Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. However, stronger mid-level flow may nudge southward as the upper trough amplifies through the period in the Northwest. Surface troughing will develop in the northern High Plains. ...Northern Great Basin... Another day of elevated fire weather can be expected. With the stronger mid-level winds extending more to the south, greater spatial coverage of at least briefly 20+ mph winds may occur. Overall, however, 15-20 mph winds will be most common. RH of 10-20% will be possible in Nevada while Idaho will more likely see 15-20% by the afternoon. Model guidance does show some potential for high cloud cover which could also limit the duration of critical conditions. Ensemble guidance shows low probability of sustained critical conditions likely on account of those uncertainties. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the southern half of the U.S. today. A weak upper-level low will be positioned over southern California into northern Baja. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist across the northern tier states with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. A surface trough will deepen in the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Columbia Basin into the northern Great Basin... Offshore high pressure and the deepening trough to the east will promote modestly strong westerly winds across the Cascades. Winds in the Columbia Basin will reach 15-20 mph with perhaps higher speeds within some of the Cascade gaps. RH of 15-20% is possible by the afternoon. In the northern Great Basin, surface winds of 15-20 mph are possible with RH falling into the 10-20% range. Stronger winds are possible in the Snake River Plain as mid-level winds will be stronger and better aligned with the terrain. There, up to 25 mph winds will be possible for a short duration. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 ..DEAN..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 ..DEAN..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN Read more

MD 1715 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524... Valid 190201Z - 190300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of greater tornado risk is evident in central Nebraska. This threat will persist for 1-2 more hours. DISCUSSION...A storm which has produced a few reported tornadoes over the last 30-45 minutes continues to move southward. The KLNX VAD has shown a steady increase in low-level SRH this evening as the low-level jet increases. Based on observed storm motion, SRH is higher than using standard Bunkers estimates. While a localized corridor of tornado risk is evident, this threat will likely only last another 1-2 hours before a gradual increase in MLCIN will mitigate this potential. Aside from the tornado threat, very large hail and severe winds could occur with this supercell. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF... LAT...LON 41869942 41759976 41770019 42070026 42370028 42659992 42539950 41869942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-017-027-041-051-071-089-101-103-107-111-113-115- 117-135-139-149-171-179-183-190340- Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-017-027-041-051-071-089-101-103-107-111-113-115- 117-135-139-149-171-179-183-190340- Read more

MD 1714 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into south-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190019Z - 190215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Though storm coverage is uncertain, some increase in severe potential is anticipated in parts of north-central Nebraska over the next few hours. A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Signs of convective development are evident on visible satellite near a weak surface low in north-central Nebraska. Some high-based activity is also present farther southwest near North Platte. Strong buoyancy has developed in central Nebraska where temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Effective shear of 35-40 kts would support organized storms/supercells capable of mainly large hail and severe wind gusts. Temperatures aloft are warmer with southern extent which is contributing to slow development and uncertain storm coverage. However, a modest increase the low-level jet may help initiate additional storms by mid/late evening. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41710169 42870017 43349943 43239804 42779784 42019903 41789973 41490057 41500173 41710169 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0524 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more