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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges. Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. ...Eastern North Carolina... Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be too limited for low probabilities. ..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe weather is possible on Day 5/Sunday and Day6/Monday across portions of northern Montana and North Dakota as moderate instability builds into the area with moderate mid-level flow southeast of a trough across western Canada. The evolution and timing of this trough remains uncertain and therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. Beyond this timeframe, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS for much of the extended forecast period with widespread thunderstorm activity likely. Despite this storm coverage and instability, organized severe weather seems unlikely given mostly weak deep-layer shear/flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe weather is possible on Day 5/Sunday and Day6/Monday across portions of northern Montana and North Dakota as moderate instability builds into the area with moderate mid-level flow southeast of a trough across western Canada. The evolution and timing of this trough remains uncertain and therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. Beyond this timeframe, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS for much of the extended forecast period with widespread thunderstorm activity likely. Despite this storm coverage and instability, organized severe weather seems unlikely given mostly weak deep-layer shear/flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe weather is possible on Day 5/Sunday and Day6/Monday across portions of northern Montana and North Dakota as moderate instability builds into the area with moderate mid-level flow southeast of a trough across western Canada. The evolution and timing of this trough remains uncertain and therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. Beyond this timeframe, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS for much of the extended forecast period with widespread thunderstorm activity likely. Despite this storm coverage and instability, organized severe weather seems unlikely given mostly weak deep-layer shear/flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe weather is possible on Day 5/Sunday and Day6/Monday across portions of northern Montana and North Dakota as moderate instability builds into the area with moderate mid-level flow southeast of a trough across western Canada. The evolution and timing of this trough remains uncertain and therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. Beyond this timeframe, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS for much of the extended forecast period with widespread thunderstorm activity likely. Despite this storm coverage and instability, organized severe weather seems unlikely given mostly weak deep-layer shear/flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe weather is possible on Day 5/Sunday and Day6/Monday across portions of northern Montana and North Dakota as moderate instability builds into the area with moderate mid-level flow southeast of a trough across western Canada. The evolution and timing of this trough remains uncertain and therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. Beyond this timeframe, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS for much of the extended forecast period with widespread thunderstorm activity likely. Despite this storm coverage and instability, organized severe weather seems unlikely given mostly weak deep-layer shear/flow. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:36:47 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 974 WTPZ41 KNHC 020835 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie remains an impressive hurricane early this morning, although the well-defined eye evident earlier tonight has become less distinct and somewhat cloud filled in recent satellite images. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.5/102 knots from TAFB and T5.0/90 knots from SAB. Meanwhile, the objective intensity estimates ranged from 96 to 107 knots at 06z. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity will be held at 100 knots for this advisory. Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system. A turn more to the west is expected beyond 48 hours as the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous advisory to align with the latest consensus guidance trends, and closely follows a blend of the latest GDMI, FSSE and TVCE consensus aids. The window for additional strengthening appears to be closing quickly, as Flossie begins to move over slightly less conducive waters for intensification with sea surface temperatures now around 27C. Wind shear remains light and mid-level moisture remains high during the next 12 hours, so with the system remaining over adequately warm water, the intensity should change little. Flossie will move over much cooler water between 12 and 24 hours, and into a drier mid-level environment. This should result in rather rapid weakening of the system, with Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 48 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. The intensity forecast has been adjusted to show a bit faster weakening of the system which is in line with the latest intensity consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Large swells generated by Flossie will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.6N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 839 FOPZ11 KNHC 020834 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 72 27(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 12 70(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 110W 64 2 48(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ISLA SOCORRO 34 7 33(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 834 WTPZ31 KNHC 020834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 108.3W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 108.3 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the day. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 3 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through today. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 18.6, -108.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.