Aggregator

Some areas received rain over the weekend, while most locations stayed dry. Hot and dry conditions persisted. Thunderstorms brought high winds with some hail, but the moisture helped pastures, cotton planting and grain sorghum. Warm-season forage growth slowed due to hot, dry days. Some fields were planted in sorghum and forage Sudan. Wheat harvest was expected to begin soon, although many wheat and oat fields were grazed out. Coastal Bermuda grass and hay grazer looked good, but more rain was needed as subsoil moisture levels remained low from extended drought. Weed control was ongoing. Range and pastures were in good condition where rain was received but dry in other parts. Livestock remained in good condition where the early May rains fell, and stock tanks and low spots in creeks were full. However, the rains were followed by 100-degree days and the soil moisture depleted fast. Drier pastures offered little grazing and livestock were being supplemented. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 20, 2025 Warm and dry conditions persisted in West Central Texas, but several counties reported 0.5-4.5 inches of rainfall. Severe storms led to tornadoes that damaged trees and outbuildings. More rainfall was in the forecast. Some counties reported up to 12 inches of rainfall for the month of April. Topsoil was drying down very quickly in some areas. The moisture helped improve forage and crop conditions. Haygrazer fields had emerged and were off to a good start, but more rain will be needed soon. Producers were planting spring forages and fertilizing Bermuda grass pastures. Pasture conditions were improving grazing availability for livestock. Cattle were being worked. The cattle market was active with high demand across all classes. Some wheat was beginning to change color. There was some freeze damage reported in wheat. Many wheat and oat fields were being grazed out or baled for hay. Grain sorghum emerged and needed rain. Cotton planting was expected to begin soon in irrigated fields and dryland fields needed more rain before planting. Recent rains improved conditions in some cotton fields prepared for planting. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 6, 2025

Topsoil dried out in Southwest Texas due to the high temperatures, though subsoil moisture remained adequate from recent rainfall. Hot and dry conditions continued. High temperatures reached over 100 degrees during the week, with no precipitation. Row crops looked good but needed another rain soon. Irrigated crops looked strong, and all cotton was planted. Vegetable gardens were doing well. Livestock performance was expected to dip due to reduced grazing and animals seeking shade. Livestock markets were high to steady. Some producers began cutting perennial grass patches. If conditions remain the same, hay grazer cutting was expected to begin soon. Some producers were trying to balance available grazing and stocking rates by selling calves slightly lighter than usual. Producers were still heavily supplementing feed for both livestock and wildlife. Overall, livestock body condition scores remained marginal. Whitetail deer were beginning to drop fawns. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 20, 2025 Moisture conditions continued to improve as most areas of Southwest Texas received some rainfall – trace amounts up to 3 inches. More rainfall was in the forecast. Rangeland and pasture conditions were greening up. Temperatures were cooler and winds picked up. Some pea-sized hail was reported in some areas. Some trees did not leaf out this spring, raising ongoing concerns about limited deeper soil moisture. Pecan producers were not seeing pecan nut casebearer moths yet. Row crops appeared to be progressing well. Recent rains provided a boost to corn and sorghum fields. Producers were applying herbicides and fertilizers, and pasture weed control and fertilization efforts were showing good results. Heavy supplemental feeding of livestock continued to be necessary in some areas. Livestock markets were steady to higher. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 6, 2025

No watches are valid as of Thu May 22 03:05:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 22 03:05:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in the Ozarks region this evening. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across NE/KS. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature appears to be aiding weak elevated convection immediately downstream across northern KS. Over the last half hour or so, thickening cu field is noted across southwest MO, with other deepening cu over northern AR. Latest surface analysis suggests the primary zone of low-level convergence extends across northern AR into northeast OK. Convection may continue to increase along/north of this boundary, partly in response to the approaching short wave, aided by weak low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits modestly steep lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and weak buoyancy. This may prove adequate for a few robust updrafts capable of generating hail, and perhaps some locally severe wind gusts. Reference MCD #926 for more information. ..Darrow.. 05/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in the Ozarks region this evening. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across NE/KS. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature appears to be aiding weak elevated convection immediately downstream across northern KS. Over the last half hour or so, thickening cu field is noted across southwest MO, with other deepening cu over northern AR. Latest surface analysis suggests the primary zone of low-level convergence extends across northern AR into northeast OK. Convection may continue to increase along/north of this boundary, partly in response to the approaching short wave, aided by weak low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits modestly steep lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and weak buoyancy. This may prove adequate for a few robust updrafts capable of generating hail, and perhaps some locally severe wind gusts. Reference MCD #926 for more information. ..Darrow.. 05/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in the Ozarks region this evening. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is digging southeast across NE/KS. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature appears to be aiding weak elevated convection immediately downstream across northern KS. Over the last half hour or so, thickening cu field is noted across southwest MO, with other deepening cu over northern AR. Latest surface analysis suggests the primary zone of low-level convergence extends across northern AR into northeast OK. Convection may continue to increase along/north of this boundary, partly in response to the approaching short wave, aided by weak low-level warm advection. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits modestly steep lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and weak buoyancy. This may prove adequate for a few robust updrafts capable of generating hail, and perhaps some locally severe wind gusts. Reference MCD #926 for more information. ..Darrow.. 05/22/2025 Read more

MD 0926 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0926 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Ozarks/Mid-South Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 220057Z - 220300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into late evening, yielding an increasing threat for sporadic large hail and locally strong gusts. Initial storms may largely remain marginally severe, yielding uncertainty on coverage/intensity for a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Convective attempts have occurred along a quasi-stationary front over north-central AR and to the north of this front in far southwest MO. This latter zone should be the start of the well-advertised elevated convective regime this evening as 800-700 mb warm theta-e advection intensifies. Initially, mid-level lapse rates are modest per the 00Z LZK sounding and model forecast soundings. This should temper initial updraft strength amid weak to modest elevated buoyancy. However, upstream lapse rates are steeper and in conjunction with a strengthening mid-level jetlet, should foster a more favorable instability/shear environment towards midnight on the western flank of the elevated convective plume. This setup may result in two separate regimes, one with marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts moving into the Mid-South, and a second round of large hail threat persisting into the Ozarks overnight. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37579514 37659426 37129255 36519055 35979031 35549050 35389105 35619229 36229422 36889501 37299542 37579514 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

259
ABPZ20 KNHC 212314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 21 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while
moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

The Roza Irrigation District stopped diverting water temporarily on Tuesday, May 20, for a drought-related shutdown. Roza was notified by the Bureau of Reclamation that water rationing would start on May 20 and continue for 7 to 13 days. Reclamation said this measure would free up roughly 7,000 to 13,000 acre feet to use during the coming irrigation season. Pacific Northwest Ag Network (Pasco, Wash.), May 21, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level flow south of an upper-level trough entering the western U.S. will promote a prolonged fire weather threat to portions of the Southwest Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday. Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes Region and Northeast will promote cooler temperatures and relatively light winds through at least early next week while Gulf moisture lingers across the Deep South mitigating fire weather concerns across the eastern U.S. ...Southwest... Primary impact from the upper-level trough will be supportive dynamics for stronger surface winds across Arizona and New Mexico Friday and over the weekend. The Arizona/New Mexico area remains quite dry, with ongoing severe to extreme drought and very dry fuels. Stronger winds coupled with likely single digit relative humidity during the primary afternoon burn period and poor overnight recoveries will promote wildfire spread. A 70 percent Critical probability has been added for the Mogollon Rim area where fuels remain particularly dry. Conditions improve in terms of lower wind speeds early next week (Day 6/Monday) as upper-level ridging builds over much of the western U.S. Another trough moving into California next week could promote some moisture transport deeper into western New Mexico/western Colorado by Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday, possibly bringing showers and thunderstorms to higher terrain/ranges. However, weak shear environment under the ridge should limit faster storm motions and overall dry lightning threat. ..Williams.. 05/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Saltwater intrusion in the Delaware River was threatening water quality for the roughly 14.2 million people in the basin. During periods of low rainfall, seawater can push further up the river than usual and reach local water intakes. Reservoir storage was being used to compensate for the lack of fresh rainwater and keep saltwater from traveling too far upstream. BucksCo.Today (Doylestown, Pa.), May 21, 2025

Drought ended in western Massachusetts, but it still remained for the Islands and Southeast Regions, which continued to be at level 1, Mild Drought. WWLP-22 News (Springfield, Mass.), May 20, 2025 The Central Region has been downgraded from a Level 1-Mild Drought to Level 0-Normal Conditions. The Northeast and Islands Regions were also lowered to a Level 1 – Mild Drought, like the Connecticut River Valley, Southeast, and Western Regions. The Cape Cod Region remained at a Level 2 – Significant Drought. Water conservation was still encouraged. Worcester Telegram (Mass.), May 9, 2025

MD 0915 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 305...308... FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Concerning...Tornado Watch 305...308... Valid 210114Z - 210315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 305, 308 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado, wind-damage and large-hail threat will continue across parts of the southern Appalachians over the next few hours. A strong tornado will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a mix of supercells and short-line segments ongoing from east-central Tennessee southward into northern Alabama. The airmass ahead of this convection is unstable, with the RAP showing SBCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The instability, along with large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, will maintain a severe threat with the stronger cells. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Morristown, TN has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 m2/s2. This will be favorable for supercells. The more dominant supercells could have a tornado threat, and potential for wind damage and large hail. The wind-damage threat could also be concentrated along and ahead of the more intense short-line segments. The severe threat may become more isolated with eastward extent, as instability gradually becomes weaker this evening. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 37438435 37018465 35638514 34958611 34658639 34518638 34308631 34168608 34038537 34148434 35058373 36488305 37238281 37648315 37708371 37438435 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0914 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0914 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306... Valid 210012Z - 210145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306 continues. SUMMARY...Severe hail and locally damaging gusts remain possible across parts of central Louisiana -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306. While a localized severe risk may spread southward out of the watch, a downstream watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with a couple deep/embedded cores is ongoing across central Louisiana along the tail-end of a cold front draped across the region. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per POE VWP data) oriented mostly parallel to the front is favoring congealing of cold pools, though the strong shear and around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE is yielding robust embedded updrafts. Severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts remain possible with this activity. With time, storms may spread southward out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306. While there may be a continued localized severe risk, current thinking is that the overall risk will likely remain too isolated/limited for a downstream watch -- especially given weak large-scale ascent and gradually increasing nocturnal static stability. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31279385 31599352 31869297 32019232 32029190 31899166 31599147 31229185 30919294 30839340 30969375 31279385 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0305 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 305 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE TUP TO 40 WSW CHA TO RMG TO 45 N CSV TO 40 SW LOZ. ..BROYLES..05/21/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...PAH...LMK...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC043-049-071-079-089-095-103-210240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN TNC035-049-210240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FENTRESS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 305 TORNADO AL GA IL IN KY TN 201935Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Southeast Illinois Southwest Indiana Central Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening hours. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Bowling Green KY to 35 miles south of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...WW 303...WW 304... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0308 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 308 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/21/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 308 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC015-047-055-057-083-085-111-115-117-123-129-187-213-227-291- 295-313-210240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH GILMER GORDON LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS UNION WALKER WHITFIELD KYC013-025-051-095-109-119-121-125-131-133-147-189-193-199-203- 235-210240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY HARLAN JACKSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY OWSLEY PERRY PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WHITLEY Read more