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Many cows and bulls were brought to the El Reno cow and bull sale, due to severe drought and heat. The high number of animals led to sharply lower prices. Oklahoma Farm Report (Oklahoma City), July 12, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeast across northwest UT into far southern ID, based on the latest thunderstorm guidance. The Elevated area has been expanded westward across northeast CA into south-central OR, where sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear possible concurrent with minimum RH values of 15-20%. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 07/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Great Basin for today and will likely emerge for portions of the northern Sierra into southern OR. Upper-level ridging over the Four Corners will continue to foster thunderstorm chances across the Great Basin. A thermal low over northern NV will support breezy conditions across southern portions of the state, while a weak mid-level wave will support windy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Nevada... Ensemble guidance continues to show fairly high probability in sustained winds between 15-20 mph across southern NV in response to the diurnal deepening of a thermal low to the north. Deep boundary-layer mixing may allow for a few gusts above 20 mph, but generally weak flow aloft will limit the potential for critical wind speeds. Poor moisture recovery and hot afternoon temperatures will support another day of RH values near 10-15%. This, combined with antecedent dry fuels, will support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Northern Sierra Nevada... Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a mid-level impulse embedded within the mean southwesterly flow that is in place across the Pacific Northwest. This feature will not only support increasing thunderstorm chances across the region, but will also enhance boundary-layer flow across the northern Sierra Nevada into southern OR along and ahead of a surface trough. Most solutions suggest sustained winds between 15-20 mph will be common with locally stronger winds possible in the lee of terrain features. Dry fine fuels and afternoon RH values near 15-20% will support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture lingers across the great Four Corners region and has increased across much of the Great Basin and West Coast per 00 UTC soundings. Most soundings continue to show sufficient mid-level moisture to support 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop deep, dry boundary layers. These thermodynamic profiles are expected to linger through the day (per forecast soundings) and will support dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin, central Sierra Nevada, and across parts of the Pacific Northwest. While dry lightning is possible across all these regions, the risk area denotes locations where regional fuels are sufficiently dry to support a fire weather concern. Thunderstorms with occasional dry lightning are possible across central UT where fuels remain dry, but guidance remains consistent in showing a stronger QPF signal for today compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1455 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WV INTO NORTHERN VA...WESTERN/CENTRAL MD...AND DC
Mesoscale Discussion 1455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Areas affected...Portions of WV into northern VA...western/central MD...and DC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121648Z - 121915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail should increase this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed as of 1645Z near the OH/WV border. This activity is occurring just ahead of a weak surface cold front. These thunderstorms and additional convective development should spread eastward across much of WV through the afternoon. With robust diurnal heating occurring and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to be present across the warm sector ahead of this activity. This region will be on the southern periphery of a strong mid-level jet over the Northeast, but modestly enhanced mid-level westerlies should still support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells should occur given the favorable shear. Thunderstorms may also develop along a pre-frontal trough over parts of northern VA/western MD and vicinity later this afternoon as residual convective inhibition eventually erodes. As low-level lapse rates steepen and DCAPE increases, damaging downdraft winds will become a concern as thunderstorms gradually increase in coverage and intensity. Some severe hail may also occur with any cells that can remain discrete given the modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates aloft. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed in the next couple of hours as more convection develops. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38378242 39578079 39717948 39717616 39507616 39027647 38587660 38377702 38147825 37837916 37678026 37618129 37808222 38378242 Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0460 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 460 SEVERE TSTM NY PA VT 121645Z - 122300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 460 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and northeast New York Northeast Pennsylvania Central and northern Vermont * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to form and move eastward, along and immediately east of a cold front. The storm environment will favor a mix of small clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging outflow gusts and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Burlington VT to 40 miles south southeast of Binghamton NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging winds, are expected from New England through the Mid-Atlantic States into the central Appalachian region and Tennessee Valley, especially this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms may also be noted across the Upper Midwest and over the central High Plains. ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this afternoon/evening... No changes to the previous outlook. Within a broad midlevel trough over the Great Lakes, an embedded speed maximum will eject eastward/northeastward from the central Appalachians/lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and New England this afternoon/evening, as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward/southeastward from the upper OH Valley and western PA/NY. Destabilization will proceed from west-to-east through the afternoon in advance of the front in conjunction with low-level moisture advection and surface heating, and visible satellite imagery suggests that multiple cells/small clusters will form along and ahead of the cold front by early-mid afternoon from central PA/NY eastward. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and relatively long/straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt is expected from the Mid-Atlantic northward, along with DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The near-storm environment and expected convective mode will favor clusters and supercells capable of producing damaging winds, though isolated large hail and an isolated tornado or two may also occur with the strongest storms. Some upscale growth into line segments will be possible, which would favor damaging winds as the primary threat. ...Ozarks to TN Valley this afternoon through late evening... Vertical shear will weaken with southwestward extent along a cold front moving slowly southward into TN/AR. Surface temperatures will warm into the 95-100 F range by late afternoon, with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy immediately ahead of the front. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening along the front, and the strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated strong/damaging downburst winds from late afternoon into this evening. ...Central High Plains this evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s reside across eastern CO as of mid morning, though some vertical mixing is expected this afternoon along with strong surface heating. A few high-based storms are expected to form late this afternoon/evening immediately east of the higher terrain, along a developing surface lee trough from southeast WY into northeast CO. Deep-layer northwesterly shear will be sufficient for some storm organization/supercell structures, while the steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy support the threat for isolated strong-severe outflow winds and marginally severe hail for a few hours late this afternoon/evening. ...MN/WI this afternoon/evening... An embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward from southern MB/far western ON across northern MN and WI through this evening. Surface heating and residual low-level moisture, beneath cool midlevel temperatures (near -15 C at 500 mb), will result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon with minimal convective inhibition. Thus, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from northeast MN into northern WI, where the modest buoyancy and deep-layer west-northwesterly shear will be sufficient for clusters and low-end supercells capable of producing marginally severe hail and outflow gusts for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/12/2022 Read more

MD 1454 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY/VT INTO PA AND FAR NORTHERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Areas affected...Portions of northern NY/VT into PA and far northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121540Z - 121745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The overall severe threat should gradually increase into the afternoon, with both damaging winds and hail possible. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...An upper trough evident on water vapor satellite imagery over the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec will continue eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. Rather strong mid-level flow of 45-55+ kt will accompany the upper trough, and aid in strong effective bulk shear and updraft organization. Partly to mostly sunny conditions are ongoing across much of NY/VT into PA. Continued diurnal heating will likely result in surface temperatures increasing into well into the 80s and lower 90s later this afternoon. MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop ahead of a poorly defined cold front. Weak convergence along/ahead of this boundary and ascent associated with the upper trough will aid robust thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours. Deep-layer shear of 45-50+ kt will support some potential for supercells with both a hail and damaging wind threat. Still, most guidance suggests that a line of convection should eventually consolidate with eastward extent into eastern NY/PA later this afternoon. If this evolution occurs, then damaging winds should become the primary severe hazard. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be needed from parts of northern NY/VT into PA and vicinity to address this gradually increasing severe threat. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 40137994 43567509 45067340 45057209 44487223 43447286 41307439 40367559 39947635 39757779 39737942 40137994 Read more

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121459 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 Corrected syntax error in headline ...DARBY A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 129.7W ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 129.7 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual west-northwestward turn beginning tonight into tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours followed by more rapid weakening later this week. Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DARBY A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Jul 12 the center of Darby was located near 14.7, -129.7 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Jul 2022 14:59:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Jul 2022 15:22:40 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 350 WTPZ45 KNHC 121448 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 While Darby remains an impressively compact hurricane, there has been a bit of erosion in the inner-core convective structure this morning. The eye in particular has become less distinct and has cooled relative to yesterday afternoon, though the eyewall convection remains strong and quite circular. While an AMSR2 microwave pass at 1042 UTC still showed a closed eyewall, the convection on the northwestern side has eroded some compared to yesterday. Darby remains a very small tropical cyclone, with overnight scatterometer wind data indicating tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 40 n mi to the northeast of the center. While the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak classifications were a consensus CI 6.0/115 kt, the objective ADT and SATCON data is quite a bit lower. The initial intensity on this advisory is set at 110 kt, blending the guidance, but favoring the somewhat higher subjective Dvorak estimates. While the current vertical wind shear (VWS) over Darby remains very low, sea-surface temperatures underneath the hurricane are gradually decreasing, now currently just under 27 C. It seems likely that Darby is now post-peak intensity and should begin to gradually weaken in the short-term under the less favorable thermodynamic environment. After 24 hours, a combination of an increasingly stable and dry airmass, plus an increase in southwesterly VWS from a broad upper-level trough to the northwest of Darby, is expected to lead to a more rapid weakening trend later this week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is still on the high side of the guidance envelope early on, but then shows a faster rate of weakening as the small cyclone encounters a more hostile environment. Darby is still expected to become post-tropical by 96 hours as deep convection is completely removed from the center and dissipates as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models at that period. Darby continues to move on a due westward heading at 270/14 kt. There is not much new to report with the track philosophy, as a mid-level ridge currently north of Darby will be eroded some by the aforementioned upper-level trough. This should result in a bit more west-northwest bend in Darby's track between 24-60 hours. After that period, Darby is expected to become an increasingly shallow vortex, and its track should turn back westward following the trade-wind flow around a large low-level subtropical ridge poleward of Hawaii. The latest track forecast is little changed from the prior advisory, and remains close to the tightly clustered consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 14.7N 129.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 121445 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 130W 64 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 135W 34 1 78(79) 16(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 135W 50 X 43(43) 33(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 135W 64 X 16(16) 34(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 121444 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.7W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.7W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging winds, are expected from New England through the Mid-Atlantic States into the central Appalachian region and Tennessee Valley, especially this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms may also be noted across the Upper Midwest and over the central High Plains. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... A relatively favorable setup for severe weather is in place across the region, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk with a somewhat higher/semi-focused corridor of likely severe storms mainly capable of wind damage. Early this morning, a notable shortwave trough/speed max are crossing the Lower Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity and will reach northern New England later today. 12z regional observed soundings already sample strong westerlies aloft at locations such as IAD/BUF/PIT, with the Pittsburgh (PIT) sounding also sampling a plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates that will advect eastward today. Surface heating will lead to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the eastward-advancing front and near a pre-frontal surface trough. This will likely lead to scattered convective development ahead of the front by midday, which will spread into New England later in the afternoon. Scattered convection may be delayed a few hours across the middle Atlantic into the central Appalachians as large-scale forcing will be negligible at lower latitudes. Even so, ample buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector and forecast shear should support the possibility for organized updrafts, potentially including a few initial supercells. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat with convection this afternoon/evening across this region, but a few instances of hail and/or a brief tornado could also occur ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes... A secondary clipper-type shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the region later this afternoon into tonight. Low-level moisture will be limited, but cooling temperatures aloft and strong surface heating could support some stronger semi-low-topped storms this afternoon through early evening. Locally damaging winds and possibly hail could occur particularly across northern/eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. ...Central High Plains... Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will exist on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered near the Four Corners area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon and spread southeastward across southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle. While PW values are not particularly high across this region, SBCAPE values could approach 1500 J/kg, which should be enough to warrant at least some threat for several hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/12/2022 Read more

704
ABPZ20 KNHC 121159
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located more than 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this
week into the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift
westward for the next day or two, then move west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph later this week while remaining offshore of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Hearst Castle changed its operations to conserve water due to limited resources and for firefighting. The restrooms at the Visitor Center were closed and replaced with portable chemical toilets. Bus and vehicle washing was suspended, and irrigation around the Visitor Center ended. The restrooms at Hearst Beach were also replaced with portable toilets. Hearst Castle began operating under water restrictions in May in accordance with its Drought Contingency Plan. KSBY-TV San Luis Obispo (Calif.), July 12, 2022

Houston Public Works said that they have been receiving an average of 300 calls per week about water leaks since the heat ramped up in June. On July 10, they had 238 open work orders. Repair crews aim to respond to the largest leaks first, which leaves some of the smaller leaks running for a while. KTRK ABC 13 (Houston, Texas), July 11, 2022 Dry soil in Houston led to 50 water main breaks over the weekend, indicating that the dry soil is shifting and stressing the pipes. KHOU (Houston, Texas), June 22, 2022

Water conservation in May was 3.1% statewide as Northern Californians curbed water use by 8.5%, while Southern Californians cut by 2.2%. This is still shy of the 15% water conservation compared to 2020 levels that Gov. Newsom requested in July 2021. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), July 8, 2022 Amid California’s third year of drought, urban water use was up 17.6% in April, despite Gov. Newsom’s call to conserve 15% compared to a year ago. April is the third month in 2022 where water use has risen instead of decreased. San Francisco Chronicle (Calif.), June 7, 2022 Californians’ water use in March was up 18.9% from March 2020 as people watered lawns earlier than usual amid the driest start to the year on record. Water use averaged 77 gallons per person per day. Even though Gov. Newsom asked for 15% water conservation, water use has gradually risen. Statewide, water consumption is up just 3.7% since July compared to 2020, falling short of Newsom’s 15% goal. To encourage additional water conservation, Gov. Newsom pledged to direct $100 million toward a statewide advertising campaign. He also vowed to spend $211 million to save more water in state government buildings by replacing plumbing fixtures and irrigation controls. Associated Press News (New York), May 10, 2022

Drought has nearly decimated the corn in Bell County. Killeen Daily Herald (Texas), July 11, 2022