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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday. ...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas... Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and severe winds. ...Carolinas... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F, there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not completely out of the question. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

MD 0903 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0903 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201734Z - 201930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the coming hours across central to eastern Arkansas. Storms will intensify as they spread east towards the MS River, and will pose a threat for all hazards. Watch issuance is expected as initiation becomes imminent. DISCUSSION...GOES imagery shows slow vertical development of agitated cumulus along and ahead of a cold front across southern to central AR with at least one deeper convective tower exhibiting occasional lightning. This comes amid steady destabilization of a residual cold pool ahead of the front where temperatures are warming into the upper 70s and low 80s and MLCAPE climbs into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Gradual elimination of lingering inhibition will likely lead to steady growth/intensification of convection through mid-afternoon. A 60-65 knot mid-level jet will promote storm organization, though it remains somewhat unclear exactly when convection will become sufficiently deep to realize the sheared environment and pose a severe threat. However, by late afternoon thunderstorms will likely reach sufficient intensity and organization to produce severe winds, large hail and tornadoes (including the potential for 2-3 inch hail, and strong tornadoes with more discrete cells). Latest guidance suggests this is most probable along the MS River across eastern AR into adjacent portions of TN and northwest MS. Watch issuance is expected as soon as convection begins to show signs of steady deepening/intensification. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33429278 35909202 36259188 36469136 36488932 36328912 35908912 35588913 33678984 33319001 33169021 33029065 33039272 33159279 33429278 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/20/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...RLX...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-013-017-019-025-043-049-051-053-063-065-069-071-079-089- 095-109-115-119-121-125-127-129-131-133-137-147-151-153-159-165- 173-175-181-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-207-231-235-237- 201940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BELL BOURBON BOYD BREATHITT CARTER CLARK CLAY CLINTON ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD GARRARD GREENUP HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE TNC001-013-025-035-049-057-063-067-073-129-133-137-151-163-173- Read more

WW 0304 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0304 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0304 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0304 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0304 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0304 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0303 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0303 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0902 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE.........NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0902 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Kentucky...middle/eastern Tennessee,,,northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201519Z - 201745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An initially isolated severe wind threat will probably gradually become more widespread, perhaps along with increasing potential for tornadoes, as storms spread eastward into early/mid afternoon. DISCUSSION...Little in the way of notable surface pressures rises have recently been evident within elongated, eastward advancing (around 35 kt) conglomerate convective outflow. However, forcing for ascent downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing slowly pivoting into the lower Ohio Valley has been maintaining convective development along its leading edge, with embedded cells occasionally undergoing a period of intensification. The downstream boundary-layer across eastern Tennessee into the vicinity of a stalled frontal zone across Kentucky is seasonably moist, and becoming characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, with inhibition gradually weakening with insolation. As daytime heating continues, a gradual intensification of storms is likely to continue, with further organization probable as this occurs, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow. It appears that the intersection of the convective outflow and the surface frontal zone may become the focus for a developing area of low pressure across south central through southeastern Kentucky. As this occurs, hodographs might become increasingly conducive to a risk for tornadoes, in addition to increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts associated with the strengthening convective cold pool. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 37708562 38428448 38278303 37078313 35698500 34588637 34558787 35158777 36098684 37708562 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

746
ABPZ20 KNHC 201726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 20 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend into early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 20 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend into early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly