Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. A broad open wave trough will deepen across the western US, bringing cooler temperatures across the Pacific Northwest into northern California where the driest fuels and recent fires have been most active. Though thunderstorm chances will continue with the influence of the trough, activity should be trending wetter and possibly even showery at times. This in combination will cooler temperatures should help mitigate some of the risk for new starts in addition to recent precipitation over the last few days. West to southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the Great Basin, with a drying trend across much of the region. Overlap of dry/breezy conditions will be possible each afternoon from D4/Wednesday-D6/Friday across portions of the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona/southern Utah. Fuels in these areas remain seasonably moist from recent monsoon activity. While some drying, especially of fine fuels, can be anticipated it is unlikely that fuels will be receptive to spread. As such, no areas were included. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest, with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. Latest intel from partners suggest many ongoing fires have received rainfall over the last 24-48 hours. Hi-res guidance indicates that activity for D1/Sunday will be a mix of wet/dry, with additional wetting rainfall likely. In addition, increasing humidity and cloud cover amid lower mixing heights has helped improve fire conditions. Gusty and erratic outflow from nearby thunderstorms may impact ongoing fires. The exception may be across a small portion of northeastern Oregon, where less rainfall has been recorded and amounts are generally expected to be less than 0.10-0.25" tomorrow. In this region, low probability of new ignitions still remains possible. Overall, this area remains too confined and uncertain for inclusion of any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain. However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the best convective environment will remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/ ...Central and Southern High Plains... An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states. A weak shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the central Plains later today. Weak lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of central CO. The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Winds below 6km are rather weak, which should limit convective organization. However, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in isolated supercell structures capable of hail. Morning visible satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon heating somewhat. This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common. However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Upper Midwest... A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly unstable environment will support periods of showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could produce small hail or locally gusty winds. ..Leitman.. 09/07/2025 Read more