Aggregator

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 031 WTPZ41 KNHC 022033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie is feeling the effects of decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the associated convection waning and becoming asymmetric. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates indicate weakening, and recent objective satellite estimates are in the 80-90 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 85 kt. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a 1638Z ASCAT overpass. The initial motion is 305/8 kt. Flossie is moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over California and the adjacent Pacific. A general northwestward motion should continue for the next couple of days. After that, Flossie should lose vertical depth as it weakens, with the remnant low being steered more toward the west-northwest by the mean low-level flow. The new forecast track is almost identical to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast to continue as Flossie moves over cooler water and into a drier air mass. The cyclone is predicted to become post-tropical in about 36 h as it stops producing convection, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low thereafter. The system is forecast to dissipate completely by 96 h, and this could happen earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 406 WTPZ31 KNHC 022032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 109.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 109.8 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 19.5, -109.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 975 WTPZ21 KNHC 022031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Northern Great Basin and Western Nevada... An approaching short wave trough and stronger mid-level flow will support shower and thunderstorm development across northeastern CA into southeastern OR Thursday. Faster northeast thunderstorm trajectories will limit precipitation amounts supporting an isolated dry thunderstorm threat. A corridor of daytime instability and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.7 inches will bring an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the higher terrain of far northern NV, northern UT as well as far southeastern ID. The incoming trough will also promote stronger downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest across northwestern NV. Enhanced downslope winds from the west of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of around 15% supports continuation elevated fire weather highlights. ...Western Slope and Eastern Utah... A broad plume of monsoon moisture over the region along with daytime heating will promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Western Slope as well as eastern UT. Some lightning ignitions are possible within remaining pockets of receptive fuels. ..Williams.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing over the western US will continue as a compact shortwave trough moves across northern CA Thursday. 40-50 kt westerly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West. ...Northwest Great Basin... Continued westerly flow aloft will overspread the northern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Dry downslope winds of 15-25 mph are expected, aided by the increasing winds aloft. Very warm temperatures, and the dry downslope trajectories, will support widespread RH values below 15%. The increase in surface winds amid a warm and dry boundary layer and dry fuels will support elevated wildfire spread potential Thursday. ...Western Slope... Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the eastern Great Basin and western Rockies Thursday. A continued surge of robust monsoon moisture (PWATS above 0.8 inches) will support a mixed mode of wet and occasionally dry storms. Widespread QPF of 0.1-0.25 inches in the preceding days suggest area fuels are likely to become less receptive to lightning ignitions with time. However, the coverage of storms does support at least isolated potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels across western CO/WY into eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 2 20:01:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...20z Update... There are no changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...20z Update... There are no changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/ ...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains... Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening. Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant. ...Western Great Basin... Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is over southern NV. ...AZ... 12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning and the expectation is that this moisture will support the development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all, which should limit the overall severe potential. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI, Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There is some chance development occurs along the front during the afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large hail are possible. ...Eastern NC... Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well. A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest storms. Read more