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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Florida. ...Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern AR by 24/12z. Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will likely traverse this zone. It's not entirely clear how each complex will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy. ...South Florida... Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Florida. ...Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern AR by 24/12z. Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will likely traverse this zone. It's not entirely clear how each complex will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy. ...South Florida... Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Florida. ...Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern AR by 24/12z. Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will likely traverse this zone. It's not entirely clear how each complex will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy. ...South Florida... Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Florida. ...Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern AR by 24/12z. Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will likely traverse this zone. It's not entirely clear how each complex will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy. ...South Florida... Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Florida. ...Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern AR by 24/12z. Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will likely traverse this zone. It's not entirely clear how each complex will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy. ...South Florida... Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Florida. ...Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern AR by 24/12z. Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will likely traverse this zone. It's not entirely clear how each complex will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy. ...South Florida... Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Florida. ...Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern AR by 24/12z. Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will likely traverse this zone. It's not entirely clear how each complex will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy. ...South Florida... Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025 Read more

536
ABPZ20 KNHC 230504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 0938 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0938 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Areas affected...central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230303Z - 230430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe wind threat with a small MCS should persist through midnight, with less confidence in longevity overnight. DISCUSSION...The coldest IR cloud tops of the evening were recently sampled with a linear cluster/small MCS that has been progressing southeastward across the Big Country and Concho Valley. This correlated with the strongest measured severe gust thus far of 65 kts at KETN, and likely a result of impinging on richer low-level moisture advecting northwestward from central TX. A 30-35 kt low-level jet as sampled by the GRK VWP could support sporadic severe gusts persisting southeastward during the next 2-3 hours. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance inferred a more abrupt weakening of the cluster, but the RRFS appears to have a better handle on how it is evolving and supports a few more hours of severe threat. With instability weakening overnight, expectation is still for this MCS to diminish into the early morning. ..Grams/Hart.. 05/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32419868 32299800 31719773 31319763 31159775 30799811 30549858 30449941 30670015 31260022 31409944 31829913 32419868 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0312 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 312 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE ABI TO 40 WNW MWL TO 15 WSW FTW. WW 312 WAS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 230300Z BUT HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED UNTIL 230500Z. ..GRAMS..05/23/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 312 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-083-093-095-133-143-193-267-307-319-327-333-363-399- 411-429-451-230300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA STEPHENS TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0312 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 312 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE ABI TO 40 WNW MWL TO 15 WSW FTW. WW 312 WAS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 230300Z BUT HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED UNTIL 230500Z. ..GRAMS..05/23/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 312 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-083-093-095-133-143-193-267-307-319-327-333-363-399- 411-429-451-230300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA STEPHENS TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0312 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 312 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE ABI TO 40 WNW MWL TO 15 WSW FTW. WW 312 WAS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 230300Z BUT HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED UNTIL 230500Z. ..GRAMS..05/23/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 312 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-083-093-095-133-143-193-267-307-319-327-333-363-399- 411-429-451-230300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA STEPHENS TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0312 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 312 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE ABI TO 40 WNW MWL TO 15 WSW FTW. WW 312 WAS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 230300Z BUT HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED UNTIL 230500Z. ..GRAMS..05/23/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 312 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-083-093-095-133-143-193-267-307-319-327-333-363-399- 411-429-451-230300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA STEPHENS TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 312 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 222005Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central Oklahoma Western and North Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to steadily develop through late afternoon, including across western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma near a boundary from prior storms, and also across the Texas South Plains. Storms may eventually merge/cluster across parts of the Low Rolling Plains and western North Texas. Potentially very large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles east of Wichita Falls TX to 55 miles north of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 311... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of northwest into north central Texas. ...01z Update... Loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is propagating southeast across northwest TX. This activity will continue drifting southeast, within modestly strong northwesterly flow that extends across the southern Plains. Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be associated with this convection, and this may contribute to some longevity as updrafts are favorably sheared for some organization. Latest radar data suggests large hail is noted with many of these updrafts, and this appears to be the greatest risk through the evening hours. Some increase in the LLJ is expected across the TX South Plains later this evening, and this may aid southward propagation. ..Darrow.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of northwest into north central Texas. ...01z Update... Loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is propagating southeast across northwest TX. This activity will continue drifting southeast, within modestly strong northwesterly flow that extends across the southern Plains. Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be associated with this convection, and this may contribute to some longevity as updrafts are favorably sheared for some organization. Latest radar data suggests large hail is noted with many of these updrafts, and this appears to be the greatest risk through the evening hours. Some increase in the LLJ is expected across the TX South Plains later this evening, and this may aid southward propagation. ..Darrow.. 05/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of northwest into north central Texas. ...01z Update... Loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is propagating southeast across northwest TX. This activity will continue drifting southeast, within modestly strong northwesterly flow that extends across the southern Plains. Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough may be associated with this convection, and this may contribute to some longevity as updrafts are favorably sheared for some organization. Latest radar data suggests large hail is noted with many of these updrafts, and this appears to be the greatest risk through the evening hours. Some increase in the LLJ is expected across the TX South Plains later this evening, and this may aid southward propagation. ..Darrow.. 05/23/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 22 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle of next week while moving
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Soil conditions in the South Plains declined rapidly due to high winds and hot temperatures, making corn and cotton planting challenging. Locations with adequate moisture at the beginning of the week were dry-planted by the end of the week; the need for rain was high. Cotton, corn and sorghum were being planted, and irrigation was being turned on. Early planted corn and sorghum looked good. Wheat for grain was either being harvested or sprayed for harvest in the next month. Wheat silage was being cut. Forage fields were being cut for hay. Weeds were coming on strong in many places. Producers were using pre-emergent spraying applications to combat weeds. Potatoes had emerged and were growing. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 20, 2025

The recent weather varied across Central Texas with intermittent rain followed by warmer temperatures and occasional severe storms, including hail. Soil moisture levels were generally good, though some areas reported drying conditions with above-normal temperatures setting daily records. Pastures and grasslands were growing well, keeping livestock in mostly good condition, though some producers continued supplemental feeding. Hay cutting began with promising results. Wheat and oat harvests got underway as fields dried, with good yields reported in some areas. Corn progressed nicely and began to tassel and benefit from the heat, while sorghum started heading. Cotton planting finished in some areas and was just beginning in others, with growth somewhat slower due to cooler temperatures and high thrips populations. Stock tanks were full in some counties but concerningly low in others. Producers were monitoring conditions closely as drought concerns persisted in certain areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 20, 2025