Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Washington State... Some retractions were made to the southeastern extent of the isolated dry thunderstorm area across eastern WA. The minor changes were based on recent rainfall and distribution of ongoing convection across the Columbia Basin. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Washington Cascades and higher terrain of northeastern WA. Pockets of drier, heavier fuels could still be receptive to new ignitions through today outside of heavier rain cores. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Washington State... Some retractions were made to the southeastern extent of the isolated dry thunderstorm area across eastern WA. The minor changes were based on recent rainfall and distribution of ongoing convection across the Columbia Basin. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Washington Cascades and higher terrain of northeastern WA. Pockets of drier, heavier fuels could still be receptive to new ignitions through today outside of heavier rain cores. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Washington State... Some retractions were made to the southeastern extent of the isolated dry thunderstorm area across eastern WA. The minor changes were based on recent rainfall and distribution of ongoing convection across the Columbia Basin. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Washington Cascades and higher terrain of northeastern WA. Pockets of drier, heavier fuels could still be receptive to new ignitions through today outside of heavier rain cores. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Washington State... Some retractions were made to the southeastern extent of the isolated dry thunderstorm area across eastern WA. The minor changes were based on recent rainfall and distribution of ongoing convection across the Columbia Basin. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Washington Cascades and higher terrain of northeastern WA. Pockets of drier, heavier fuels could still be receptive to new ignitions through today outside of heavier rain cores. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Washington State... Some retractions were made to the southeastern extent of the isolated dry thunderstorm area across eastern WA. The minor changes were based on recent rainfall and distribution of ongoing convection across the Columbia Basin. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Washington Cascades and higher terrain of northeastern WA. Pockets of drier, heavier fuels could still be receptive to new ignitions through today outside of heavier rain cores. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Washington State... Some retractions were made to the southeastern extent of the isolated dry thunderstorm area across eastern WA. The minor changes were based on recent rainfall and distribution of ongoing convection across the Columbia Basin. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Washington Cascades and higher terrain of northeastern WA. Pockets of drier, heavier fuels could still be receptive to new ignitions through today outside of heavier rain cores. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Washington State... Some retractions were made to the southeastern extent of the isolated dry thunderstorm area across eastern WA. The minor changes were based on recent rainfall and distribution of ongoing convection across the Columbia Basin. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Washington Cascades and higher terrain of northeastern WA. Pockets of drier, heavier fuels could still be receptive to new ignitions through today outside of heavier rain cores. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to make slow eastward progress today. Stronger mid-level winds will push into the southern and eastern Great Basin. Farther north and west, lift from the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. ...Northwest/northern Rockies... Thunderstorms are possible periodically in the Northwest. Portions of the Columbia Basin may see storms both in the morning and overnight tonight. Most areas have had recent precipitation and fuels indices have been trending toward lower fire weather concerns. However, there are pockets of remaining dry fuels in the Columbia Basin where there will be some concern for lightning ignitions. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... With the stronger mid-level winds overspreading the region, 15-20 mph winds (locally up to 25 mph) can be expected in southern/eastern Nevada into western Utah. RH could locally dip as low as 10-15%, but 15-20% will be more common. Given the current state of fuels, elevated conditions will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains states. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS. Backed low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few severe storms through the afternoon. Large hail appears to be the main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the strongest cells. Activity may persist through much of the evening as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. 12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a small SLGT risk for this region. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper ridge situated over the Rockies in between a deep-layer cyclone over OR/northern CA and a series of low amplitude impulses moving east over the mid and lower MO Valley. The upper ridge will gradually shift into the High Plains tonight while a lee trough is the notable low-level feature. A moist axis evident in 12 UTC regional raob data at 850 mb (e.g., Del Rio, TX, Dodge City, KS) and surface observations, will destabilize via strong heating and result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate isolated to widely scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings suggest either multicellular or marginal supercell potential. The steep (8-9 deg C/km) low to mid tropospheric lapse rates will support the risk for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores and outflow surges. As a 35-kt southerly LLJ develops during the evening, one or two clusters may evolve and gradually move east during the evening, with perhaps a continued isolated risk for hail/wind into the late evening before this activity weakens late. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper ridge situated over the Rockies in between a deep-layer cyclone over OR/northern CA and a series of low amplitude impulses moving east over the mid and lower MO Valley. The upper ridge will gradually shift into the High Plains tonight while a lee trough is the notable low-level feature. A moist axis evident in 12 UTC regional raob data at 850 mb (e.g., Del Rio, TX, Dodge City, KS) and surface observations, will destabilize via strong heating and result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate isolated to widely scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings suggest either multicellular or marginal supercell potential. The steep (8-9 deg C/km) low to mid tropospheric lapse rates will support the risk for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores and outflow surges. As a 35-kt southerly LLJ develops during the evening, one or two clusters may evolve and gradually move east during the evening, with perhaps a continued isolated risk for hail/wind into the late evening before this activity weakens late. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper ridge situated over the Rockies in between a deep-layer cyclone over OR/northern CA and a series of low amplitude impulses moving east over the mid and lower MO Valley. The upper ridge will gradually shift into the High Plains tonight while a lee trough is the notable low-level feature. A moist axis evident in 12 UTC regional raob data at 850 mb (e.g., Del Rio, TX, Dodge City, KS) and surface observations, will destabilize via strong heating and result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate isolated to widely scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings suggest either multicellular or marginal supercell potential. The steep (8-9 deg C/km) low to mid tropospheric lapse rates will support the risk for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores and outflow surges. As a 35-kt southerly LLJ develops during the evening, one or two clusters may evolve and gradually move east during the evening, with perhaps a continued isolated risk for hail/wind into the late evening before this activity weakens late. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper ridge situated over the Rockies in between a deep-layer cyclone over OR/northern CA and a series of low amplitude impulses moving east over the mid and lower MO Valley. The upper ridge will gradually shift into the High Plains tonight while a lee trough is the notable low-level feature. A moist axis evident in 12 UTC regional raob data at 850 mb (e.g., Del Rio, TX, Dodge City, KS) and surface observations, will destabilize via strong heating and result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance continues to indicate isolated to widely scattered storms developing late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast soundings suggest either multicellular or marginal supercell potential. The steep (8-9 deg C/km) low to mid tropospheric lapse rates will support the risk for isolated severe gusts with the stronger cores and outflow surges. As a 35-kt southerly LLJ develops during the evening, one or two clusters may evolve and gradually move east during the evening, with perhaps a continued isolated risk for hail/wind into the late evening before this activity weakens late. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/09/2025 Read more