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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are expected over much of Arizona Monday. ...Arizona... An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized. Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail. Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front passage. ...Northeastern states... A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak, averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean winds average around 35 kt. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220511
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorena, located over the central Gulf of California, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S HLC TO 20 SSE SLN. ..SPC..09/22/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC027-029-041-051-053-061-089-105-117-123-127-131-141-143-149- 157-161-163-167-169-183-195-197-201-220440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLIS ELLSWORTH GEARY JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS RUSSELL SALINE SMITH TREGO WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC025-059-067-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-147-151-153-169- 220440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS FILLMORE GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE Read more

WW 657 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 212210Z - 220500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest to northeast Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening from southwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska with primary threats of large hail and damaging wind. This activity should evolve into one or more clusters with the severe threat waning towards late evening as it transitions to predominantly a heavy rainfall hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Beatrice NE to 10 miles east southeast of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

MD 2000 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657... FOR KS...SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2000 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Areas affected...KS...Southwest IA...Northwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657... Valid 220332Z - 220530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat is gradually shifting east and waning. New WW is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Isolated severe wind gusts have been noted within the last hour along strongest portion of the squall line near CNK. This activity is shifting east along the NE/KS border and should progress east of ww657 in the next 1-2hr as LLJ focuses into this portion of the eastern Plains. While convection should remain organized, overall severe threat appears to be decreasing, especially as thunderstorms shift east of the MO river. A new WW is not anticipated downstream. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38920084 39799779 41489533 40269485 38699759 38400062 38920084 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:55:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:38:04 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220254 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has been a swirl of low clouds devoid of convection since the last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based mainly on subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and passive microwave winds from the WindSat suggests the possibility this is a bit generous. While Mario remains in an area of strong easterly vertical shear, it is still over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively moist air mass. Thus, the lack of convection is a little surprising. The intensity forecast will show little change in strength during the next 12 h in anticipation of a convective burst developing near the center during the diurnal maximum. After that time, dry air entrainment and movement over cooler waters should inhibit the development of convection, and the cyclone is forecast to decay into a remnant low by 36 h, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is again mainly an update of the previous forecast. Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 350/6 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north- northwestward to northwestward motion through about 48 h, followed by a more northward motion near the 72 h point. Once again, little change was made to the forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220253 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220253 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 110.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 110.8 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later tonight or on Sunday. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 20.3, -110.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 220253 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 Kiko is only producing a relatively small patch of deep convection to the northeast of its center, the result of continued southwesterly shear and the cyclone moving through what appears to be a stable environment. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but it's possible the maximum winds have decreased since then. Given Kiko's structure and its environment, some weakening is expected during the next day or so. However, the cyclone is moving southwestward, toward slightly warmer waters, and this could allow for some restrengthening in 36-48 hours, which is shown by many of the intensity models. Another round of shear and cooler waters should lead to weakening after 48 hours, and Kiko is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. Kiko is moving a little faster toward the west-southwest, or 240/7 kt. An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next 36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. Only small adjustments to the NHC track forecast were made on this cycle, and it still depicts a wave-like trajectory through day 5, as has been the case for several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.5N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:39:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:31:37 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220238 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 10(10) 24(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) 1(39) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 2(24) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220238 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 132.5W ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 132.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KIKO STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 17.5, -132.5 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220237 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 132.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:37:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:44:31 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 476 FOPZ15 KNHC 220236 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAHIA KINO 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GUAYMAS 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds, over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas. The system was devoid of convection for several hours. However, a new burst of convection has recently formed just northeast of the center. There is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning. The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just west of due north or 355/10 kt. A general northward or perhaps north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory track. Key Messages: 1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven