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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more