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Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 201435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 120.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

 Crews are making good progress on the fire. Improving containment lines and mopping

Fire restrictions took effect for some federal and state lands in western Nevada. It was forbidden to build, maintain, attend, or use a fire, campfire or stove fire. Some other prohibited activities included smoking, welding, and using explosives, fireworks and tracer rounds. Some of the affected state and federal lands were in Churchill, Lyon, Storey, and Washoe counties. KOLO 8 News (Reno, Nev.), June 29, 2022

New fire restrictions took effect in several Utah counties, prohibiting campfires and open fires, fireworks and other potential dangerous activities. Such restrictions apply on all unincorporated county, state and federally administered public lands in Juab, Millard, Wayne, Piute, Sevier, Sanpete, Box Elder, Weber, Cache, Rich, Morgan, Davis, Salt Lake, Tooele, Utah, Washington, Kane, Garfield, Iron and Beaver counties. Daily Herald (Provo, Utah), July 18, 2022

Heat and drought were reducing hay production in Oklahoma, causing prices to rise. Pastures are crisp, so livestock were being fed hay. KHTT-FM (Muskogee, Okla.), July 19, 2022

 On July 14th, a lightning caused fire was observed as a storm passed over the area. Fire crews responded to the area, but were forced to seek cover in safe locations as lightning delayed initial attack activities. Initial size up estimated the fire at less than one acre. Lightning considerations and fire fighter safety from snags within the Wallow Fire scar are taken into account during suppression tactics decisions, as this fire location is in a rugged and remote area not easily accessible by

Dry conditions persisted in Utah, despite some welcome moisture from monsoon rainfall, leading authorities to opt for restrictions. Color Country, Central Utah and Northern Utah Interagency fire managers enacted new fire restrictions throughout almost all unincorporated county, state and federally managed land across 20 of the state's 29 counties. The restrictions, which took effect on July 18, prohibit all campfires and open fires outside of agency-approved and -maintained campgrounds and home sites. The restrictions also apply to land administered by the Bureau of Land Management in Wasatch and Summit counties. The exceptions are Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Manti La-Sal national forests. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), July 19, 2022

At approximately 1:00pm 7/16/2022 Texas A&M Forest Service responded to a request for assistance on a grass and brush fire in Limestone County. Two Texas A&M Forest Service dozers and one engine as well as Buffalo, Marquez, Flynn, Jewett, Dew, Teague, Shilo, West Lake Limestone, East Lake Limestone, and Grosebeck Fire Departments took action. Oil field infrastructure throughout the area complicated tactics, but forward progression of the fire was eventually stopped later that evening. The fire was mapped at 363 acres and is now in 100% containment. A TIFMAS strike team out of Sweetwater and a TAMFS tractor plow out of Palestine continue to monitor the fire throughout the rest of the

Residents of Dallas were asked to conserve water during the heat wave and due to the lack of measurable rain. The dry spell increased demand on the water system as daily consumption rose to more than 600 million gallons per day, compared to the average consumption of about 380 million gallons daily. The number of water main breaks has also nearly tripled to 17 over the past weekend, compared to a normal of no more than six during such a period. WFAA (Dallas, Texas), July 15, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 19 17:55:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 19 17:55:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over southeast lower Michigan into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, though isolated hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Synopsis... A rather strong mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Great Lakes into parts of eastern Ontario and Quebec on Wednesday. An associated surface low is forecast to deepen slightly as it moves from near Lake Superior east-northeastward to near the Ontario/Quebec border by the end of the period. A cold front attendant to the surface low will move through parts of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will persist over the southwest CONUS. ...Southeast Lower MI into the OH Valley... Strong diurnal heating of a moist environment is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon, along and ahead of the cold front. Initial development may occur over eastern lower MI by mid afternoon, in closer proximity to the mid/upper-level trough, with storms expected to develop southwestward across the OH Valley by late afternoon. Updraft intensity may initially be limited by a dry midlevel environment, but MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will eventually support robust storm development. Moderate midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt (greater with northward extent), sufficient to sustain organized storm structures during the afternoon/evening. A couple of supercells will be possible, with a tendency toward organized cluster development with time. Modestly enhanced low-level shear will support the potential for a couple tornadoes, especially if any supercells can be sustained into the early evening. Otherwise, damaging-wind gusts are expected to be the primary hazard, with some potential for isolated hail given the magnitude of the instability (despite rather warm midlevel temperatures). Some severe threat may reach as far east as western PA and as far south as the mid-MS and lower OH Valley before storms weaken Wednesday night. ...North Dakota... Diurnal heating and sufficient residual low-level moisture will support weak-to-moderate destabilization within a post-frontal regime across parts of ND. Limited large-scale ascent results in uncertainty regarding storm coverage, but steep low-level lapse rates would support an isolated severe gust risk with any sustained convection. ...Southern OK/North TX... Very strong heating and increasing PW may result in isolated high-based thunderstorm development across southern OK and north TX late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, in the vicinity of a remnant surface boundary. Inverted-v profiles may support an isolated downburst threat with this convection. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM... Convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain of northern NM/southeast CO Wednesday afternoon. Slightly enhanced midlevel flow along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge may support some weakly organized cells/clusters capable of isolated severe gusts, and perhaps marginal hail at higher elevations. ..Dean.. 07/19/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a
few hundred miles offshore of Central America and southern Mexico.
Some gradual development is possible late this week or this weekend
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous forecast for greater details. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022/ ...Synopsis... A prominent ridge over the southwestern US is forecast to remain quasistationary as a compact upper low traverses its northern flank. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will move east, but linger over the central Rockies and western Great Basin through the first part of the day. At the surface, a weak cold front will move slowly south, supporting a few thunderstorms over the southern High Plains. Extreme heat is forecast beneath the ridge across the Southern Plains, aiding in the development of locally elevated fire weather concerns. ...Central High Plains... In the wake of a dry frontal passage early this morning, downslope northwesterly winds are forecast over much of eastern WY and western NE. Dry west/northwest winds of 15-20 mph will be possible through the first half of the day along with surface RH below 25%. With plentiful critical fuels in place, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will be possible through the afternoon and early evening. Winds should weaken later in the afternoon through sunset ending the fire weather threat this evening. ...Southern High Plains... Extreme heat is forecast beneath the stagnant mid-level anticyclone centered over the southwestern US. While surface winds will likely be light owing to the high pressure, surface temperatures in excess of 110F are forecast through the afternoon. The very warm airmass will favor significant mixing and low afternoon relative humidity values below 20%. With fuels near record dryness, the very hot, dry and unstable conditions will likely support locally elevated fire weather concerns across much of TX, OK and western KS. Isolated high-based thunderstorms may also be possible across the TX Panhandle late this evening. While dry thunder chances appear modest given high PWATs, a few lightning strikes within dry fuels appear possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts and large hail are expected over portions of the Upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes regions. ...Synopsis... A compact upper wave is evident in mid-morning water vapor imagery translating eastward across North Dakota. This feature will continue east into the Great Lakes region through 12 UTC Wednesday, and will be the focus for severe weather potential for today. A weakening upper disturbance over the eastern U.S. will continue to lift northeast into the western Atlantic, but residual influences from this wave will support lower severe probabilities across the Northeast and Southeast states this afternoon. Across the Southwest, hot and dry conditions prevail under a Four Corners ridge, though widespread monsoonal moisture will continue to support scattered thunderstorm chances with the potential for damaging downbursts for a couple of regions. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Surface analysis reveals a deepening surface low across the northern Red River Valley of the North with a cold front advancing east across the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of this front, temperatures are warming into the low 80s with widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. While this air mass is undergoing some destabilization, strong capping sampled in the 12 UTC ABR and MPX soundings will likely limit the potential for open warm sector convection. Thunderstorm development is more likely along the diffuse warm frontal zone that is currently draped across northern MN into western WI and where capping diminishes with eastward extent (per the 12 UTC INL and APX soundings). Evidence of strong lift is already evident across northern MN in satellite imagery with thunderstorm initiation likely by late afternoon as lingering inhibition is minimized. Deep-layer flow largely orthogonal to the boundary combined with strong ascent should support semi-discrete storm modes posing primarily a severe hail/wind risk. Storms along the front will continue eastward towards northern lower MI and the U.P. of MI overnight. While convection may become elevated due to diurnal cooling, forecast soundings show adequate MUCAPE and effective shear to maintain a hail, and perhaps damaging wind, threat. ...Northeast... Morning soundings across the region show poor mid-level lapse rates with evidence of low/mid-level stability evident in visible satellite imagery. However, upstream soundings from southeast Canada reveal much colder temperatures aloft, which should advect east through the day as the upper-level low shifts east/northeast. These cooling temperatures, combined with diurnal insolation and a nearly uni-directional wind profile featuring 30-40 knot winds will support a conditionally favorable environment for organized severe storms. While this favorable environment is noted, storm coverage remains uncertain. Thunderstorm development is possible by mid/late afternoon as a weak surface trough, currently just northwest of the international border, moves across the region. However, latest guidance continues to show sparse storm coverage, likely owing to the weak forcing for ascent. Recent downward convective trends of ongoing storms north of ME also limits confidence in storm coverage. Consequently, the potential for a more widespread severe threat appears too limited for a categorical upgrade. ...Southeast... The southern extension of the East Coast upper trough will continue to drift east towards the Atlantic Coast through the day. This will continue to provide lift across far eastern AL, GA, and the Carolinas over an air mass that is currently destabilizing under partly cloudy skies (with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s with rich low-level moisture). The combination of adequate buoyancy, sufficient lift, and modest upper-level flow should support a few strong to severe storms with a predominantly damaging wind risk (though sporadic severe hail is possible with the stronger updrafts). ...Southern High Plains... A deep, dry boundary layer are noted across the southern High Plains on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume. By late afternoon, adequate mid-level moisture should support sufficient buoyancy for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. With inverted-V signatures noted in forecast soundings and a modest convective signal in most CAM guidance, the potential for strong to severe downburst winds appears sufficient to introduce wind probabilities. ...Southeast Arizona... A weak surface low over southern AZ is noted in morning surface obs. This feature should maintain weak south to southwesterly flow across southeast AZ through the day under modest easterly flow aloft. This should support 20-30 knots of 0-6 km shear through the day, which will aid in storm organization as convection develops off the terrain of the Mongolon Rim and western Gila region this afternoon. Similar to the southern High Plains, inverted-V low-level profiles are noted in forecast soundings, which, when combined with the slightly sheared environment, should support a few stronger storms with severe wind potential. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2022 Read more

 The fire is burning in rugged terrain near Deer Lake Canyon, a steep canyon that runs into Chevelon Canyon. Due to the inaccessibility of the current fire location, firefighters are using an indirect strategy utilizing existing roads and favorable terrain to support a strategy of full suppression. Tactical firing operations will continue as weather conditions allow. Drones may also be utilized in these

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191443 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt, respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent a blend of the classifications. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory and close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

A Fire Prevention Order was put in place on July 13th restrict public entry, recreation and unnecessary traffic near the fire.  See full Order and News Release in Closures section.   Settlement Canyon is open to Camp Wapiti.  A pre-evacuation order remains in place for Ophir Canyon Residents. The fire is located 5 miles south of Tooele and 1 mile east of Stockton, Utah.   It is burning east of the Salt Lake Valley, 12 miles southwest of Herriman, and 13 miles northwest of Eagle Mountain. It is burning in steep, rugged terrain through timber, brush, tall grass, and a mix of conifer and juniper. The fire started on the afternoon of July 9, 2022, and was determined to be human-caused. The following were damaged: Stockton water treatment plant which included propane tanks, solar panels, and generator, multiple flatbed trailers, sheds, and two con-ex boxes. Great Basin Team 5 will turn the Jacob City Fire over to a local Type 4 team at 6 pm today. 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 14:39:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT