Aggregator

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221444 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 After being devoid of deep convection since yesterday, a couple of thunderstorms have formed just to the southwest of the cyclone's center. Although this barely qualifies the system to retain tropical cyclone status, advisories are being continued for the time being. However, Mario should degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours or so. The weakening low is expected to turn northward and move over the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday, and dissipate later that day. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.0N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 24.8N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 26.3N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 27.9N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 221444 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.9W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.9W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.8N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.9N 113.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 111.9W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 111.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center will move inland over the central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight. The low is expected to dissipate by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...MARIO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 22.0, -111.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:35:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:52:27 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221432 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The poorly defined center of what is left of Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning to the northwest of Guaymas. The system has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. The low is expected to move farther inland and dissipate tonight or early Monday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.8N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221431 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221431 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 111.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 111.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning. At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of the disturbance was estimated near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 111.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion will continue to bring the disturbance farther inland until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds associated with this system are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Dissipation is expected tonight or early Monday. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Avila

...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.8, -111.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK TO IL THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible through this evening from parts of Oklahoma to Illinois. ...OK to IL through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough with embedded perturbations over the central/northern High Plains will progress eastward to the MS Valley and Great Lakes by tonight. In advance of an embedded speed max over the central High Plains, an associated weak surface cyclone in KS this morning will develop northeastward along a front toward Lower MI by early tonight. A narrow corridor of richer low-level moisture, ranging from upper 60s dewpoints into IL to lower 70s in OK, will be maintained immediately in advance of the weak low and cold front today. A somewhat complex scenario will evolve today with widespread ongoing rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms from OK to WI. Outflow from overnight convection and differential heating today will maintain the effective boundary from northern IL into central MO. An embedded MCV is moving northeastward over southeast KS this morning, and per local VWPs and model forecasts, a 50 kt low-level jet will develop northeastward today with the weak frontal wave and ejecting midlevel trough. Though widespread rainfall will continue to limit lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture and pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg this afternoon in IL to 1500 J/kg in OK. Enhanced low-midlevel flow/shear along the effective surface boundary, potentially augmented by the remnant MCV moving from KS to MO, may support some embedded rotating storms and/or small bowing segments. The threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will begin the first half of the day from southeast KS into OK, and continue into late afternoon/evening into IL. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK TO IL THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible through this evening from parts of Oklahoma to Illinois. ...OK to IL through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough with embedded perturbations over the central/northern High Plains will progress eastward to the MS Valley and Great Lakes by tonight. In advance of an embedded speed max over the central High Plains, an associated weak surface cyclone in KS this morning will develop northeastward along a front toward Lower MI by early tonight. A narrow corridor of richer low-level moisture, ranging from upper 60s dewpoints into IL to lower 70s in OK, will be maintained immediately in advance of the weak low and cold front today. A somewhat complex scenario will evolve today with widespread ongoing rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms from OK to WI. Outflow from overnight convection and differential heating today will maintain the effective boundary from northern IL into central MO. An embedded MCV is moving northeastward over southeast KS this morning, and per local VWPs and model forecasts, a 50 kt low-level jet will develop northeastward today with the weak frontal wave and ejecting midlevel trough. Though widespread rainfall will continue to limit lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture and pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg this afternoon in IL to 1500 J/kg in OK. Enhanced low-midlevel flow/shear along the effective surface boundary, potentially augmented by the remnant MCV moving from KS to MO, may support some embedded rotating storms and/or small bowing segments. The threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will begin the first half of the day from southeast KS into OK, and continue into late afternoon/evening into IL. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK TO IL THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible through this evening from parts of Oklahoma to Illinois. ...OK to IL through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough with embedded perturbations over the central/northern High Plains will progress eastward to the MS Valley and Great Lakes by tonight. In advance of an embedded speed max over the central High Plains, an associated weak surface cyclone in KS this morning will develop northeastward along a front toward Lower MI by early tonight. A narrow corridor of richer low-level moisture, ranging from upper 60s dewpoints into IL to lower 70s in OK, will be maintained immediately in advance of the weak low and cold front today. A somewhat complex scenario will evolve today with widespread ongoing rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms from OK to WI. Outflow from overnight convection and differential heating today will maintain the effective boundary from northern IL into central MO. An embedded MCV is moving northeastward over southeast KS this morning, and per local VWPs and model forecasts, a 50 kt low-level jet will develop northeastward today with the weak frontal wave and ejecting midlevel trough. Though widespread rainfall will continue to limit lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture and pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg this afternoon in IL to 1500 J/kg in OK. Enhanced low-midlevel flow/shear along the effective surface boundary, potentially augmented by the remnant MCV moving from KS to MO, may support some embedded rotating storms and/or small bowing segments. The threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will begin the first half of the day from southeast KS into OK, and continue into late afternoon/evening into IL. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/22/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221102
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lorena, located over the central Gulf of California,
on Tropical Depression Mario, located a few hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 509 WTPZ43 KNHC 220858 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 A small but growing burst of deep convection has resumed near the center of Kiko, but the cyclone is considerably weaker than earlier today. ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 30-35 kt, and 35 kt will be the initial intensity. Within about 24 hours, Kiko has a chance to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters in a lighter shear region. Model agreement is in fairly good agreement on tenacious Kiko intensifying once again. However, Kiko should resume weakening again in about 3 days due to a significant increase in shear and cooler waters, and hopefully the next 48 hours are the last hurrah of Kiko. Kiko is moving southwestward tonight at about 7 kt. The storm should continue to lose latitude for about the next 24 hours due to the orientation of a ridge to the northwest. After that time, the western portion of an incoming mid-latitude trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. No significant changes were made to the sinuous forecast track and, if Kiko survives as long as predicted below, it would end up one of the 10 longest-lasting tropical cyclones in eastern Pacific history. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.0N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:57:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:39:01 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220857 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 13(14) 13(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) 1(23) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220857 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 132.9W ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 132.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening could begin late Sunday, but is forecast to be short-lived with weakening anticipated by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -132.9 with movement SW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.