Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday across much of Iowa, Wisconsin, and southern Minnesota, with isolated storms from parts of the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper jet will dive southeastward across the northern Plains and into the upper MS Valley on Tuesday, with significant cooling aloft and increasing shear. The strongest lift will focus over MN, IA and WI as a cold front collides with returning low-level moisture with at least mid 60s F dewpoints. The cold front will progress eastward toward northern IL by Wed morning, while western parts of the front stall from KS into the TX Panhandle. To the west, an upper low will continue southward across western AZ and into the northern Baja, maintaining a favorable environment for scattered storms over southern AZ and NM. ...Upper MS Valley to the central Plains... Most of the area will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the day as the moist plume becomes established and temperatures aloft cool. By around 00Z, storms are expected to form along the front from southern MN into IA and perhaps eastern NE, and will expand in coverage through the evening into WI. Strong deep-layer shear perpendicular to the front will favor supercells, with steep lapse rates aloft and around 200 m2/s2 ESRH favoring very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south into KS, strong heating of a 65-70 F dewpoint air mass will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with isolated severe storms expected across central and eastern KS. Hail will be possible, with localized wind damage. Parts of this area may require a categorical upgrade in later outlooks once placement of potential storm clusters is more precise. ...Southern AZ and southwest NM... Scattered to numerous storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning over southern AZ and NM in association with the upper low. Pockets of destabilization may occur once again during the day, with isolated strong to severe storms possible capable of hail or localized wind damage. ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to gradually move southeastward from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest Day 2/Monday. ...Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Day 2/Monday across portions of the Sacramento Valley (especially western portions of the valley) and adjacent North Coast Ranges, as dry/gusty low-level northerly flow -- beneath the aforementioned area of enhanced mid-level flow -- overlaps near critical minimum RH values and at least marginally receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may also persist into the overnight due to poor RH recoveries and lingering gusty/breezy surface winds -- especially in terrain favored areas of the North Coast Ranges. ...Southern California... While a combination of increasing offshore surface flow and poor overnight RH recoveries may promote at least locally elevated fire weather conditions late overnight Day 2/Monday, the uncertainty regarding timing/coverage of any fire weather conditions precludes a fire weather area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to gradually move southeastward from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest Day 2/Monday. ...Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Day 2/Monday across portions of the Sacramento Valley (especially western portions of the valley) and adjacent North Coast Ranges, as dry/gusty low-level northerly flow -- beneath the aforementioned area of enhanced mid-level flow -- overlaps near critical minimum RH values and at least marginally receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may also persist into the overnight due to poor RH recoveries and lingering gusty/breezy surface winds -- especially in terrain favored areas of the North Coast Ranges. ...Southern California... While a combination of increasing offshore surface flow and poor overnight RH recoveries may promote at least locally elevated fire weather conditions late overnight Day 2/Monday, the uncertainty regarding timing/coverage of any fire weather conditions precludes a fire weather area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to gradually move southeastward from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest Day 2/Monday. ...Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Day 2/Monday across portions of the Sacramento Valley (especially western portions of the valley) and adjacent North Coast Ranges, as dry/gusty low-level northerly flow -- beneath the aforementioned area of enhanced mid-level flow -- overlaps near critical minimum RH values and at least marginally receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may also persist into the overnight due to poor RH recoveries and lingering gusty/breezy surface winds -- especially in terrain favored areas of the North Coast Ranges. ...Southern California... While a combination of increasing offshore surface flow and poor overnight RH recoveries may promote at least locally elevated fire weather conditions late overnight Day 2/Monday, the uncertainty regarding timing/coverage of any fire weather conditions precludes a fire weather area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to gradually move southeastward from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest Day 2/Monday. ...Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Day 2/Monday across portions of the Sacramento Valley (especially western portions of the valley) and adjacent North Coast Ranges, as dry/gusty low-level northerly flow -- beneath the aforementioned area of enhanced mid-level flow -- overlaps near critical minimum RH values and at least marginally receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may also persist into the overnight due to poor RH recoveries and lingering gusty/breezy surface winds -- especially in terrain favored areas of the North Coast Ranges. ...Southern California... While a combination of increasing offshore surface flow and poor overnight RH recoveries may promote at least locally elevated fire weather conditions late overnight Day 2/Monday, the uncertainty regarding timing/coverage of any fire weather conditions precludes a fire weather area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight. Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late this afternoon and into the overnight. ...Nevada... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction of a fire weather area. ...Northern California... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight. Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late this afternoon and into the overnight. ...Nevada... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction of a fire weather area. ...Northern California... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight. Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late this afternoon and into the overnight. ...Nevada... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction of a fire weather area. ...Northern California... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight. Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late this afternoon and into the overnight. ...Nevada... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction of a fire weather area. ...Northern California... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 05:45:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:44:31 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220541 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOON... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 111.1W ABOUT 15 MI...28 KM W OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next couple of hours, followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are likely occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOON... As of 12:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 27.9, -111.1 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are expected over much of Arizona Monday. ...Arizona... An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized. Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail. Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front passage. ...Northeastern states... A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak, averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean winds average around 35 kt. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are expected over much of Arizona Monday. ...Arizona... An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized. Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail. Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front passage. ...Northeastern states... A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak, averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean winds average around 35 kt. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are expected over much of Arizona Monday. ...Arizona... An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized. Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail. Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front passage. ...Northeastern states... A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak, averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean winds average around 35 kt. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more