Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential. ...Central High Plains... Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming, southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for supercells. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Western US troughing will intensify and shift eastward Friday as westerly flow aloft overspreads the Great Basin. Dry downslope winds are expected over much of the West. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible, along with a few thunderstorms Friday. ...Great Basin and Northern Rockies... Westerly flow aloft is forecast to increase as the shortwave trough over the West moves eastward. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures are expected across much of NV into western UT Friday. Widespread westerly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. The stronger dry, southwest flow will advected drier air across the much of NV and southwest UT, resulting in a deep, well mixed boundary layer and low surface relative humidity. Dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15%. Widespread elevated and locally critical conditions are likely. Especially across southern NV into southwest UT, where winds may approach 25 mph sustained with RH below 15%. Along the eastern periphery of the drier air, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again. Recent rainfall has reduced fuel receptiveness across much of the Western Slope and eastern Great Basin. Some lightning may occur with a mix of wet and dry storms from ID, into southern MT, WY, and northern CO. However, the mixed fuels, and another potential round of wetting rainfall suggests the threat for dry strikes over receptive fuels is low. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough moving across northern CA will accompany 40-50 kt westerly flow across the northern Great Basin. This will encourage dry downslope flow across parts of western NV and the northern Great Basin. At the same time, continued monsoon moisture will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Intermountain West with isolated lightning. ...Northern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions are expected today and tonight in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin ahead of the shortwave trough. Sustained 15-20 mph surface winds are expected from the west/southwest through the day. A dry and deep boundary layer will also support RH below 15-20%. Despite some recent rainfall, area fuels remain receptive across much of NV and the northern Great Basin. Widespread elevated and locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper trough moves into the West, monsoon moisture will be shunted eastward compared to the last several days. Still, PWATS around 0.6-0.8 inches across western CO and into the northern Rockies will be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Fuel receptiveness has decreased with multiple rounds of showers and storms this week. Still, drier pockets remain and lightning outside of the heavier precipitation cores will be capable of ignitions. This appears most likely over parts of northern CO to eastern ID, where less rainfall has been observed. Will maintain IsoDryT highlights for occasional lighting strikes within receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the Northwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain at this time. ...ID/MT... A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to diverse to add a risk area at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/03/2025 Read more

MD 1545 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...NORTHWEST IA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1545 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...Southeast SD...northeast NE...northwest IA...and far southwest MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 030452Z - 030645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe hail will be possible with the stronger storms tonight. DISCUSSION...In response to weak low-level warm advection, isolated thunderstorms are developing along the northeastern periphery of a large-scale ridge. Here, 30-40 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow is yielding an elongated/mostly straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective shear). This wind profile, coupled with an influx of steep midlevel lapse rates atop a shallow low-level stable layer, may support a couple elevated/transient supercell structures -- capable of producing isolated severe hail. Given the weak forcing for ascent, storm longevity and overall evolution is uncertain. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 42229747 43049896 43489895 44059853 44239784 44049706 43639595 43099519 42469511 42069558 41969661 42229747 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and northern Plains today. ...Northeast... An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass will support the development of moderate instability along/ahead of the cold front by late morning/early afternoon. Aided by the enhanced mid-level flow, deep-layer shear will likely be strong enough to support updraft organization, including a mix of multicells and perhaps some supercells. Scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear, especially if any supercells can be sustained. The Slight Risk has been expanded northward to include more of New England, as recent guidance trends show potential for organized severe convection along/ahead much of the length of the front. ...Northern Plains... An upper ridge will persist over much of the Plains today. Even so, a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to advance eastward from MT across the northern Plains this afternoon/evening on the northern periphery of the upper ridge. This feature should encourage isolated to scattered intense thunderstorm development along/near a warm front extending across parts of ND by late afternoon/early evening. Moderate to strong instability is expected along/near this boundary, aided by steep lapse rates aloft. Modest low-level southerly flow is forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support sufficient deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) for organized convection, including some supercells initially across western/central ND. These supercells should pose a threat for scattered large hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in diameter given a rather favorable thermodynamic environment forecast. With time this evening, there may be some potential for upscale growth into a small bowing cluster with eastward extent into central/eastern ND. If this mode transition occurs, then the severe/damaging wind threat would likewise increase. Although low-level flow should remain fairly modest, a tornado or two also appears possible, particularly along/near the front where effective SRH should be locally enhanced. ...Upper Midwest... Compared to the northern Plains, there is generally less confidence in overall thunderstorm coverage and development across much of the Upper Midwest through the period. Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat. The Marginal Risk area has been adjusted northward/westward some based on latest guidance trends showing multiple potential zones of isolated strong/severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/03/2025 Read more