Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...Nevada... Anomalously high precipitable water values, including observed an observed value of nearly 1 inch from the 1200Z Las Vegas sounding, suggests higher precipitation efficiency from expected showers and thunderstorms moving into southern Nevada today. This will limit dry lightning ignition efficiency across southern Nevada. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer remains in place across central and northern Nevada, where initially high-based shower and thunderstorm development is expected through the day, increasing potential for ignition over dry fuels denoted by a general northward shift in Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ...Far Northeastern California into southeastern Oregon... Stronger mid-level winds and accelerated northeast thunderstorm motions owing to an encroaching mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest will limit precipitation and increase ignition likelihood amid drier fuels across northeastern California into southeastern Oregon this afternoon. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to reflect this threat for today. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...Nevada... Anomalously high precipitable water values, including observed an observed value of nearly 1 inch from the 1200Z Las Vegas sounding, suggests higher precipitation efficiency from expected showers and thunderstorms moving into southern Nevada today. This will limit dry lightning ignition efficiency across southern Nevada. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer remains in place across central and northern Nevada, where initially high-based shower and thunderstorm development is expected through the day, increasing potential for ignition over dry fuels denoted by a general northward shift in Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ...Far Northeastern California into southeastern Oregon... Stronger mid-level winds and accelerated northeast thunderstorm motions owing to an encroaching mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest will limit precipitation and increase ignition likelihood amid drier fuels across northeastern California into southeastern Oregon this afternoon. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to reflect this threat for today. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...Nevada... Anomalously high precipitable water values, including observed an observed value of nearly 1 inch from the 1200Z Las Vegas sounding, suggests higher precipitation efficiency from expected showers and thunderstorms moving into southern Nevada today. This will limit dry lightning ignition efficiency across southern Nevada. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer remains in place across central and northern Nevada, where initially high-based shower and thunderstorm development is expected through the day, increasing potential for ignition over dry fuels denoted by a general northward shift in Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ...Far Northeastern California into southeastern Oregon... Stronger mid-level winds and accelerated northeast thunderstorm motions owing to an encroaching mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest will limit precipitation and increase ignition likelihood amid drier fuels across northeastern California into southeastern Oregon this afternoon. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to reflect this threat for today. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...Nevada... Anomalously high precipitable water values, including observed an observed value of nearly 1 inch from the 1200Z Las Vegas sounding, suggests higher precipitation efficiency from expected showers and thunderstorms moving into southern Nevada today. This will limit dry lightning ignition efficiency across southern Nevada. A relatively dry sub-cloud layer remains in place across central and northern Nevada, where initially high-based shower and thunderstorm development is expected through the day, increasing potential for ignition over dry fuels denoted by a general northward shift in Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. ...Far Northeastern California into southeastern Oregon... Stronger mid-level winds and accelerated northeast thunderstorm motions owing to an encroaching mid-level trough into the Pacific Northwest will limit precipitation and increase ignition likelihood amid drier fuels across northeastern California into southeastern Oregon this afternoon. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were added to reflect this threat for today. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress across central CA today, while another trough moves onshore across WA. Decreasing heights over the Northwest will continue to provide southerly transport of monsoon moisture into portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, where numerous thunderstorms are likely. Dry and breezy conditions will also be likely over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. ...Lee of the Cascades... Increasing flow aloft ahead of the Pacific trough will favor dry downslope winds across the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. With daytime temperatures well into the 90s F, deep mixing will promote low boundary layer RH of 15-20%. With downslope winds of 15-25 mph, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely on the lee slopes and through the gaps of the higher terrain. Some localized critical conditions are also possible where the terrain-enhanced winds and locally drier conditions may develop for a few hours this afternoon. ...Great Basin and northern Rockies Dry Thunder... East of the upper low, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected across the Great Basin and western slopes of the Rockies. A monsoon surge of 0.8 to 1.0 inch PWATs will lift northward across central/eastern NV into UT and western CO/WY. Weak ascent from the trough, along with diurnal heating of the terrain will result in scattered to numerous high-based showers and thunderstorms by early afternoon. Additional storms are likely along a cold front across ID and western MT. Given the increasing moisture content and continued southerly flow, some wetting rainfall is expected from training rounds of thunderstorms. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will support potential lightning ignitions, particularly with fast moving cells and on the edges of the most intense downdraft cores. This appears most likely across parts of eastern UT and western CO where less wetting rainfall is expected. Though isolated dry strikes are possible over the entire IsoDryT area. ...Northern OR/Southern CA... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected ahead of the upper low. A few of these storms may be drier with 30+ kt of southerly flow and relatively deeply mixed boundary layers. While a few dry strikes are possible outside of the heavier cores, recent QPE estimates of 0.5 to 1 inches indicate area fuels have likely been tempered to some degree. This suggests the threat for dry lightning is below IsoDryT thresholds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025 Read more

The cotton crop near Lenorah in Martin County was weeks behind for lack of rain. Texas Farm Bureau (Waco), July 2, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 15:21:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:35:32 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021434 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 73 11(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 110W 64 23 17(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA SOCORRO 34 20 8(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 109.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly