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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the upper Ohio Valley, southern Virginia/North Carolina and parts of North Florida. Additional strong to severe storms are possible from parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move through portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley during the morning/early afternoon. A surface low across the lower Great Lakes will move eastward with a weak warm front near the OH/PA border. Another surface low will develop along the NC/VA border along a wedge front. Weak moisture return is possible in parts of the southern Plains ahead of a weak cold front. ...Southern Virginia and adjacent North Carolina... Cooler air is expected to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic. With early day precipitation occurring, this cold air should be reinforced. Convective development will likely be focused within the higher terrain as well as along a wedge front near the NC/VA border. South of the front, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. 45-50 kts off effective shear will promote organized cells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low-level shear will not be very strong, but a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a tornado. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At least muted surface heating is expected in a narrow zone between the surface low and warm front. Cold temperatures aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but 30-35 kts of effective shear could support marginally organized storms. Isolated damaging winds as well as small to marginally severe hail could occur. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists with a stronger storm near the warm front. ...Northeast Oklahoma into Ozarks/Mid-South... Limited moisture and forcing will limit potential for storms along the front during the afternoon. During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet, though still modest, will promote some potential for elevated storm development. A belt of strong mid-level northwest flow is expected to develop later in the day. With steep mid-level lapse rates and 50+ kts off effective shear, the stronger storms would be capable of large hail. ...North Florida... Along the southeastward moving cold front, 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is probable given low/mid 70s F dewpoints. Effective shear will remain strongest behind the boundary, but a cluster or two of storms could potentially produce damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 05/20/2025 Read more