Severe Storms

WW 0607 Status Updates
000-VTZ000-CWZ000-062040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AVP TO 25 NNW BDR TO 25 WNW ORH TO 10 SSW MWN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045 ..WEINMAN..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...LWX...GYX...CAR...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-007-009-013-015-062040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC001-003-062040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE MEC001-005-007-011-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-062040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes have been made. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2043 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA. SOUTHERN MD...AND NORTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 2043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern VA. southern MD...and northern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061727Z - 061930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-thunderstorm potential this afternoon. The stronger storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and isolated severe hail. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is becoming increasingly agitated along a prefrontal trough extending from central/eastern VA into northern NC, and initial signs of convective initiation are evident. Continued diurnal heating/destabilization amid lower 70s dewpoints should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, the warm/moist PBL will still yield moderate surface-based buoyancy, which will favor gradual updraft intensification. Additionally, around 35 kt of effective shear may promote loosely organized cells/clusters, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated/sporadic marginally severe hail. Current thinking is that the severe threat will be too localized/marginal for a watch, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36707962 37807819 38887753 39127731 38967663 38577635 36907696 36157807 35857875 35927934 36217971 36707962 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest... West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain. With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity, forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies. However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between 850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point. However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/06/2025 Read more