Aggregator

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220856 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 132.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 132.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 132.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220856 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Lorena Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Very little convection remains with Lorena, with only a small burst near the center. Strong southwesterly shear continues to weaken Lorena, and ASCAT data indicate the maximum winds are down to 30 kt. All watches and warnings have been discontinued on this advisory. Lorena is forecast to move northward across northwestern Mexico later this morning and rapidly dissipate within 24 hours over the high terrain. There are no significant changes to the track or intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora today. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 28.3N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:55:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:52:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 220855 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAHIA KINO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220855 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lorena Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 111.5W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for western mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lorena was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 111.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours, followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico today before subsiding on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.3, -111.5 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 220854 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220851 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Mario continues to be a fully exposed swirl of low clouds devoid of convection, and is close to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt based on ASCAT data. With no models showing any significant re-development of deep convection, slow weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should decay into a remnant low later today. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, adjusted for lower initial winds. Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 335/8 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north- northwestward at a slower pace through 48 hours. The new forecast track is very close to the previous one and the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern through the D8 period, indicating at least isolated severe storm potential each day. On Wednesday/D4, a strong shortwave trough will move east from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with a cold front becoming east-west oriented as it approaches the OH Valley. This front will extend westward into MO, KS, and OK, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. Lift with the upper trough will continue to move away from the frontal zone, but at least isolated severe storms will be possible due to heating and low-level convergence. Predictability is low in part due to potential for ongoing early-day storms. For the D5-D6 time frame, the upper low over the Southwest is expected to move across the Plains, and will aid lift and increase shear. Moisture will be in place, with a conditional threat of a few severe storms over the central Plains, but timing of this small feature is uncertain. Beyond D6, the pattern becomes quite amplified, with a large scale trough developing over the West, and an upper ridge over the East. This will result in strong southwest flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains, while southerly surface winds maintain low-level moisture across the Plains. Lift from warm advection could potentially support a few severe storms over the northern Plains Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern through the D8 period, indicating at least isolated severe storm potential each day. On Wednesday/D4, a strong shortwave trough will move east from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with a cold front becoming east-west oriented as it approaches the OH Valley. This front will extend westward into MO, KS, and OK, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. Lift with the upper trough will continue to move away from the frontal zone, but at least isolated severe storms will be possible due to heating and low-level convergence. Predictability is low in part due to potential for ongoing early-day storms. For the D5-D6 time frame, the upper low over the Southwest is expected to move across the Plains, and will aid lift and increase shear. Moisture will be in place, with a conditional threat of a few severe storms over the central Plains, but timing of this small feature is uncertain. Beyond D6, the pattern becomes quite amplified, with a large scale trough developing over the West, and an upper ridge over the East. This will result in strong southwest flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains, while southerly surface winds maintain low-level moisture across the Plains. Lift from warm advection could potentially support a few severe storms over the northern Plains Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern through the D8 period, indicating at least isolated severe storm potential each day. On Wednesday/D4, a strong shortwave trough will move east from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with a cold front becoming east-west oriented as it approaches the OH Valley. This front will extend westward into MO, KS, and OK, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. Lift with the upper trough will continue to move away from the frontal zone, but at least isolated severe storms will be possible due to heating and low-level convergence. Predictability is low in part due to potential for ongoing early-day storms. For the D5-D6 time frame, the upper low over the Southwest is expected to move across the Plains, and will aid lift and increase shear. Moisture will be in place, with a conditional threat of a few severe storms over the central Plains, but timing of this small feature is uncertain. Beyond D6, the pattern becomes quite amplified, with a large scale trough developing over the West, and an upper ridge over the East. This will result in strong southwest flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains, while southerly surface winds maintain low-level moisture across the Plains. Lift from warm advection could potentially support a few severe storms over the northern Plains Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement with the large-scale pattern through the D8 period, indicating at least isolated severe storm potential each day. On Wednesday/D4, a strong shortwave trough will move east from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, with a cold front becoming east-west oriented as it approaches the OH Valley. This front will extend westward into MO, KS, and OK, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. Lift with the upper trough will continue to move away from the frontal zone, but at least isolated severe storms will be possible due to heating and low-level convergence. Predictability is low in part due to potential for ongoing early-day storms. For the D5-D6 time frame, the upper low over the Southwest is expected to move across the Plains, and will aid lift and increase shear. Moisture will be in place, with a conditional threat of a few severe storms over the central Plains, but timing of this small feature is uncertain. Beyond D6, the pattern becomes quite amplified, with a large scale trough developing over the West, and an upper ridge over the East. This will result in strong southwest flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains, while southerly surface winds maintain low-level moisture across the Plains. Lift from warm advection could potentially support a few severe storms over the northern Plains Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 night. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:50:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:45:36 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220850 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 220849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 111.3W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 111.3W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220849 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 111.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 111.3 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or on Monday. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 21.0, -111.3 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday across much of Iowa, Wisconsin, and southern Minnesota, with isolated storms from parts of the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper jet will dive southeastward across the northern Plains and into the upper MS Valley on Tuesday, with significant cooling aloft and increasing shear. The strongest lift will focus over MN, IA and WI as a cold front collides with returning low-level moisture with at least mid 60s F dewpoints. The cold front will progress eastward toward northern IL by Wed morning, while western parts of the front stall from KS into the TX Panhandle. To the west, an upper low will continue southward across western AZ and into the northern Baja, maintaining a favorable environment for scattered storms over southern AZ and NM. ...Upper MS Valley to the central Plains... Most of the area will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the day as the moist plume becomes established and temperatures aloft cool. By around 00Z, storms are expected to form along the front from southern MN into IA and perhaps eastern NE, and will expand in coverage through the evening into WI. Strong deep-layer shear perpendicular to the front will favor supercells, with steep lapse rates aloft and around 200 m2/s2 ESRH favoring very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south into KS, strong heating of a 65-70 F dewpoint air mass will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with isolated severe storms expected across central and eastern KS. Hail will be possible, with localized wind damage. Parts of this area may require a categorical upgrade in later outlooks once placement of potential storm clusters is more precise. ...Southern AZ and southwest NM... Scattered to numerous storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning over southern AZ and NM in association with the upper low. Pockets of destabilization may occur once again during the day, with isolated strong to severe storms possible capable of hail or localized wind damage. ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday across much of Iowa, Wisconsin, and southern Minnesota, with isolated storms from parts of the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper jet will dive southeastward across the northern Plains and into the upper MS Valley on Tuesday, with significant cooling aloft and increasing shear. The strongest lift will focus over MN, IA and WI as a cold front collides with returning low-level moisture with at least mid 60s F dewpoints. The cold front will progress eastward toward northern IL by Wed morning, while western parts of the front stall from KS into the TX Panhandle. To the west, an upper low will continue southward across western AZ and into the northern Baja, maintaining a favorable environment for scattered storms over southern AZ and NM. ...Upper MS Valley to the central Plains... Most of the area will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the day as the moist plume becomes established and temperatures aloft cool. By around 00Z, storms are expected to form along the front from southern MN into IA and perhaps eastern NE, and will expand in coverage through the evening into WI. Strong deep-layer shear perpendicular to the front will favor supercells, with steep lapse rates aloft and around 200 m2/s2 ESRH favoring very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south into KS, strong heating of a 65-70 F dewpoint air mass will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with isolated severe storms expected across central and eastern KS. Hail will be possible, with localized wind damage. Parts of this area may require a categorical upgrade in later outlooks once placement of potential storm clusters is more precise. ...Southern AZ and southwest NM... Scattered to numerous storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning over southern AZ and NM in association with the upper low. Pockets of destabilization may occur once again during the day, with isolated strong to severe storms possible capable of hail or localized wind damage. ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday across much of Iowa, Wisconsin, and southern Minnesota, with isolated storms from parts of the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper jet will dive southeastward across the northern Plains and into the upper MS Valley on Tuesday, with significant cooling aloft and increasing shear. The strongest lift will focus over MN, IA and WI as a cold front collides with returning low-level moisture with at least mid 60s F dewpoints. The cold front will progress eastward toward northern IL by Wed morning, while western parts of the front stall from KS into the TX Panhandle. To the west, an upper low will continue southward across western AZ and into the northern Baja, maintaining a favorable environment for scattered storms over southern AZ and NM. ...Upper MS Valley to the central Plains... Most of the area will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the day as the moist plume becomes established and temperatures aloft cool. By around 00Z, storms are expected to form along the front from southern MN into IA and perhaps eastern NE, and will expand in coverage through the evening into WI. Strong deep-layer shear perpendicular to the front will favor supercells, with steep lapse rates aloft and around 200 m2/s2 ESRH favoring very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther south into KS, strong heating of a 65-70 F dewpoint air mass will lead to over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, with isolated severe storms expected across central and eastern KS. Hail will be possible, with localized wind damage. Parts of this area may require a categorical upgrade in later outlooks once placement of potential storm clusters is more precise. ...Southern AZ and southwest NM... Scattered to numerous storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning over southern AZ and NM in association with the upper low. Pockets of destabilization may occur once again during the day, with isolated strong to severe storms possible capable of hail or localized wind damage. ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more