Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance shows good agreement on the upper-level pattern from next Tuesday into late next week. A western trough will remain within the Great Basin and Northwest while a ridge across the Plains will make very slow eastward progress. The overall pattern will favor at least a narrow zone of moisture return northward into parts of the Plains. Where models differ is when stronger mid-level winds will spread into the Plains. The GFS suggests this could happen late this coming week while the ECMWF shows the trough ejecting more towards next weekend. Even with these differences, some severe risk could develop within the High Plains/Plains near surface boundaries or where small scale perturbations provide additional ascent. Give the low predictability of these key features, severe probabilities will continue to be withheld. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough, some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and move eastward. ...Parts of southern/central Plains... With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong, but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However, large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low. ..Wendt.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will progress inland from the West Coast while upper ridging continues over the Rockies tomorrow (Sunday). Upper support from the aforementioned trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across western into northern parts of the Great Basin. Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for lightning strikes atop dry fuels over parts of the northern Rockies. By late afternoon, a dry boundary layer extending up to 700 mb will become established, which may encourage a wet/dry thunderstorm mix. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added where thunderstorms are expected to traverse the driest fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ..Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more