Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...Portions of the Southwest and Central/Southern High Plains... 16Z surface observations indicate that spotty elevated conditions have already developed across portions of northwest AZ and also across southern CO/northern NM. Elevated conditions will become more widespread this afternoon, with locally critical conditions possible. The previous Elevated delineations have been maintained in this update -- see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 09/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level trough located over much the Intermountain West will shift eastward into the central/northern Plains today while ridging develops in its wake across the northern Great Basin. Within the base of the trough, a mid-level short-wave trough, accompanied by enhanced mid-level flow, will quickly move across portions of the Southwest into the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southwest and Central/Southern High Plains... As the aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow overspreads the area in combination with diurnal heating, vertical mixing will allow winds near the surface to reach sustained speeds of 15-20 mph during the afternoon. A dry, post frontal airmass resides over much of the region, and thus RH values will fall into the teens amidst fuels that remain receptive to large-fire spread. Two areas have been highlighted for delineating elevated fire-weather potential, the first being a continuation of the previous forecast over portions of southern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico, with a minor expansion made to account for greater areal coverage of wind/RH threshold exceedance. A second area was added farther west across portions of northwest New Mexico into east-central Arizona, where better agreement exists in the wind/RH combo among the latest high-resolution deterministic- and ensemble-based guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from Kansas to Iowa, and across parts of central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...MN/WI... Morning surface analysis shows a weak low over northwest MN, with a trailing cold front extending southward across the eastern Dakotas. This front will move eastward today into central MN by mid-afternoon, where a combination of daytime heating and forcing associated with an upper trough tracking across the northern Plains will lead to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms. 12z model solutions are inconsistent on coverage of storms in this area, but forecast soundings suggest a conditional risk of rotating storms and the potential for hail and damaging wind in the strongest cells that form. An isolated tornado or two is also possible, given the presence of remnant outflow boundaries and ample low-level moisture. Storms will move into central WI and weaken this evening. ...Central Plains... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southward into central NE/KS. Strong heating is expected this afternoon ahead of the front from central/eastern KS into southeast NE, with MLCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected during the late afternoon over central KS. Storms will build northeastward across the SLGT risk area during the evening, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Shear profiles will promote initial supercell structures with a risk of very large hail. Persistent clouds limit confidence in severe threat extending into central/eastern IA. ..Hart/Bentley.. 09/21/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from Kansas to Iowa, and across parts of central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...MN/WI... Morning surface analysis shows a weak low over northwest MN, with a trailing cold front extending southward across the eastern Dakotas. This front will move eastward today into central MN by mid-afternoon, where a combination of daytime heating and forcing associated with an upper trough tracking across the northern Plains will lead to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms. 12z model solutions are inconsistent on coverage of storms in this area, but forecast soundings suggest a conditional risk of rotating storms and the potential for hail and damaging wind in the strongest cells that form. An isolated tornado or two is also possible, given the presence of remnant outflow boundaries and ample low-level moisture. Storms will move into central WI and weaken this evening. ...Central Plains... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southward into central NE/KS. Strong heating is expected this afternoon ahead of the front from central/eastern KS into southeast NE, with MLCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected during the late afternoon over central KS. Storms will build northeastward across the SLGT risk area during the evening, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Shear profiles will promote initial supercell structures with a risk of very large hail. Persistent clouds limit confidence in severe threat extending into central/eastern IA. ..Hart/Bentley.. 09/21/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from Kansas to Iowa, and across parts of central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...MN/WI... Morning surface analysis shows a weak low over northwest MN, with a trailing cold front extending southward across the eastern Dakotas. This front will move eastward today into central MN by mid-afternoon, where a combination of daytime heating and forcing associated with an upper trough tracking across the northern Plains will lead to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms. 12z model solutions are inconsistent on coverage of storms in this area, but forecast soundings suggest a conditional risk of rotating storms and the potential for hail and damaging wind in the strongest cells that form. An isolated tornado or two is also possible, given the presence of remnant outflow boundaries and ample low-level moisture. Storms will move into central WI and weaken this evening. ...Central Plains... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southward into central NE/KS. Strong heating is expected this afternoon ahead of the front from central/eastern KS into southeast NE, with MLCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected during the late afternoon over central KS. Storms will build northeastward across the SLGT risk area during the evening, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Shear profiles will promote initial supercell structures with a risk of very large hail. Persistent clouds limit confidence in severe threat extending into central/eastern IA. ..Hart/Bentley.. 09/21/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from Kansas to Iowa, and across parts of central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...MN/WI... Morning surface analysis shows a weak low over northwest MN, with a trailing cold front extending southward across the eastern Dakotas. This front will move eastward today into central MN by mid-afternoon, where a combination of daytime heating and forcing associated with an upper trough tracking across the northern Plains will lead to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms. 12z model solutions are inconsistent on coverage of storms in this area, but forecast soundings suggest a conditional risk of rotating storms and the potential for hail and damaging wind in the strongest cells that form. An isolated tornado or two is also possible, given the presence of remnant outflow boundaries and ample low-level moisture. Storms will move into central WI and weaken this evening. ...Central Plains... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southward into central NE/KS. Strong heating is expected this afternoon ahead of the front from central/eastern KS into southeast NE, with MLCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected during the late afternoon over central KS. Storms will build northeastward across the SLGT risk area during the evening, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Shear profiles will promote initial supercell structures with a risk of very large hail. Persistent clouds limit confidence in severe threat extending into central/eastern IA. ..Hart/Bentley.. 09/21/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon/evening from Kansas to Iowa, and across parts of central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. ...MN/WI... Morning surface analysis shows a weak low over northwest MN, with a trailing cold front extending southward across the eastern Dakotas. This front will move eastward today into central MN by mid-afternoon, where a combination of daytime heating and forcing associated with an upper trough tracking across the northern Plains will lead to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms. 12z model solutions are inconsistent on coverage of storms in this area, but forecast soundings suggest a conditional risk of rotating storms and the potential for hail and damaging wind in the strongest cells that form. An isolated tornado or two is also possible, given the presence of remnant outflow boundaries and ample low-level moisture. Storms will move into central WI and weaken this evening. ...Central Plains... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southward into central NE/KS. Strong heating is expected this afternoon ahead of the front from central/eastern KS into southeast NE, with MLCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective initiation is expected during the late afternoon over central KS. Storms will build northeastward across the SLGT risk area during the evening, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Shear profiles will promote initial supercell structures with a risk of very large hail. Persistent clouds limit confidence in severe threat extending into central/eastern IA. ..Hart/Bentley.. 09/21/2019 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:03:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:44:43 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 211459 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 44 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LORETO 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P PENASCO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X 37(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) HERMOSILLO 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 53(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BAHIA KINO 50 X 16(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BAHIA KINO 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 12 60(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) GUAYMAS 50 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GUAYMAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211459 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide a better assessment of Lorena's winds. Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211459 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 110.6W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warnings for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula and replaced it with a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. The government of Mexico also adjusted the watches and warnings for mainland Mexico and a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion toward the north is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 25.6, -110.6 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 211457 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO ALSO ADJUSTED THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MAINLAND MEXICO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 110.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 14:55:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:38:13 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 14:55:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:31:44 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211453 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some southwesterly shear. The center is located beneath the cold cloud tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass. Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little generous. Little overall change in strength is foreast during the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and in generally low shear conditions. After that time, increasing southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are likely to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is very close to the previous advisory. It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today, which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days, but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko is likely to turn back northwestward early next week. The track guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 211452 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) 8(43) 1(44) X(44) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211452 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO TURNS WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS ENDURING TREK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 131.1W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 131.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is expected to begin later today, and this general motion should continue through Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...KIKO TURNS WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS ENDURING TREK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.4, -131.1 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 211452 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.5W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.5 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Socorro Island has recently reported a wind gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown