Aggregator

Governor Ned Lamont approved a recommendation by the State of Connecticut’s Interagency Drought Working Group to declare all eight Connecticut counties as experiencing Stage 2 Drought conditions due to below normal precipitation across the state. Residents should be mindful of their water consumption and were asked to voluntarily reduce outdoor irrigation, postpone planting new lawns or vegetation, and fix any leaks. Greenwich Sentinel (Ct.), July 14, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 14 18:02:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141756Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently developed along both sea breezes on the west and east coasts of the FL Peninsula. MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg will be common across this area with continued robust diurnal heating. Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures associated with a weak upper low over northern Cuba and the Bahamas are also contributing to this substantial buoyancy. Even though low-level winds will remain weak, some modest enhancement to the mid and upper-level flow field was noted in 12Z soundings from MFL/KEY due to the proximity of the upper low. Some anvil-level venting should occur with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will develop over much of the FL Peninsula in the next few hours. This venting, along with the cool mid-level temperatures and moderate to strong instability, should aid in the production of isolated marginally severe hail with the more robust updrafts. Occasional strong to damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen with daytime heating and as DCAPE increases to around 1000 J/kg. Still, current expectations are for the overall severe threat to remain isolated/marginal owing to the weak deep-layer shear. Accordingly, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27798290 28548272 29148276 29398208 29138141 28378084 27628052 26968019 26128041 25438091 25398121 25818172 26538224 27798290 Read more

MD 1480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141756Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently developed along both sea breezes on the west and east coasts of the FL Peninsula. MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg will be common across this area with continued robust diurnal heating. Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures associated with a weak upper low over northern Cuba and the Bahamas are also contributing to this substantial buoyancy. Even though low-level winds will remain weak, some modest enhancement to the mid and upper-level flow field was noted in 12Z soundings from MFL/KEY due to the proximity of the upper low. Some anvil-level venting should occur with scattered to numerous thunderstorms that will develop over much of the FL Peninsula in the next few hours. This venting, along with the cool mid-level temperatures and moderate to strong instability, should aid in the production of isolated marginally severe hail with the more robust updrafts. Occasional strong to damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen with daytime heating and as DCAPE increases to around 1000 J/kg. Still, current expectations are for the overall severe threat to remain isolated/marginal owing to the weak deep-layer shear. Accordingly, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27798290 28548272 29148276 29398208 29138141 28378084 27628052 26968019 26128041 25438091 25398121 25818172 26538224 27798290 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico continue to show increased signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico by late Friday or Saturday. The
disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at
about 10 mph while remaining offshore of the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms, including local risk for strong wind gusts and hail, will be possible across parts of the northern High Plains on Friday. Local severe risk may also occur across portions of the Upper Midwest during the day. ...Synopsis... A generally stagnant pattern aloft will persist Friday, with pronounced western and central U.S. ridging flanked by northeastern Pacific and eastern North America troughing. Weak short-wave features progressing through anticyclonic flow aloft will continue to support weak surface frontal progressions across the northern Rockies and northern Plains through the period. ...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains area... Another day of heating/modest destabilization is expected over the northern Intermountain region, ahead of another in a series of short-wave troughs progressing eastward within the belt of stronger, anticyclonic flow around the northern periphery of stout/persistent upper ridging. As in prior days, this will result in renewed, isolated convective development across the region. Given ample flow aloft to support locally organized, eastward-progressing storms, a few stronger convective elements will again become capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and marginally severe hail locally. During the evening, development of a southeasterly low-level jet over the northern High Plains may aid in continuation of ongoing storms, potentially spreading into the western Dakotas through evening, along with possible/local severe risk. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest vicinity... A rather pronounced mid-level trough cresting the ridge and shifting southeastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley region at the start of the period may be supporting ongoing/warm-advection-aided convection Friday morning. Minimal/local risk for gusty winds may then continue through the morning, spreading southeastward across southeastern Minnesota/northeastern Iowa and roughly the southern half of Wisconsin and adjacent northern Illinois. As the associated cold front shifts southeastward through the day, some southwestward development of convection may occur, perhaps into portions of west-central Illinois and northeastern Missouri through the afternoon and evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds and hail would be possible, before diminishing during the evening hours. ..Goss.. 07/14/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHICS (GEN TSTM LINE/SEVERE WIND PROBS) ...SUMMARY... The greatest conditional severe-weather concern is across parts of the Dakotas and western Minnesota, where large hail and damaging gusts are possible from late afternoon through tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over southern SK/MB is cresting the midlevel ridge and will begin to move southeastward toward MN this evening into tonight. Some elevated convection is ongoing as of late morning over northeast ND, in a zone of weak warm advection near a northwest-southeast oriented warm front. The potential for diurnal, surface-based convection is in question along the front, given that surface temperatures will need to warm to 90F or above to remove convective inhibition across east/southeast ND, and clouds are upstream from this area now. If storms manage to form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. However, the more probable scenario will be for slightly elevated storms/clusters to form along the immediate cool side of the front tonight, and spread southeastward toward western MN, with an attendant threat for large hail/damaging winds. ...Southern MT vicinity this afternoon through tonight... Daytime heating and local terrain circulations are expected to initiate at least widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southern MT, in conjunction with subtle speed maxima within the monsoonal moisture plume around the northern periphery of the Four Corners high aloft. Westerly midlevel flow with relatively long/straight hodographs, deep mixing/inverted-v profiles, and modest buoyancy will support the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts and marginally severe hail with small clusters and high-based supercells from southern MT this afternoon into northeastern WY this evening. ...TX area this afternoon/evening... A cluster of storms is ongoing as of late morning across northeast/east central TX, in association with a diffuse midlevel trough and pocket of slightly cooler midlevel temperatures. Given the organized nature of the cold pool with these storms and weak northeasterly midlevel steering flow, the storms will likely persist through the afternoon while spreading southwestward. The 12z FWD sounding depicted a hybrid microburst environment, and strong surface heating in advance of the storms will result in steepening low-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg), and DCAPE in the range of 1000-1500 J/kg. A few damaging/severe outflow gusts will be the main threat this afternoon through late evening. ...Southeast/FL this afternoon/evening... A weak midlevel trough persists from GA to the Carolinas, and a separate closed low is moving westward over the north coast of Cuba. Somewhat enhanced midlevel west-southwesterly flow will support the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and isolated wind damage from southeast GA to the Carolina coasts this afternoon. Sea breeze convection is likely across the FL peninsula, with easterly flow aloft favoring storm motion and subsequent outflow mergers inland from the southeast FL coast to the west coast sea breeze. The strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated damaging downbursts, as well as marginally severe hail, given the strong buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg), DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and slightly cooler midlevel temperatures compared to previous days. ...Eastern MA to southeastern ME this afternoon... Pockets of stronger surface heating, weak low-level convergence along a cold front and local sea breeze boundaries could support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though buoyancy will remain modest, somewhat enhanced midlevel flow and effective bulk shear in excess of 30 kt could support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Thompson.. 07/14/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Minor changes were made to the fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022/ ...Synopsis... The dominant upper ridge over the Four Corners region will remain in place for the next several days and will limit overall boundary-layer and surface wind speeds. However, this feature will also promote hot conditions across the Southern Plains into the Southwest and diurnal thunderstorm chances across the Great Basin and Four Corners region. This synoptic regime will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns, but will support regional threats across parts of Nevada and western Kansas. ...Nevada... Despite a generally weak synoptic regime, deep diurnal boundary-layer mixing, coupled with downslope flow off the Sierra Nevada, will likely result in sustained winds around 15 mph across northwest to north-central NV this afternoon. Poor overnight RH recovery is noted across this region, and afternoon RH values should once again fall into the teens for much of the risk area. While critical wind speeds are not expected given weak flow aloft, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Such conditions may overlap with parts of northeast NV that received lightning strikes Wednesday afternoon, posing a threat for holdover fires, though confidence in the northeastern extent of dry/windy conditions is somewhat low. ...West Kansas... A low-amplitude mid-level wave cresting the upper ridge is supporting modest lee pressure falls along the northern High Plains. This trough is expected to consolidate into a weak low over the central Plains, and will support another day of a dry return-flow pattern across western KS. The low wind-speed bias that is common in most guidance under this type of pattern is noted in yesterday's surface observations with observed gusts coming in stronger than anticipated by most deterministic and ensemble solutions. For today, a slightly stronger regional pressure gradient should yield winds closer to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph (after accounting for the noted low bias). Afternoon minimum RH values in the low 20s appear likely over a region with ERC values near or above the 80th percentile (outside of where thunderstorms tracked Wednesday evening). This should support areas of elevated conditions this afternoon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Regional 00 UTC soundings continue to sample steep mid-level lapse rates and ample monsoonal moisture across the Four Corners region and diminishing moisture quality with western extent into Nevada. This matches well with latest satellite-based total precipitable water estimates, which show PWAT values between 0.75 to 0.9 inches across eastern NV. This thermodynamic regime supported a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms yesterday (Wednesday) across NV and western UT. Rainfall amounts increased with eastward extent into central UT (per MRMS QPE estimates). A similar regime is expected for today with isolated dry/wet thunderstorms across central to eastern NV where PWAT values near or below 0.75 inches are expected, and fuels remain receptive after receiving only localized pockets of wetting rainfall on Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1479 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022 Areas affected...Portions of central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141620Z - 141845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A loosely organized complex of thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds through the afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection developed overnight across northeast TX on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest. This cluster has persisted through the morning while moving slowly southwestward. Although low/mid-level flow across much of TX is expected to remain modest, around 15-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level winds should encourage the ongoing thunderstorms to continue progressing southwestward across parts of central TX through the early afternoon. A rather moist airmass is in place ahead of this activity, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Strong diurnal heating will likely continue over the next several hours based on recent visible satellite trends, and instability should further increase in tandem with steepening low-level lapse rates. Even with deep-layer shear remaining modest, the moderate to strong instability forecast to develop, including substantial DCAPE with inverted-v forecast soundings, should support an isolated risk for strong to damaging winds. Still, current expectations are for this damaging wind threat to remain fairly isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31079524 30099569 29959660 30039761 30559855 31389908 32149912 32879871 33099799 33079691 32549686 31669638 31079524 Read more

Pasture conditions were poor in the Lorena area, so hay was not growing, cattle prices were down, and hay prices were up. With just 7.5 inches of rain on a farm so far this year, the grass was not even tall enough to bale, so the rancher has had to purchase hay. He has also sold about two-thirds of his herd, which usually ranges from 15 to 20 cattle, so he did not have to feed them expensive hay through the winter. Hay prices have increased up to 60% since late April. Drought and the high cost of diesel have contributed to the uptick in hay prices. The farmer would typically be making a second hay cutting in late July, but drought has prevented the hay growth. KWTX-TV 10 News Waco (Texas), July 13, 2022

Hundreds of fish were dying in a Richmond pond, creating a strong odor in the neighborhood. The residents were angry that more was not done to save the fish. The residents stocked the pond themselves and tried to relocate the few surviving fish. KRIV-TV FOX 26 Houston (Texas), July 13, 2022

At 2:30 pm, Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance with a fire directly southeast of Mineral Wels, TX. Resources from the local office quickly responded and begin suppression actions along side fire departments from Palo Pinto and Parker counties. Firefighting aircraft were used to knock down the head and dozers constructed line around the perimeter of the

 On the afternoon of July 12, 2022, a fire started 4 miles west of Petrolia, in Clay County. Multiple fire departments responded to mutual aid. The fire is located in very rough terrain, hills, and multiple drop-offs. Fuels are tall grass, thick brush and mesquite. Due to access issues Petrolia VFD requested stated assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS). Local incident commander, and TAMFS are working in unified

North Texas ranchers are deeply culling cattle as grass and water were in short supply amid a hot drought. Ranchers brought more than 2,600 animals to the Decatur Livestock Market, which is the most livestock sold in a single sale since the 2011 drought. Almost all of the buyers were meatpackers. Some counties were dealing with grasshoppers, and stock ponds were running low also. CBS Dallas/Fort Worth (Texas), July 11, 2022

The Post Oak fire has transitioned command back to the local departments.  On Wednesday, July 6th at approximately 3:00pm, Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) responded to a request for assistance in Coryell County near Oglesby. The fire is burning in thick juniper on a difficult to access ridgeline. Resources on scene for initial attack included: 5 dozers, 3 Fire Boss single engine air tankers (water), 3 single engine air tankers (retardant), 3 helicopters, and one air attack platform.  Containment line has been established and a handcrew is working on hot spots in areas of rough terrain. Several volunteer fire departments were on scene during initial attack, including Gatesville, Flat, Oglesby, Osage-Coryell City, and Coryell Office of Emergency Management. TXDOT and Coryell Sheriff's Department are assisting with

Cattle prices at auction in Abilene were reportedly down nearly half of what they were in 2019-2020 on July 12, due to rising feed costs and the extreme drought hitting the Big Country*. Traffic was heavy with more ranchers than usual bringing animals to sell. The extreme heat has dried up pastures and water supplies, making it hard to care for livestock under those conditions, especially given the high cost of feed, hay bales, fertilizer, etc. At the Graham auction, more than 4,000 head with about 1,300 cows were sold. In Abilene, the general manager of the auction was expecting more than 2,000 head with about 700 to 800 cows. Sales at Abilene Livestock Auction were nearly 40% higher since the start of the year. The general manager said that ranchers were selling their livestock early to make as much money as possible. BigCountryHomepage.com (Abilene, Texas), July 12, 2022

Irrigation water in southwest Colorado was cut, adversely affecting irrigated hay producers who expect fewer cuttings this year as well as livestock producers with irrigated pasture. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), July 12, 2022

On the afternoon of July 9, 2022, fire started 6 miles northwest. Fire is located in extremely difficult terrain, and very thick cedar and mesquite. Multiple local fire departments responded to assist, along with State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) and Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS). TAMFS and Seymour Volunteer Fire Department are working in unified

On the evening of July 10, 2022, fire started 4.5 miles northeast of Eliasville. Fire is located in rough terrain, thick oak, mesquite, and brush. Multiple local fire departments responded to assist, along with State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS). TAMFS and local fire department are working in unified