Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more