Severe Storms

WW 0608 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DDC TO 45 SSE DDC TO 25 NW AVK TO 20 N PNC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051 ..JEWELL..09/09/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 608 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-119-175-090240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK MEADE SEWARD OKC003-007-043-045-047-053-059-093-129-139-151-153-090240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER MAJOR ROGER MILLS TEXAS WOODS WOODWARD TXC195-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-090240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread south across southwestern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle this evening. Large hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Scattered severe thunderstorms have evolved along the southwestern flank of a short-wave trough as it digs across eastern KS/northern OK. The most robust activity is occurring along the eastern fringe of an instability corridor that extends across the High Plains. 00z soundings from AMA and DDC support this with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Wind profiles also support organized rotating updrafts and storm motions favor this convection driving primarily due south, especially given the orientation of the instability axis. Latest radar data suggests roughly half a dozen hail-producing updrafts, primarily located within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #608. Over the next few hours, LLJ may increase a bit across the TX/OK Panhandle region, and this also favors southward propagation. Large hail is the primary concern - some stones may exceed 2 inches. Farther north, isolated severe thunderstorms have evolved along a surface boundary draped across northwestern NE into south central SD. Strong boundary-layer heating proved instrumental in this development, but nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening over the next few hours. Until then, a MRGL risk has been added to this region to account for isolated large hail, primarily through mid evening. ..Darrow.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread south across southwestern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle this evening. Large hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Scattered severe thunderstorms have evolved along the southwestern flank of a short-wave trough as it digs across eastern KS/northern OK. The most robust activity is occurring along the eastern fringe of an instability corridor that extends across the High Plains. 00z soundings from AMA and DDC support this with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Wind profiles also support organized rotating updrafts and storm motions favor this convection driving primarily due south, especially given the orientation of the instability axis. Latest radar data suggests roughly half a dozen hail-producing updrafts, primarily located within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #608. Over the next few hours, LLJ may increase a bit across the TX/OK Panhandle region, and this also favors southward propagation. Large hail is the primary concern - some stones may exceed 2 inches. Farther north, isolated severe thunderstorms have evolved along a surface boundary draped across northwestern NE into south central SD. Strong boundary-layer heating proved instrumental in this development, but nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening over the next few hours. Until then, a MRGL risk has been added to this region to account for isolated large hail, primarily through mid evening. ..Darrow.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread south across southwestern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle this evening. Large hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Scattered severe thunderstorms have evolved along the southwestern flank of a short-wave trough as it digs across eastern KS/northern OK. The most robust activity is occurring along the eastern fringe of an instability corridor that extends across the High Plains. 00z soundings from AMA and DDC support this with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Wind profiles also support organized rotating updrafts and storm motions favor this convection driving primarily due south, especially given the orientation of the instability axis. Latest radar data suggests roughly half a dozen hail-producing updrafts, primarily located within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #608. Over the next few hours, LLJ may increase a bit across the TX/OK Panhandle region, and this also favors southward propagation. Large hail is the primary concern - some stones may exceed 2 inches. Farther north, isolated severe thunderstorms have evolved along a surface boundary draped across northwestern NE into south central SD. Strong boundary-layer heating proved instrumental in this development, but nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening over the next few hours. Until then, a MRGL risk has been added to this region to account for isolated large hail, primarily through mid evening. ..Darrow.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread south across southwestern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle this evening. Large hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Scattered severe thunderstorms have evolved along the southwestern flank of a short-wave trough as it digs across eastern KS/northern OK. The most robust activity is occurring along the eastern fringe of an instability corridor that extends across the High Plains. 00z soundings from AMA and DDC support this with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Wind profiles also support organized rotating updrafts and storm motions favor this convection driving primarily due south, especially given the orientation of the instability axis. Latest radar data suggests roughly half a dozen hail-producing updrafts, primarily located within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #608. Over the next few hours, LLJ may increase a bit across the TX/OK Panhandle region, and this also favors southward propagation. Large hail is the primary concern - some stones may exceed 2 inches. Farther north, isolated severe thunderstorms have evolved along a surface boundary draped across northwestern NE into south central SD. Strong boundary-layer heating proved instrumental in this development, but nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening over the next few hours. Until then, a MRGL risk has been added to this region to account for isolated large hail, primarily through mid evening. ..Darrow.. 09/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad upper-level trough moving into the western CONUS will introduce cooler temperatures, higher relative humidity as well as areas of considerable rain across the Western U.S. in the Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday period. The heaviest precipitation from showers and thunderstorms is expected across northwestern CA, OR into the Northern Rockies, mitigating fire weather concerns. Strong southwest mid-level flow ahead of the trough will promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, allowing for at least elevated fire weather concerns. However, fuel receptiveness remains subdued from recent precipitation and high relative humidity events, limiting overall wildfire spread potential. Surface high pressure will promote a relatively benign fire weather pattern including light surface winds and dry conditions across much of the eastern U.S. through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough and attendant cold front could bring additional precipitation to the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley early next week, although persistent dry conditions across the Deep South will aid in drying fuels through early next week. ..Williams.. 09/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 8 01:47:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 8 01:47:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts remain possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, especially this evening. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough has progressed through the western U.S. ridge and is now digging southeast across eastern WY/CO. Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature within an air mass characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 00z sounding from DDC supports this with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 35kt. Over the next few hours LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwestern NE. This should aid southeast propagation across the central High Plains, and isolated hail/wind may continue to be observed with the more robust updrafts. Given the expected increase in LLJ, some of this activity could linger into the overnight hours. ..Darrow.. 09/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts remain possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, especially this evening. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough has progressed through the western U.S. ridge and is now digging southeast across eastern WY/CO. Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature within an air mass characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 00z sounding from DDC supports this with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 35kt. Over the next few hours LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwestern NE. This should aid southeast propagation across the central High Plains, and isolated hail/wind may continue to be observed with the more robust updrafts. Given the expected increase in LLJ, some of this activity could linger into the overnight hours. ..Darrow.. 09/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts remain possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains, especially this evening. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough has progressed through the western U.S. ridge and is now digging southeast across eastern WY/CO. Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of this feature within an air mass characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 00z sounding from DDC supports this with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 35kt. Over the next few hours LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwestern NE. This should aid southeast propagation across the central High Plains, and isolated hail/wind may continue to be observed with the more robust updrafts. Given the expected increase in LLJ, some of this activity could linger into the overnight hours. ..Darrow.. 09/08/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 7 23:01:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2047 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Areas affected...the south-central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072157Z - 080000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and localized severe gusts are possible through mid-evening across mainly the northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado portion of the south-central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Initial discrete cells have increased off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa vicinity of northeast NM and in a separate southwest/northeast-oriented corridor from Pueblo to Lincoln County, CO. Towering Cu and incipient Cb development is also underway along a surface trough over southeast CO, northeastward from the NM convection. With a west to east gradient of surface dew points from the mid 50s to low 60s out ahead of the Raton Mesa/southeast CO activity, the best chance for sporadic severe hail/wind gusts may be in this corridor where a moderate combination of buoyancy/deep-layer shear persists longest. Convection farther north will at least have a near-term threat for isolated severe but should wane in a few hours, especially if sustained development occurs to its southeast. ..Grams/Mosier.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36120511 36790428 37250401 37700408 38290441 38810442 39110404 39400327 39390252 38450179 37990164 37240191 36540245 35430369 35390486 36120511 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2048 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Areas affected...Portions of North and Central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072159Z - 072300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms along the Atlantic sea breeze boundary may produce wind damage. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along an outflow boundary and the Atlantic sea breeze boundary. On the southern fringe of a broad upper trough across the East, effective shear has been marginally enhanced. The strongest shear will be generally north of the outflow boundary, but augmentation along the sea breeze boundary may allow for a few stronger storms to form within that zone. The strongest activity will tend to propagate southward over the next couple of hours. Shear is strong enough for brief, marginal supercell structures (some weak rotation was noted on KMLB/KJAX velocity imagery). Isolated wind damage is possible late this afternoon. ..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29298244 29648244 29828181 29348106 28988082 28738104 28798173 29298244 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 7 21:38:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more