layer cyclone over OR/northern CA and a series of low amplitude impulses moving east over the mid and lower MO Valley. The upper ridge will gradually shift into the High Plains tonight while a lee trough is the notable low-level feature. A moist axis evident in 12 UTC regional raob data at 850 mb (e.g., Del Rio, TX, Dodge City, KS) and surface observations, will destabilize via strong heating and result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate isolated to widely scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings suggest either multicellular or marginal supercell potential. The steep (8-9 deg C/km) low to mid tropospheric lapse rates will support the risk for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores and outflow surges. As a 35-kt southerly LLJ develops during the evening, one or two clusters may evolve and gradually move east during the evening, with perhaps a continued isolated risk for hail/wind into the late evening before this activity weakens late. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper ridge situated over the Rockies in between a deep-layer cyclone over OR/northern CA and a series of low amplitude impulses moving east over the mid and lower MO Valley. The upper ridge will gradually shift into the High Plains tonight while a lee trough is the notable low-level feature. A moist axis evident in 12 UTC regional raob data at 850 mb (e.g., Del Rio, TX, Dodge City, KS) and surface observations, will destabilize via strong heating and result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate isolated to widely scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings suggest either multicellular or marginal supercell potential. The steep (8-9 deg C/km) low to mid tropospheric lapse rates will support the risk for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores and outflow surges. As a 35-kt southerly LLJ develops during the evening, one or two clusters may evolve and gradually move east during the evening, with perhaps a continued isolated risk for hail/wind into the late evening before this activity weakens late. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper ridge situated over the Rockies in between a deep-layer cyclone over OR/northern CA and a series of low amplitude impulses moving east over the mid and lower MO Valley. The upper ridge will gradually shift into the High Plains tonight while a lee trough is the notable low-level feature. A moist axis evident in 12 UTC regional raob data at 850 mb (e.g., Del Rio, TX, Dodge City, KS) and surface observations, will destabilize via strong heating and result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate isolated to widely scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings suggest either multicellular or marginal supercell potential. The steep (8-9 deg C/km) low to mid tropospheric lapse rates will support the risk for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores and outflow surges. As a 35-kt southerly LLJ develops during the evening, one or two clusters may evolve and gradually move east during the evening, with perhaps a continued isolated risk for hail/wind into the late evening before this activity weakens late. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As shortwave ridging begins to breakdown into this weekend, the upper trough and enhanced southwesterly flow over the Rockies will finally begin to overspread the Plains D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Continued east/southeasterly low-level flow is likely over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, allowing for the return of richer surface moisture. A stalled front extending eastward from the lee low over the Dakotas into the western Great Lakes may serve as a focus for storm development across the Dakotas and MN. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and resulting buoyancy near the low/front, which casts significant uncertainty on severe potential. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft could support some organized severe threat, but confidence in specifics remains too low for 15% probabilities. Farther south, sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms each afternoon into the central and southern Plains. While the main upper trough should begin to weaken later into the weekend, lingering mid-level flow could support some severe risk within a hot and unstable air mass along a surface trough. By early next week, mid-level ridging is expected to rebuild over the central CONUS keeping stronger flow aloft and severe potential limited for the remainder of the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As shortwave ridging begins to breakdown into this weekend, the upper trough and enhanced southwesterly flow over the Rockies will finally begin to overspread the Plains D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Continued east/southeasterly low-level flow is likely over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, allowing for the return of richer surface moisture. A stalled front extending eastward from the lee low over the Dakotas into the western Great Lakes may serve as a focus for storm development across the Dakotas and MN. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and resulting buoyancy near the low/front, which casts significant uncertainty on severe potential. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft could support some organized severe threat, but confidence in specifics remains too low for 15% probabilities. Farther south, sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms each afternoon into the central and southern Plains. While the main upper trough should begin to weaken later into the weekend, lingering mid-level flow could support some severe risk within a hot and unstable air mass along a surface trough. By early next week, mid-level ridging is expected to rebuild over the central CONUS keeping stronger flow aloft and severe potential limited for the remainder of the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As shortwave ridging begins to breakdown into this weekend, the upper trough and enhanced southwesterly flow over the Rockies will finally begin to overspread the Plains D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Continued east/southeasterly low-level flow is likely over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, allowing for the return of richer surface moisture. A stalled front extending eastward from the lee low over the Dakotas into the western Great Lakes may serve as a focus for storm development across the Dakotas and MN. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and resulting buoyancy near the low/front, which casts significant uncertainty on severe potential. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft could support some organized severe threat, but confidence in specifics remains too low for 15% probabilities. Farther south, sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms each afternoon into the central and southern Plains. While the main upper trough should begin to weaken later into the weekend, lingering mid-level flow could support some severe risk within a hot and unstable air mass along a surface trough. By early next week, mid-level ridging is expected to rebuild over the central CONUS keeping stronger flow aloft and severe potential limited for the remainder of the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As shortwave ridging begins to breakdown into this weekend, the upper trough and enhanced southwesterly flow over the Rockies will finally begin to overspread the Plains D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Continued east/southeasterly low-level flow is likely over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, allowing for the return of richer surface moisture. A stalled front extending eastward from the lee low over the Dakotas into the western Great Lakes may serve as a focus for storm development across the Dakotas and MN. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and resulting buoyancy near the low/front, which casts significant uncertainty on severe potential. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft could support some organized severe threat, but confidence in specifics remains too low for 15% probabilities. Farther south, sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms each afternoon into the central and southern Plains. While the main upper trough should begin to weaken later into the weekend, lingering mid-level flow could support some severe risk within a hot and unstable air mass along a surface trough. By early next week, mid-level ridging is expected to rebuild over the central CONUS keeping stronger flow aloft and severe potential limited for the remainder of the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... As shortwave ridging begins to breakdown into this weekend, the upper trough and enhanced southwesterly flow over the Rockies will finally begin to overspread the Plains D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Continued east/southeasterly low-level flow is likely over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, allowing for the return of richer surface moisture. A stalled front extending eastward from the lee low over the Dakotas into the western Great Lakes may serve as a focus for storm development across the Dakotas and MN. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and resulting buoyancy near the low/front, which casts significant uncertainty on severe potential. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft could support some organized severe threat, but confidence in specifics remains too low for 15% probabilities. Farther south, sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms each afternoon into the central and southern Plains. While the main upper trough should begin to weaken later into the weekend, lingering mid-level flow could support some severe risk within a hot and unstable air mass along a surface trough. By early next week, mid-level ridging is expected to rebuild over the central CONUS keeping stronger flow aloft and severe potential limited for the remainder of the extended forecast period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Montana and the Dakotas, as well as the southern High Plains and Intermountain West Thursday. Uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity remains high. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly drift eastward Thursday with several smaller shortwaves passing through it. An embedded perturbation along the eastern flank of the low will accompany a mid-level jet over portions of the northern Rockies and Plains. This will help deepen a lee cyclone and trailing lee trough much of the High Plains. ...Montana and western Dakotas... As the upper low gradually edges closer, an embedded shortwave trough and mid-level jet will pass over the northern Rockies and Plains Thursday afternoon. The surface low over central MT should deepen, increasing low-level southeasterly flow. A warm front, extending southeastward from the surface low, will gradually lift northward with 60+ F dewpoints in its wake over the northern High Plains. Modest low-level convergence along the trailing lee trough and near a weak cold front emanating from the low could support isolated storms over eastern MT and the western Dakotas. With sufficient buoyancy and increasing flow aloft from the upper jet, some potential for organized multicells or transient supercells is apparent. However, model solutions vary considerable on the degree of capping and resulting storm development. Given these uncertainties, no severe probabilities will be added currently, though some risk for severe gusts and hail could be needed in future updates. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Farther south, the lee trough may serve as a focus for isolated storm development Thursday afternoon amidst strong heating and increasing low-level moisture over the central and southern High Plains. However, forcing for ascent beneath the shortwave ridge appears weak as the main trough and shortwave are likely to remain over the Rockies and Four Corners where low-level moisture is modest. While isolated high-based storms could develop and pose a risk for locally gusty winds, confidence in a broader severe risk is low. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Montana and the Dakotas, as well as the southern High Plains and Intermountain West Thursday. Uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity remains high. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly drift eastward Thursday with several smaller shortwaves passing through it. An embedded perturbation along the eastern flank of the low will accompany a mid-level jet over portions of the northern Rockies and Plains. This will help deepen a lee cyclone and trailing lee trough much of the High Plains. ...Montana and western Dakotas... As the upper low gradually edges closer, an embedded shortwave trough and mid-level jet will pass over the northern Rockies and Plains Thursday afternoon. The surface low over central MT should deepen, increasing low-level southeasterly flow. A warm front, extending southeastward from the surface low, will gradually lift northward with 60+ F dewpoints in its wake over the northern High Plains. Modest low-level convergence along the trailing lee trough and near a weak cold front emanating from the low could support isolated storms over eastern MT and the western Dakotas. With sufficient buoyancy and increasing flow aloft from the upper jet, some potential for organized multicells or transient supercells is apparent. However, model solutions vary considerable on the degree of capping and resulting storm development. Given these uncertainties, no severe probabilities will be added currently, though some risk for severe gusts and hail could be needed in future updates. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Farther south, the lee trough may serve as a focus for isolated storm development Thursday afternoon amidst strong heating and increasing low-level moisture over the central and southern High Plains. However, forcing for ascent beneath the shortwave ridge appears weak as the main trough and shortwave are likely to remain over the Rockies and Four Corners where low-level moisture is modest. While isolated high-based storms could develop and pose a risk for locally gusty winds, confidence in a broader severe risk is low. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Montana and the Dakotas, as well as the southern High Plains and Intermountain West Thursday. Uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity remains high. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly drift eastward Thursday with several smaller shortwaves passing through it. An embedded perturbation along the eastern flank of the low will accompany a mid-level jet over portions of the northern Rockies and Plains. This will help deepen a lee cyclone and trailing lee trough much of the High Plains. ...Montana and western Dakotas... As the upper low gradually edges closer, an embedded shortwave trough and mid-level jet will pass over the northern Rockies and Plains Thursday afternoon. The surface low over central MT should deepen, increasing low-level southeasterly flow. A warm front, extending southeastward from the surface low, will gradually lift northward with 60+ F dewpoints in its wake over the northern High Plains. Modest low-level convergence along the trailing lee trough and near a weak cold front emanating from the low could support isolated storms over eastern MT and the western Dakotas. With sufficient buoyancy and increasing flow aloft from the upper jet, some potential for organized multicells or transient supercells is apparent. However, model solutions vary considerable on the degree of capping and resulting storm development. Given these uncertainties, no severe probabilities will be added currently, though some risk for severe gusts and hail could be needed in future updates. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Farther south, the lee trough may serve as a focus for isolated storm development Thursday afternoon amidst strong heating and increasing low-level moisture over the central and southern High Plains. However, forcing for ascent beneath the shortwave ridge appears weak as the main trough and shortwave are likely to remain over the Rockies and Four Corners where low-level moisture is modest. While isolated high-based storms could develop and pose a risk for locally gusty winds, confidence in a broader severe risk is low. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Montana and the Dakotas, as well as the southern High Plains and Intermountain West Thursday. Uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity remains high. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly drift eastward Thursday with several smaller shortwaves passing through it. An embedded perturbation along the eastern flank of the low will accompany a mid-level jet over portions of the northern Rockies and Plains. This will help deepen a lee cyclone and trailing lee trough much of the High Plains. ...Montana and western Dakotas... As the upper low gradually edges closer, an embedded shortwave trough and mid-level jet will pass over the northern Rockies and Plains Thursday afternoon. The surface low over central MT should deepen, increasing low-level southeasterly flow. A warm front, extending southeastward from the surface low, will gradually lift northward with 60+ F dewpoints in its wake over the northern High Plains. Modest low-level convergence along the trailing lee trough and near a weak cold front emanating from the low could support isolated storms over eastern MT and the western Dakotas. With sufficient buoyancy and increasing flow aloft from the upper jet, some potential for organized multicells or transient supercells is apparent. However, model solutions vary considerable on the degree of capping and resulting storm development. Given these uncertainties, no severe probabilities will be added currently, though some risk for severe gusts and hail could be needed in future updates. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Farther south, the lee trough may serve as a focus for isolated storm development Thursday afternoon amidst strong heating and increasing low-level moisture over the central and southern High Plains. However, forcing for ascent beneath the shortwave ridge appears weak as the main trough and shortwave are likely to remain over the Rockies and Four Corners where low-level moisture is modest. While isolated high-based storms could develop and pose a risk for locally gusty winds, confidence in a broader severe risk is low. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Montana and the Dakotas, as well as the southern High Plains and Intermountain West Thursday. Uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity remains high. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly drift eastward Thursday with several smaller shortwaves passing through it. An embedded perturbation along the eastern flank of the low will accompany a mid-level jet over portions of the northern Rockies and Plains. This will help deepen a lee cyclone and trailing lee trough much of the High Plains. ...Montana and western Dakotas... As the upper low gradually edges closer, an embedded shortwave trough and mid-level jet will pass over the northern Rockies and Plains Thursday afternoon. The surface low over central MT should deepen, increasing low-level southeasterly flow. A warm front, extending southeastward from the surface low, will gradually lift northward with 60+ F dewpoints in its wake over the northern High Plains. Modest low-level convergence along the trailing lee trough and near a weak cold front emanating from the low could support isolated storms over eastern MT and the western Dakotas. With sufficient buoyancy and increasing flow aloft from the upper jet, some potential for organized multicells or transient supercells is apparent. However, model solutions vary considerable on the degree of capping and resulting storm development. Given these uncertainties, no severe probabilities will be added currently, though some risk for severe gusts and hail could be needed in future updates. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Farther south, the lee trough may serve as a focus for isolated storm development Thursday afternoon amidst strong heating and increasing low-level moisture over the central and southern High Plains. However, forcing for ascent beneath the shortwave ridge appears weak as the main trough and shortwave are likely to remain over the Rockies and Four Corners where low-level moisture is modest. While isolated high-based storms could develop and pose a risk for locally gusty winds, confidence in a broader severe risk is low. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more

MD 2052 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090543Z - 090815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue for a couple more hours in parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The threat should be too marginal for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the central Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with this feature is supporting isolated thunderstorm development over parts of south-central Nebraska. This activity is located along the eastern edge of a north-to-south axis of moderate instability, located from central Nebraska into western Kansas. Short-term model forecasts suggest the storms will continue to persist over the next couple of hours and will move south-southeastward into north-central Kansas. These cells are elevated due to a sharp low-level temperature inversion, evident on RAP forecast soundings. The WSR-88D VWP at Hastings suggests that effective shear around 30 knots. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated large hail threat. The threat could persist for a couple more hours. ..Broyles/Smith.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39089781 39339732 39759732 40369757 40719788 40969823 41039893 40849944 40439954 39899935 39329891 39129858 39049822 39089781 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Wednesday, not much change in the upper-level pattern is expected from Tuesday. The upper-level trough in the West will shift into more of the Great Basin and the mid-level jet will extend farther northward. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Eastern Great Basin into Idaho/Wyoming... Dry and breezy conditions appear likely during the afternoon. Winds of 15-25 mph will be possible along with RH of 15-20%. Even with these elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions, fuels are not likely to become receptive enough to support more than a locally elevated risk. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... While thunderstorms will be possible in association with the upper low, recent precipitation and substantial cloud cover should generally limit the overall risk for lightning ignitions. A continued downward trend in fuel receptiveness is expected Wednesday. Highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Wednesday, not much change in the upper-level pattern is expected from Tuesday. The upper-level trough in the West will shift into more of the Great Basin and the mid-level jet will extend farther northward. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Eastern Great Basin into Idaho/Wyoming... Dry and breezy conditions appear likely during the afternoon. Winds of 15-25 mph will be possible along with RH of 15-20%. Even with these elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions, fuels are not likely to become receptive enough to support more than a locally elevated risk. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... While thunderstorms will be possible in association with the upper low, recent precipitation and substantial cloud cover should generally limit the overall risk for lightning ignitions. A continued downward trend in fuel receptiveness is expected Wednesday. Highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Wednesday, not much change in the upper-level pattern is expected from Tuesday. The upper-level trough in the West will shift into more of the Great Basin and the mid-level jet will extend farther northward. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Eastern Great Basin into Idaho/Wyoming... Dry and breezy conditions appear likely during the afternoon. Winds of 15-25 mph will be possible along with RH of 15-20%. Even with these elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions, fuels are not likely to become receptive enough to support more than a locally elevated risk. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... While thunderstorms will be possible in association with the upper low, recent precipitation and substantial cloud cover should generally limit the overall risk for lightning ignitions. A continued downward trend in fuel receptiveness is expected Wednesday. Highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Wednesday, not much change in the upper-level pattern is expected from Tuesday. The upper-level trough in the West will shift into more of the Great Basin and the mid-level jet will extend farther northward. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Eastern Great Basin into Idaho/Wyoming... Dry and breezy conditions appear likely during the afternoon. Winds of 15-25 mph will be possible along with RH of 15-20%. Even with these elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions, fuels are not likely to become receptive enough to support more than a locally elevated risk. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... While thunderstorms will be possible in association with the upper low, recent precipitation and substantial cloud cover should generally limit the overall risk for lightning ignitions. A continued downward trend in fuel receptiveness is expected Wednesday. Highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Wednesday, not much change in the upper-level pattern is expected from Tuesday. The upper-level trough in the West will shift into more of the Great Basin and the mid-level jet will extend farther northward. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Eastern Great Basin into Idaho/Wyoming... Dry and breezy conditions appear likely during the afternoon. Winds of 15-25 mph will be possible along with RH of 15-20%. Even with these elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions, fuels are not likely to become receptive enough to support more than a locally elevated risk. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... While thunderstorms will be possible in association with the upper low, recent precipitation and substantial cloud cover should generally limit the overall risk for lightning ignitions. A continued downward trend in fuel receptiveness is expected Wednesday. Highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but severe potential is overall low. ...High Plains... East of a deepening upper low and 40-50 kt mid-level jet over the Great Basin and Northwest, shortwave ridging will persist across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A broad lee trough is expected to sharpen through the afternoon as weak ascent from the upper trough and mid-level jet glance the western edge of the upper ridge. The strongest ascent will be focused north and west over MT where a weak surface cyclone is expected to form by Wednesday afternoon. This will help draw richer low-level moisture westward later in the afternoon/evening. The late arrival of the more robust moisture suggests buoyancy will be limited, while capping remains stout over the northern and central High Plains. Still, robust heating and sufficient low-level moistening will allow for isolated high-based thunderstorms along the length of the surface trough across eastern MT/WY and western SD. A stray gust or two is possible, but limited buoyancy and forcing suggest the severe risk is low. Farther south, a weak secondary low is expected to form over the Raton Mesa. Enhanced easterly low-level upslope flow could support isolated storms late afternoon or into early evening. However, weak subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures beneath the upper ridge suggest remnant capping is likely to remain in place, limiting storm coverage/intensity. While moderate buoyancy is expected (1500-2500 J/kg) and an isolated stronger gust is possible, overall severe potential appears rather limited. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... Beneath the upper low, broad ascent and the southerly mid-level jet will overspread modest low-level moisture ahead of a weak cold front over the Intermountain West. Filtered daytime heating between remnant cloud cover will aide in scattered storm development across the higher terrain from eastern WA/OR into northern ID and western MT Wednesday afternoon. The increase in southerly flow aloft will elongate mid and upper-level hodographs to some degree, with 20-30 kt of bulk shear expected. This could support a few stronger storms, especially over portions of central ID and into western MT where ascent will be maximized. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse rates, a few strong gusts are possible. However, the threat for more organized/persistent severe storms appears limited by weaker buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) and moisture. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2025 Read more