Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe wind gusts/hail are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon through the early evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a low/trough over the eastern Pacific with a downstream ridge over the Rockies. A couple of weak disturbances are cresting the ridge and may aid in storm development later this afternoon/evening over the central High Plains later today. In the low levels, a lee trough and an associated moisture plume over the High Plains will provide a focus for isolated to widely scattered storms. Strong heating over the High Plains will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy by late afternoon. South-southeasterly low-level winds veering to around 20-kt northwesterly mid-level flow will support some modest updraft organization. The stronger storms may yield an isolated severe-hail (diameter 1.5 inches or less) and wind-gust (55-65 mph) threat. A small cluster or two is expected to evolve during the evening coincident with an increase in the LLJ. This activity will likely move east-southeast into western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, where a cooling boundary layer and increasing CINH will act to limit severe potential by mid-late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe wind gusts/hail are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon through the early evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a low/trough over the eastern Pacific with a downstream ridge over the Rockies. A couple of weak disturbances are cresting the ridge and may aid in storm development later this afternoon/evening over the central High Plains later today. In the low levels, a lee trough and an associated moisture plume over the High Plains will provide a focus for isolated to widely scattered storms. Strong heating over the High Plains will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy by late afternoon. South-southeasterly low-level winds veering to around 20-kt northwesterly mid-level flow will support some modest updraft organization. The stronger storms may yield an isolated severe-hail (diameter 1.5 inches or less) and wind-gust (55-65 mph) threat. A small cluster or two is expected to evolve during the evening coincident with an increase in the LLJ. This activity will likely move east-southeast into western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, where a cooling boundary layer and increasing CINH will act to limit severe potential by mid-late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe wind gusts/hail are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon through the early evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a low/trough over the eastern Pacific with a downstream ridge over the Rockies. A couple of weak disturbances are cresting the ridge and may aid in storm development later this afternoon/evening over the central High Plains later today. In the low levels, a lee trough and an associated moisture plume over the High Plains will provide a focus for isolated to widely scattered storms. Strong heating over the High Plains will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy by late afternoon. South-southeasterly low-level winds veering to around 20-kt northwesterly mid-level flow will support some modest updraft organization. The stronger storms may yield an isolated severe-hail (diameter 1.5 inches or less) and wind-gust (55-65 mph) threat. A small cluster or two is expected to evolve during the evening coincident with an increase in the LLJ. This activity will likely move east-southeast into western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, where a cooling boundary layer and increasing CINH will act to limit severe potential by mid-late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe wind gusts/hail are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon through the early evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a low/trough over the eastern Pacific with a downstream ridge over the Rockies. A couple of weak disturbances are cresting the ridge and may aid in storm development later this afternoon/evening over the central High Plains later today. In the low levels, a lee trough and an associated moisture plume over the High Plains will provide a focus for isolated to widely scattered storms. Strong heating over the High Plains will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy by late afternoon. South-southeasterly low-level winds veering to around 20-kt northwesterly mid-level flow will support some modest updraft organization. The stronger storms may yield an isolated severe-hail (diameter 1.5 inches or less) and wind-gust (55-65 mph) threat. A small cluster or two is expected to evolve during the evening coincident with an increase in the LLJ. This activity will likely move east-southeast into western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, where a cooling boundary layer and increasing CINH will act to limit severe potential by mid-late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe wind gusts/hail are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon through the early evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a low/trough over the eastern Pacific with a downstream ridge over the Rockies. A couple of weak disturbances are cresting the ridge and may aid in storm development later this afternoon/evening over the central High Plains later today. In the low levels, a lee trough and an associated moisture plume over the High Plains will provide a focus for isolated to widely scattered storms. Strong heating over the High Plains will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy by late afternoon. South-southeasterly low-level winds veering to around 20-kt northwesterly mid-level flow will support some modest updraft organization. The stronger storms may yield an isolated severe-hail (diameter 1.5 inches or less) and wind-gust (55-65 mph) threat. A small cluster or two is expected to evolve during the evening coincident with an increase in the LLJ. This activity will likely move east-southeast into western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, where a cooling boundary layer and increasing CINH will act to limit severe potential by mid-late evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... The mid-level flow pattern across the US is forecast to become more stagnant into the extended-range forecast period as the western US upper low deepens and shortwave ridging over the Plains moves slowly eastward. Broad troughing over the East should gradually consolidate, slowing eastward progress of the upper ridge. As the western trough slowly approaches the Rockies, a lee trough should sharpen each afternoon with a narrow zone of moisture return along and east into parts of the High Plains. Sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps some severe risk, near the lee trough as smaller embedded perturbations eject eastward periodically. However, with only slow movement of the upper ridge expected, forcing for ascent should remain modest until early next weekend. Somewhat greater severe potential may develop D6/Friday or D7/Saturday as the primary upper trough begins to emerge over the Plains. However, given the uncertainties associated with the smaller scale features, and the timing of the main trough, limited confidence exists regarding severe potential in the extended forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... The mid-level flow pattern across the US is forecast to become more stagnant into the extended-range forecast period as the western US upper low deepens and shortwave ridging over the Plains moves slowly eastward. Broad troughing over the East should gradually consolidate, slowing eastward progress of the upper ridge. As the western trough slowly approaches the Rockies, a lee trough should sharpen each afternoon with a narrow zone of moisture return along and east into parts of the High Plains. Sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps some severe risk, near the lee trough as smaller embedded perturbations eject eastward periodically. However, with only slow movement of the upper ridge expected, forcing for ascent should remain modest until early next weekend. Somewhat greater severe potential may develop D6/Friday or D7/Saturday as the primary upper trough begins to emerge over the Plains. However, given the uncertainties associated with the smaller scale features, and the timing of the main trough, limited confidence exists regarding severe potential in the extended forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... The mid-level flow pattern across the US is forecast to become more stagnant into the extended-range forecast period as the western US upper low deepens and shortwave ridging over the Plains moves slowly eastward. Broad troughing over the East should gradually consolidate, slowing eastward progress of the upper ridge. As the western trough slowly approaches the Rockies, a lee trough should sharpen each afternoon with a narrow zone of moisture return along and east into parts of the High Plains. Sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps some severe risk, near the lee trough as smaller embedded perturbations eject eastward periodically. However, with only slow movement of the upper ridge expected, forcing for ascent should remain modest until early next weekend. Somewhat greater severe potential may develop D6/Friday or D7/Saturday as the primary upper trough begins to emerge over the Plains. However, given the uncertainties associated with the smaller scale features, and the timing of the main trough, limited confidence exists regarding severe potential in the extended forecast. Read more