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Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 113 WTPZ41 KNHC 161448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Estelle has continued to strengthen this morning. Earlier passive microwave imagery indicated the vortex was slightly tilted in the vertical, likely due to 10-15 kt of deep-layer northeasterly shear over the small cyclone. The mid-level eye feature was still open on the upshear side, but recent satellite trends show an expanding central dense overcast with -75 to -80 deg C cloud tops spreading over its center. The 12 UTC objective and subjective satellite estimates were all at 55 kt, but given the recent improved satellite presentation and an uptick in the ADT estimates, the advisory intensity is set at 60 kt. Further strengthening is expected as Estelle moves within a moist and unstable environment over very warm SSTs. Of course, this assumes that Estelle is able to close off its inner core to help resist the negative effects of continued moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer shear. The latest intensity guidance unanimously supports at least steady strengthening over the next 24-36 h, and SHIPS/LGEM favor rapid intensification (RI) with some indications that the shear could weaken a bit later today. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and explicitly forecasts RI, generally between the multi-model consensus and the most aggressive SHIPS/LGEM aids. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Later next week, increasing shear and decreasing SSTs along its track should lead to a weakening trend on days 3-5. Estelle is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge entrenched over the southwestern U.S. should keep steering Estelle west-northwestward during the next several days. There is increased spread in the track guidance on days 3-5, with the GFS on the far northern edge of the guidance envelope and the ECWMF and UKMET faster and much farther south. The NHC track forecast is nudged just a bit south of the previous one in the extended range, but still lies slightly to the north of the TVCE and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 14.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 905 FOPZ11 KNHC 161447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 91 6(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 105W 50 29 39(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 105W 64 10 31(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 29(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 18(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 70(73) 8(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 8(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) X(31) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 3(28) X(28) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 9(42) 1(43) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 12(69) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161447 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...ESTELLE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 103.7W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 103.7 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and continued strengthening is expected during the next day or two. Estelle is likely to become a hurricane later today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are beginning to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ESTELLE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 the center of Estelle was located near 14.0, -103.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

On the afternoon of July 13, 2022 a fire started in southeast side of Shackelford County. Fire is located in rocky terrain and is burning in thick mesquite and oak fuels. Shackelford County Volunteer Fire Department requested assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS). State resources from TAMFS responded to the fire and are on scene working with the local incident commander under unified

Texas A&M Forest Service is responding to a request for assistance on the Mustang Fire. The fire ignited the afternoon of July 15, 2022, north of Godley, Texas in Johnson County.The fire quickly escaped initial attack efforts, prompting evacuations in the area. Johnson County Deputies are evacuating homes in the 9400 block of County Road 917 (Not FM 917). More updates can be found on their Facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/jocotxsheriff. All Evacuations have been lifted at this time.Texas A&M Forest Service is working in unified command with the local jurisdiction. State resources include suppression aircraft, engines and heavy

Fire being shifted into monitor status - will be monitored from local resources.

Texas A&M Forest Service is responding to a request for assistance on the Texas Forts Fire. The fire ignited north of Strawn in Palo Pinto County, Texas on the afternoon of July 12, 2022. The fire is actively burning in thick juniper vegetation and rough terrain.Four dozers from the local Texas A&M Forest Service office responded to the fire as well as a strike team of engines and a hand crew. An air attack platform, helicopter and fire bosses have also assisted with suppression efforts. At this time there is a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) in place, please keep all aircraft out of the area including all drones both personal and professional.Texas A&M Forest Service is working in unified command with the local

 At 2:00 pm on July 13, 2022 resources from Texas A&M Forest Service were requested to respond to a fire located south east of Tolar, TX. The fire is burning in thick juniper brush in challenging terrain near a rock quarry. Resources from multiple local departments were on scene rapidly and aerial assists are being used to knock down the fire so that ground resources can better access the fire. Dozers and engines from Texas A&M Forest Service are on scene and are working to construct line around the perimeter of the fire.With multiple aerial resources working in the area it is important for members of the public to remember that if you fly we can not. Drones entering the fire area put all of our firefighters at risk and will force our aerial assets to stay

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 15 17:56:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six-E, located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the central Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A relatively stagnant upper flow regime will persist across the U.S. Saturday, as a ridge remains dominant across the western and south-central states. Meanwhile, a trough will shift slowly eastward across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, while a second trough over eastern North America continues making gradual eastward progress. Within the northwesterly flow between the western ridge and eastern trough, a series of vorticity maxima -- loosely functioning as a broader-scale short-wave trough -- will move southeastward out of the northern Plains and across the Upper Midwest through the period. At the surface, a cold front will move slowly across the Pacific Northwest, while a second/weaker front sags slowly southeastward across the Midwest and central Plains. ...Central High Plains to northern Missouri... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the northern and central Plains, with lingering convection and associated boundaries a complicating factor with respect to storm evolution/severe potential later in the day Saturday. While limited severe risk may linger across the Dakotas and Minnesota during the day, uncertainty prevails, precluding any severe-weather probabilities across this region in this update. From a larger-scale perspective, a surface front progged to extend east-to-west across the central Plains will be a focus for convective development. Isolated storms may initially develop across the central High Plains, while warm advection to the cool side of the boundary also suggests late afternoon storm development, as daytime heating contributes to a corridor of moderate destabilization. As a south-southwesterly low-level jet develops during the evening, isolated storms moving eastward across the High Plains may interact/congeal with convection farther east, potentially yielding an eastward-/southeastward-moving MCS across Kansas. While this scenario remains uncertain, the strengthening low-level jet beneath 40 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow suggests this potential. In any case, gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible from afternoon into the overnight hours, with any stronger storms. ..Goss.. 07/15/2022 Read more

MD 1486 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Areas affected...Parts of western into central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151721Z - 151915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms is expected to intensify and become better organized east of the Continental Divide. This may be accompanied by a developing swath of strong to severe wind gusts across and south of the Great Falls vicinity into central Montana (north through south of Lewistown) by 2-4 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of one notable short wave perturbation progressing northeast of the Oregon Cascades, forcing for ascent has supported a sustained cluster of thunderstorms now spreading into and across the Continental Divide vicinity of western Montana. This activity appears to be focused near the nose of a 40-50 kt jet streak around 500 mb, with associated momentum contributing to a current forward propagation up to 40-45 kt. As forcing for ascent spread east of the higher terrain into areas near and south of the Great Falls vicinity within the next few hours, the environment appears likely to become increasingly conducive to renewed, intensifying thunderstorm development along an associated strengthening surface cold pool. In advance of the cold pool, forecast soundings suggest that further insolation will contribute to a seasonably warm and well-mixed boundary layer, including large surface temperature/dew point spreads up to around 40 F, but also characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer shear, the evolution of an increasingly organized convective system seems possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts while spreading into central Montana by 20-22Z. ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/15/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47601241 48121135 48380993 47750874 46800882 46250920 45451212 46481174 47601241 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 07/15/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, the mid-level flow pattern will remain dominated by a prominent anticyclone centered over the Southwest and southern High Plains. To the west of the ridge, a Pacific trough will move shoreward, bolstering mid-level southwesterly flow across the Cascades and northern Rockies. Beneath the ridge, a strong monsoonal surge will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms across the Southwest. Meanwhile, very warm and dry conditions are expected across the southern and central High Plains with temperatures exceeding 100F. ...Northern Great Basin... Modest southwesterly flow along the periphery of the ridge will support dry downslope flow off the Sierra across portions of northern NV, southeastern OR and eastern ID. Surface RH below 15% and winds near 15 mph will support elevated fire weather concerns given area fuel ERC values above the 90th percentile. Winds should gradually weaken overnight as the shortwave and stronger flow aloft move quickly northeastward. To the south and east, monsoonal moisture will support scattered thunderstorms across portions of central and northeastern NV. Along the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal plume, model soundings show initially dry sub-cloud layers greater than 2km deep supporting dry strikes over receptive fuels. Storm coverage and PWATs are forecast to gradually increase through the day, supporting wetter storms. However, the potential for a few drier strikes initially within receptive fuels necessitates continuation of the IsoDryT area across north/northeastern NV. ...Southwest KS and the Panhandles... Beneath the center of a strong and sustained mid-level anticyclone, a very warm airmass should develop across portions of the southern and central High Plains this afternoon. Low-level southerly flow bolstered by a weak lee trough/decaying cold front may support gusty winds to 15-25 mph coincident with surface RH below 20%. Ongoing drought and excessive heat (temps greater than 100F) will favor curing of short-hour fuels and the possibility of Elevated fire weather conditions. ...Southern Cascades... A gradual increase in low-level westerly flow is forecast today as mid and upper-level winds strengthen with the passing trough. Hi-res guidance indicates at least localized potential for winds greater than 15 mph through terrain gaps and in the immediate lee of the southern Cascades. Dry and warm conditions with humidity below 30% may coincide with these gustier winds, supporting locally elevated fire weather conditions across portions of OR. However, uncertainty on the areal coverage of sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains high, precluding any Elevated delineations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms, including a risk of damaging winds and hail, will be possible across parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains today and tonight. ...MT/ND... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across eastern OR. This feature and its associated mid-level speed max will track across ID into MT this afternoon. Large-scale lift ahead of the trough is already resulting in scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of western MT, which will spread eastward into central/eastern MT this afternoon and evening. Hot surface temperatures in the 90s or low 100s are expected, yielding a deeply mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This will support high-based convection capable of locally damaging wind gusts. This activity will likely spread into western ND after dark. Winds aloft weaken with southward extent, but at least isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible into parts of northern/eastern WY and western NE/SD this afternoon. ..Hart/Kerr.. 07/15/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jul 2022 14:40:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jul 2022 15:28:39 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Conventional satellite data and passive microwave imagery indicate that the low pressure system NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has become better defined this morning. The associated convection has been persistent and is presently organized into a couple of fragmented curved bands that wrap around the northern and western portions of its circulation. The system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that the system will maintain this general heading and speed during the next couple of days while moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone early next week, which should keep it on a west-northwestward heading with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5. The official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the TVCE consensus aid. The current track and wind radii forecasts keep tropical-storm-force winds well offshore of southwestern Mexico, so no coastal watches or warnings are necessary at this time. The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening, and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h). The official NHC track forecast is fairly aggressive and lies on the higher side of the guidance, generally between the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday and continue strengthening through early next week. By the end of the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 12.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X 5( 5) 52(57) 17(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 47(52) 4(56) X(56) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) X(20) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 24(50) X(50) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 60(62) 9(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 9(38) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 11(43) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART