Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 13 17:59:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1468 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1468 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia into eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131757Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and isolated large hail may accompany the stronger storms this afternoon, especially in SC into southern NC. A WW issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...The combination of weak mid-level troughing, lee surface troughing, and ample heating of a moist low-level airmass has supported increased storm coverage/intensity across the Southeast Atlantic Coastline within the past hour or so. The rich low-level moisture and modest low-level lapse rates are contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 17Z mesoanalysis. In addition, RAP forecast soundings show unidirectional (southwesterly) tropospheric flow, but some speed shear in the surface-500 mb layer, contributing to 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, marginal organization of stronger multicell clusters/transient supercells may support a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail this afternoon. A locally more organized severe threat may also materialize across eastern SC into far southern NC given the modest shear profiles. A WW issuance is possible if storms continue to intensify across SC. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... TAE... LAT...LON 30798342 33408108 36167802 36577717 36387627 35927589 35157646 33637878 32328014 31308111 30938146 30668249 30798342 Read more

051
ABPZ20 KNHC 131753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located about 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with the disturbance is beginning to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by Friday or Saturday. The
disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two,
then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend
while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/R. Zelinsky

 Recon flight found a few interior smokes that are no threat to the fire line. Local fire department will continue to patrol and mop up as

MD 1467 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO EXTREME WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into extreme western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131736Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some severe gust potential exists if storms should congeal ahead of a pre-existing outflow boundary. A WW issuance is possible if upscale-growing storms become apparent. DISCUSSION...Mainly elevated storms are in progress across northern MS immediately north of an outflow boundary resulting from earlier convection. This outflow boundary is in the process of stalling along a northwest to southeast oriented line from just west of STF to west of SEM. As the southward-moving convection in northern MS crosses the boundary, the storms will ingest 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE driven by surface temperatures/dewpoints above 90F/75F. Given robust surface-850 mb mixing and 7+ C/km low-level lapse rates, severe gusts may develop from the stronger storms, and a semi-organized wind threat may materialize should storms grow upscale into a convective cluster. Also, the 12Z JAN observed sounding shows mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km. As such, an instance or two of marginally severe hail may also occur. Both observations and model guidance suggest weak tropospheric wind fields and associated shear, so upscale growth/storm organization will be entirely dependent on cold pool mergers. As such, convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon for upscale growth for the consideration of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33909075 33468934 33278858 32898758 32638726 32378725 32038756 31868840 31688914 31718997 32009060 32269080 33089099 33909075 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the Carolinas into Georgia. ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will remain anchored over the western and central U.S., flanked by eastern Pacific and eastern U.S. troughing. A resulting/largely weak surface pattern is expected across most of the U.S., though a weak front lingering across the Southeast will help focus thunderstorms through the period. ...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest... While a capped boundary layer across a large portion of the north-central U.S. will hinder convective development through much of the day, heating/destabilization -- particularly over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies -- will likely yield isolated storm development. Given a belt of enhanced, anticyclonic westerly/west-southwesterly flow aloft around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, storms will spread into lower elevations with time. Given the dry/deep mixed layer, locally gusty/damaging winds may occur near a few of the strongest storms. Meanwhile, convective initiation into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest is difficult to quantify areally/temporally, given the nebulous surface pattern. Development will likely be loosely tied to a short-wave disturbance moving through the anticyclonic belt of flow, especially as a low-level jet strengthens nocturnally. While limited storm coverage expected at this time should temper overall severe potential, ample west-northwesterly/northwesterly flow aloft suggests that a few clusters of southeastward-moving storms will evolve, which would likely be accompanied by some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Such risk will likely continue well into the evening, given low-level warm advection associated with the aforementioned south-southwesterly low-level jet. ...The Southeast... Diurnal heating/destabilization is expected across the Southeast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant cold front expected to extend from southeastern Virginia across the Carolinas, and westward across the central Gulf Coast states. Given the degree of destabilization, weak ascent near this boundary will result in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. While fairly modest shear will limit storm organization, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, which could result in local instances of gusty winds, and perhaps marginal hail, with east-northeastward-moving storms. Risk should diminish through the evening, in tandem with gradual diurnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 07/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the Carolinas into Georgia. ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will remain anchored over the western and central U.S., flanked by eastern Pacific and eastern U.S. troughing. A resulting/largely weak surface pattern is expected across most of the U.S., though a weak front lingering across the Southeast will help focus thunderstorms through the period. ...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest... While a capped boundary layer across a large portion of the north-central U.S. will hinder convective development through much of the day, heating/destabilization -- particularly over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies -- will likely yield isolated storm development. Given a belt of enhanced, anticyclonic westerly/west-southwesterly flow aloft around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, storms will spread into lower elevations with time. Given the dry/deep mixed layer, locally gusty/damaging winds may occur near a few of the strongest storms. Meanwhile, convective initiation into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest is difficult to quantify areally/temporally, given the nebulous surface pattern. Development will likely be loosely tied to a short-wave disturbance moving through the anticyclonic belt of flow, especially as a low-level jet strengthens nocturnally. While limited storm coverage expected at this time should temper overall severe potential, ample west-northwesterly/northwesterly flow aloft suggests that a few clusters of southeastward-moving storms will evolve, which would likely be accompanied by some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Such risk will likely continue well into the evening, given low-level warm advection associated with the aforementioned south-southwesterly low-level jet. ...The Southeast... Diurnal heating/destabilization is expected across the Southeast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant cold front expected to extend from southeastern Virginia across the Carolinas, and westward across the central Gulf Coast states. Given the degree of destabilization, weak ascent near this boundary will result in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. While fairly modest shear will limit storm organization, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, which could result in local instances of gusty winds, and perhaps marginal hail, with east-northeastward-moving storms. Risk should diminish through the evening, in tandem with gradual diurnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 07/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the Carolinas into Georgia. ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will remain anchored over the western and central U.S., flanked by eastern Pacific and eastern U.S. troughing. A resulting/largely weak surface pattern is expected across most of the U.S., though a weak front lingering across the Southeast will help focus thunderstorms through the period. ...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest... While a capped boundary layer across a large portion of the north-central U.S. will hinder convective development through much of the day, heating/destabilization -- particularly over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies -- will likely yield isolated storm development. Given a belt of enhanced, anticyclonic westerly/west-southwesterly flow aloft around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, storms will spread into lower elevations with time. Given the dry/deep mixed layer, locally gusty/damaging winds may occur near a few of the strongest storms. Meanwhile, convective initiation into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest is difficult to quantify areally/temporally, given the nebulous surface pattern. Development will likely be loosely tied to a short-wave disturbance moving through the anticyclonic belt of flow, especially as a low-level jet strengthens nocturnally. While limited storm coverage expected at this time should temper overall severe potential, ample west-northwesterly/northwesterly flow aloft suggests that a few clusters of southeastward-moving storms will evolve, which would likely be accompanied by some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Such risk will likely continue well into the evening, given low-level warm advection associated with the aforementioned south-southwesterly low-level jet. ...The Southeast... Diurnal heating/destabilization is expected across the Southeast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant cold front expected to extend from southeastern Virginia across the Carolinas, and westward across the central Gulf Coast states. Given the degree of destabilization, weak ascent near this boundary will result in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. While fairly modest shear will limit storm organization, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, which could result in local instances of gusty winds, and perhaps marginal hail, with east-northeastward-moving storms. Risk should diminish through the evening, in tandem with gradual diurnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 07/13/2022 Read more

 Fire was checked this morning, few smokes found but no threat to the line. Local fire departments will continue to patrol and mop up as

MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHEASTERN IN...AND NORTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Areas affected...Portions of far southern Lower MI...northeastern IN...and northern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131726Z - 132030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur as thunderstorms move east-southeastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across far southern Lower MI along/near a weak surface front. This convection is occurring beneath a mid/upper-level trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass have contributed to the development of weak instability from parts of southern Lower MI into northern IN/OH. Generally weak west-northwesterly winds at low levels gradually strengthen with height through mid levels. Around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support modest updraft organization, with mainly multicells possible. Isolated instances of strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust convection as it moves east-southeastward this afternoon. The weak instability is expected to limit the overall coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms, and watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 40828634 41368601 41978520 42158474 42118358 41238069 40618078 40118223 40268539 40828634 Read more

MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHEASTERN IN...AND NORTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Areas affected...Portions of far southern Lower MI...northeastern IN...and northern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131726Z - 132030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur as thunderstorms move east-southeastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across far southern Lower MI along/near a weak surface front. This convection is occurring beneath a mid/upper-level trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass have contributed to the development of weak instability from parts of southern Lower MI into northern IN/OH. Generally weak west-northwesterly winds at low levels gradually strengthen with height through mid levels. Around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support modest updraft organization, with mainly multicells possible. Isolated instances of strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust convection as it moves east-southeastward this afternoon. The weak instability is expected to limit the overall coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms, and watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 40828634 41368601 41978520 42158474 42118358 41238069 40618078 40118223 40268539 40828634 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly westward, based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Near critical wind/RH still appears possible across parts of southwest into central/northeast NV, within a broader region of elevated conditions covering much of NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across the Great Basin today due to a combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions as well as the potential for dry thunderstorms. Monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies per morning water-vapor imagery. A weak impulse currently along the West Coast will propagate northeastward along the periphery of the stagnant Four Corners ridge, which will both induce a mid-level mass response across the Great Basin and provide lift for thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Nevada and adjacent states... The east/northeastward propagation of the weak West Coast impulse is expected to result in a modest mass response across the Great Basin with increasing southerly winds between 800-600 mb. This will aid in sustaining 15-20 mph winds through central NV with frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. The downslope trajectories off the southern Sierra Nevada coupled with warm temperatures will support 10-15% RH values by mid afternoon across much of the region. While elevated conditions are expected across much of NV, the greatest fire-weather concern will likely reside across central to northeastern NV under the axis of stronger mid-level winds. This zone will see the greatest potential for critical conditions, through latest ensemble guidance continues to show only meager support for sustained critical conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture was well sampled by 00 UTC soundings across the much of the western CONUS with PWATs ranging from 0.6-1.0 inch. Soundings from the Great Basin region, including LKN, SLC, and BOI, also sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions with mean RH between 15-30%. These conditions supported a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms yesterday (Tuesday), and are expected to largely remain in place for today. Lift ahead of the weak West Coast impulse, combined with orographic ascent, should result in another day of a wet/dry storm mixture across northeast NV into adjacent areas of UT and ID where fuels largely remain receptive and a weak QPF signal is noted in most guidance. A few dry thunderstorms are possible outside of this region to the north across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies where similar PWAT values are expected, but more marginal fuel status preludes a more expansive risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly westward, based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Near critical wind/RH still appears possible across parts of southwest into central/northeast NV, within a broader region of elevated conditions covering much of NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across the Great Basin today due to a combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions as well as the potential for dry thunderstorms. Monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies per morning water-vapor imagery. A weak impulse currently along the West Coast will propagate northeastward along the periphery of the stagnant Four Corners ridge, which will both induce a mid-level mass response across the Great Basin and provide lift for thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Nevada and adjacent states... The east/northeastward propagation of the weak West Coast impulse is expected to result in a modest mass response across the Great Basin with increasing southerly winds between 800-600 mb. This will aid in sustaining 15-20 mph winds through central NV with frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. The downslope trajectories off the southern Sierra Nevada coupled with warm temperatures will support 10-15% RH values by mid afternoon across much of the region. While elevated conditions are expected across much of NV, the greatest fire-weather concern will likely reside across central to northeastern NV under the axis of stronger mid-level winds. This zone will see the greatest potential for critical conditions, through latest ensemble guidance continues to show only meager support for sustained critical conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture was well sampled by 00 UTC soundings across the much of the western CONUS with PWATs ranging from 0.6-1.0 inch. Soundings from the Great Basin region, including LKN, SLC, and BOI, also sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions with mean RH between 15-30%. These conditions supported a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms yesterday (Tuesday), and are expected to largely remain in place for today. Lift ahead of the weak West Coast impulse, combined with orographic ascent, should result in another day of a wet/dry storm mixture across northeast NV into adjacent areas of UT and ID where fuels largely remain receptive and a weak QPF signal is noted in most guidance. A few dry thunderstorms are possible outside of this region to the north across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies where similar PWAT values are expected, but more marginal fuel status preludes a more expansive risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly westward, based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Near critical wind/RH still appears possible across parts of southwest into central/northeast NV, within a broader region of elevated conditions covering much of NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across the Great Basin today due to a combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions as well as the potential for dry thunderstorms. Monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies per morning water-vapor imagery. A weak impulse currently along the West Coast will propagate northeastward along the periphery of the stagnant Four Corners ridge, which will both induce a mid-level mass response across the Great Basin and provide lift for thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Nevada and adjacent states... The east/northeastward propagation of the weak West Coast impulse is expected to result in a modest mass response across the Great Basin with increasing southerly winds between 800-600 mb. This will aid in sustaining 15-20 mph winds through central NV with frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. The downslope trajectories off the southern Sierra Nevada coupled with warm temperatures will support 10-15% RH values by mid afternoon across much of the region. While elevated conditions are expected across much of NV, the greatest fire-weather concern will likely reside across central to northeastern NV under the axis of stronger mid-level winds. This zone will see the greatest potential for critical conditions, through latest ensemble guidance continues to show only meager support for sustained critical conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture was well sampled by 00 UTC soundings across the much of the western CONUS with PWATs ranging from 0.6-1.0 inch. Soundings from the Great Basin region, including LKN, SLC, and BOI, also sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions with mean RH between 15-30%. These conditions supported a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms yesterday (Tuesday), and are expected to largely remain in place for today. Lift ahead of the weak West Coast impulse, combined with orographic ascent, should result in another day of a wet/dry storm mixture across northeast NV into adjacent areas of UT and ID where fuels largely remain receptive and a weak QPF signal is noted in most guidance. A few dry thunderstorms are possible outside of this region to the north across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies where similar PWAT values are expected, but more marginal fuel status preludes a more expansive risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly westward, based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Near critical wind/RH still appears possible across parts of southwest into central/northeast NV, within a broader region of elevated conditions covering much of NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across the Great Basin today due to a combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions as well as the potential for dry thunderstorms. Monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies per morning water-vapor imagery. A weak impulse currently along the West Coast will propagate northeastward along the periphery of the stagnant Four Corners ridge, which will both induce a mid-level mass response across the Great Basin and provide lift for thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Nevada and adjacent states... The east/northeastward propagation of the weak West Coast impulse is expected to result in a modest mass response across the Great Basin with increasing southerly winds between 800-600 mb. This will aid in sustaining 15-20 mph winds through central NV with frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. The downslope trajectories off the southern Sierra Nevada coupled with warm temperatures will support 10-15% RH values by mid afternoon across much of the region. While elevated conditions are expected across much of NV, the greatest fire-weather concern will likely reside across central to northeastern NV under the axis of stronger mid-level winds. This zone will see the greatest potential for critical conditions, through latest ensemble guidance continues to show only meager support for sustained critical conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture was well sampled by 00 UTC soundings across the much of the western CONUS with PWATs ranging from 0.6-1.0 inch. Soundings from the Great Basin region, including LKN, SLC, and BOI, also sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions with mean RH between 15-30%. These conditions supported a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms yesterday (Tuesday), and are expected to largely remain in place for today. Lift ahead of the weak West Coast impulse, combined with orographic ascent, should result in another day of a wet/dry storm mixture across northeast NV into adjacent areas of UT and ID where fuels largely remain receptive and a weak QPF signal is noted in most guidance. A few dry thunderstorms are possible outside of this region to the north across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies where similar PWAT values are expected, but more marginal fuel status preludes a more expansive risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly westward, based on the latest guidance. Otherwise, no changes have been made. Near critical wind/RH still appears possible across parts of southwest into central/northeast NV, within a broader region of elevated conditions covering much of NV into southeast OR/southwest ID. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across the Great Basin today due to a combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions as well as the potential for dry thunderstorms. Monsoonal moisture continues to spread northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies per morning water-vapor imagery. A weak impulse currently along the West Coast will propagate northeastward along the periphery of the stagnant Four Corners ridge, which will both induce a mid-level mass response across the Great Basin and provide lift for thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Nevada and adjacent states... The east/northeastward propagation of the weak West Coast impulse is expected to result in a modest mass response across the Great Basin with increasing southerly winds between 800-600 mb. This will aid in sustaining 15-20 mph winds through central NV with frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. The downslope trajectories off the southern Sierra Nevada coupled with warm temperatures will support 10-15% RH values by mid afternoon across much of the region. While elevated conditions are expected across much of NV, the greatest fire-weather concern will likely reside across central to northeastern NV under the axis of stronger mid-level winds. This zone will see the greatest potential for critical conditions, through latest ensemble guidance continues to show only meager support for sustained critical conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture was well sampled by 00 UTC soundings across the much of the western CONUS with PWATs ranging from 0.6-1.0 inch. Soundings from the Great Basin region, including LKN, SLC, and BOI, also sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions with mean RH between 15-30%. These conditions supported a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms yesterday (Tuesday), and are expected to largely remain in place for today. Lift ahead of the weak West Coast impulse, combined with orographic ascent, should result in another day of a wet/dry storm mixture across northeast NV into adjacent areas of UT and ID where fuels largely remain receptive and a weak QPF signal is noted in most guidance. A few dry thunderstorms are possible outside of this region to the north across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies where similar PWAT values are expected, but more marginal fuel status preludes a more expansive risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 13 16:56:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MT AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and isolated hail will be most likely across western and central Montana, as well as parts of Mississippi and Alabama. ...MT this afternoon through late evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/southern BC will brush western/northern MT while moving around the northwest periphery of the ridge over the Four Corners. Low-level moisture will be rather limited across MT this afternoon, but there will be sufficient midlevel moisture and surface heating/mixing for high-based convection this afternoon/evening. The more probable corridor for afternoon storm development will be by mid afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT, on the southeast edge of the more persistent clouds this morning across west central/northwest MT. The combination of deep inverted-v profiles and 35-50 kt midlevel flow will support storm clusters capable of producing severe outflow winds from southwest into north central MT this evening. ...Central MS/AL this afternoon... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across northern MS along a slow-moving cold front, and a mesoscale outflow boundary is located farther south from west central AL into northeast MS. As surface temperatures warm into the 90s and dewpoints remain in the low-mid 70s, additional thunderstorm development is expected. Weak northwesterly-northerly midlevel flow suggests that the storm clusters should move slowly southeastward or southward, with a tendency for new storm development toward the southwest, in the direction of the maximum boundary-layer theta-e and largest buoyancy over central MS. ...Southeast Atlantic states this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough and belt of 30-50 kt midlevel flow is present from southeast GA across the coastal Carolinas. Pockets of surface heating to the southeast of a thicker cloud band will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Low-level lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but moderate buoyancy and the somewhat enhanced midlevel flow could support isolated damaging outflow gusts with multicell clusters. ...Northern OH and vicinity this afternoon... In association with a midlevel trough over southeast Lower MI, residual low-level moisture/daytime heating and weak buoyancy will support thunderstorm development this afternoon. Cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear around 35 kt could support a few cells/clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail/wind. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MT AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and isolated hail will be most likely across western and central Montana, as well as parts of Mississippi and Alabama. ...MT this afternoon through late evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/southern BC will brush western/northern MT while moving around the northwest periphery of the ridge over the Four Corners. Low-level moisture will be rather limited across MT this afternoon, but there will be sufficient midlevel moisture and surface heating/mixing for high-based convection this afternoon/evening. The more probable corridor for afternoon storm development will be by mid afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT, on the southeast edge of the more persistent clouds this morning across west central/northwest MT. The combination of deep inverted-v profiles and 35-50 kt midlevel flow will support storm clusters capable of producing severe outflow winds from southwest into north central MT this evening. ...Central MS/AL this afternoon... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across northern MS along a slow-moving cold front, and a mesoscale outflow boundary is located farther south from west central AL into northeast MS. As surface temperatures warm into the 90s and dewpoints remain in the low-mid 70s, additional thunderstorm development is expected. Weak northwesterly-northerly midlevel flow suggests that the storm clusters should move slowly southeastward or southward, with a tendency for new storm development toward the southwest, in the direction of the maximum boundary-layer theta-e and largest buoyancy over central MS. ...Southeast Atlantic states this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough and belt of 30-50 kt midlevel flow is present from southeast GA across the coastal Carolinas. Pockets of surface heating to the southeast of a thicker cloud band will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Low-level lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but moderate buoyancy and the somewhat enhanced midlevel flow could support isolated damaging outflow gusts with multicell clusters. ...Northern OH and vicinity this afternoon... In association with a midlevel trough over southeast Lower MI, residual low-level moisture/daytime heating and weak buoyancy will support thunderstorm development this afternoon. Cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear around 35 kt could support a few cells/clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail/wind. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MT AND MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and isolated hail will be most likely across western and central Montana, as well as parts of Mississippi and Alabama. ...MT this afternoon through late evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over WA/southern BC will brush western/northern MT while moving around the northwest periphery of the ridge over the Four Corners. Low-level moisture will be rather limited across MT this afternoon, but there will be sufficient midlevel moisture and surface heating/mixing for high-based convection this afternoon/evening. The more probable corridor for afternoon storm development will be by mid afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest MT, on the southeast edge of the more persistent clouds this morning across west central/northwest MT. The combination of deep inverted-v profiles and 35-50 kt midlevel flow will support storm clusters capable of producing severe outflow winds from southwest into north central MT this evening. ...Central MS/AL this afternoon... Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across northern MS along a slow-moving cold front, and a mesoscale outflow boundary is located farther south from west central AL into northeast MS. As surface temperatures warm into the 90s and dewpoints remain in the low-mid 70s, additional thunderstorm development is expected. Weak northwesterly-northerly midlevel flow suggests that the storm clusters should move slowly southeastward or southward, with a tendency for new storm development toward the southwest, in the direction of the maximum boundary-layer theta-e and largest buoyancy over central MS. ...Southeast Atlantic states this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough and belt of 30-50 kt midlevel flow is present from southeast GA across the coastal Carolinas. Pockets of surface heating to the southeast of a thicker cloud band will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Low-level lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but moderate buoyancy and the somewhat enhanced midlevel flow could support isolated damaging outflow gusts with multicell clusters. ...Northern OH and vicinity this afternoon... In association with a midlevel trough over southeast Lower MI, residual low-level moisture/daytime heating and weak buoyancy will support thunderstorm development this afternoon. Cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear around 35 kt could support a few cells/clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail/wind. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/13/2022 Read more