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Nebraska has been in drought for all of 2022, while a flash drought developed in Missouri in recent weeks. Nebraska cow-calf producers were employing various drought management practices, such as watching grazing levels closely to avoid overgrazing, which will harm pasture grass the following year. Rotating livestock among pastures during drought is also important. With less forage available, and tight hay supplies, many southwest Nebraska producers were considering salvaging dryland corn or milo for forage because these crops will not likely make grain. Producers need to check nitrate levels to make sure the forage is safe to feed to cattle. DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), July 25, 2022

An emergency water ban was in effect for Pembroke due to low well levels, low water pressure and unsafe conditions as conditions in Massachusetts ranged from abnormally dry to severe drought. Residents were told to immediately stop using unnecessary water that would be needed in the event of an emergency. Tap water was discolored. "There is a strain on the reserve levels in the tanks and it is seriously impacting the town’s ability to provide water and the pressure required to drive it now and in the event of an emergency," according to town officials. WCVB-TV ABC 5 Boston (Mass.), July 25, 2022

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0503 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 503 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 251745Z - 260200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will further develop and intensify initially near/just of the mountains, and subsequently spread eastward toward the I-95 corridor through late afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Trenton NJ to 40 miles west of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 502... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Recent satellite-derived wind
data also indicates the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression over the next day or so. This low pressure area is
forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted with a small area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Some slight additional development with this
system is possible over the next day or two before it is forecast to
interact and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system located to
its east later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI EASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the mid-Atlantic region west to portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. A few damaging wind gusts locally will be the primary severe hazard. ...Synopsis... South of a pair of central and eastern Canada upper lows, moderate cyclonic flow will prevail Tuesday from the north-central U.S. eastward across the Northeast. Farther south, weak flow aloft will prevail. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will remain largely in place from the Mid-Atlantic region westward to the central High Plains through the period. ...Mid Mississippi Valley region eastward to the Virginia and North Carolina Coastal area... A nearly stationary surface front is forecast to remain in place from Virginia to Missouri on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary at the start of the period, from the Mid-Mississippi to Mid-Ohio Valleys, where a stronger gust or two cannot be ruled out. During the day, heating/destabilization along the boundary in areas less affected by ongoing precipitation/cloud cover will yield an expansion in convective coverage, with storms eventually developing/spreading eastward with time to cover much of the MRGL risk area. With moderate/roughly unidirectional westerly flow aloft progged atop the front, a few stronger wind gusts appear likely -- particularly if storms can evolve locally into an eastward-moving cluster or two. At this time, confidence is too low to narrow down an area of possibly greater severe potential/coverage, so will maintain broad MRGL risk from southeastern Missouri eastward to coastal Virginia and North Carolina. ..Goss.. 07/25/2022 Read more

MD 1590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Areas affected...North Carolina into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251716Z - 251915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may intensify and support isolated damaging winds through the afternoon hours across western to central North Carolina and southern Virginia. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A broad cluster of thunderstorms has developed within the southern Appalachians and along a lee trough axis across western VA/NV over the past couple of hours. This activity has largely remained disorganized, likely due to weak flow observed in the KFCX, KMRX, and KRAX VWPs. However, increasing cloud-top heights and cooling cloud-top temperatures in a few cells hint at gradual intensification over the past 30-60 minutes. This trend will continue through the afternoon as warming temperatures, coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, boosts MLCAPE values to near 2000-2500 J/kg with minimal inhibition. A few strong to severe storms are possible and may exhibit periods of semi-organized outflow. However, deep-layer flow is expected to remain meager across the region as the synoptic mid-level wave passes well to the north. This will limit the potential for widespread organized severe weather and likely mitigates the need for a watch, though isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible through the afternoon. ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 35868317 36658153 37188073 37368009 37247925 36947824 36377821 35567854 35117955 35118119 35158233 35388312 35868317 Read more

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0502 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 502 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA RI CW 251705Z - 260000Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Maine New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southern New York Far Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon through early evening along/ahead of a cold front. This scenario is supported by moderately strong winds through a deep layer a moist/moderately unstable air mass, although some lingering cloud cover may temper destabilization somewhat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Bridgeport CT to 85 miles north northeast of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1589 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Areas affected...Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 251702Z - 251900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage from central Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey through the afternoon as a cold front approaches the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorms will primarily pose a damaging wind threat, and will likely require a watch. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery reveals several convective cells developing along the WV/VA/MD border ahead of an approaching cold front and along a weak lee trough axis. Increasing lightning counts and cloud top heights have been noted with some of the deeper convection over the past 20 minutes, indicative of gradual intensification. These storms are forecast to migrate east into central/northern VA during the 17-19 UTC period, and will likely undergo further organization/intensification as they encounter an air mass featuring seasonally rich low-level moisture (which is supporting upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and around 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear (as estimated from recent ACARs soundings from the Washington D.C. area and recent KLWX and KDIX VWP obs). Furthermore, temperatures rising into the low 90s will support steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and winds near the top of the boundary layer are forecast to increase to 25-35 mph by mid/late afternoon, both of which should foster the potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. A watch will likely be needed in the next 30-90 minutes as thunderstorm coverage and intensity slowly increase. ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37837661 37237799 37377920 37757965 38367938 39077873 39667761 40127593 40067499 39577446 38397556 37837661 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England this afternoon through early evening. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic States... The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England late this morning and midday. Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95 general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally damaging wind gusts will be the most common severe risk (almost exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level shear/SRH will be stronger. ...Middle Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... A few strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur this afternoon within a moist/unstable environment near the front across southern Missouri, but will not adjust/reintroduce severe probabilities at this time given lingering forecast uncertainties and relatively low/isolated perceived severe potential overall. A somewhat higher probability/coverage of storms is expected tonight and farther north from northeast Kansas across northern Missouri into western/south-central Illinois. This will be as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies and warm advection/isentropic ascent increases coincident with the elevated frontal surface. A few organized and potentially severe storms may occur, particularly early in the convective cycle before a more front-parallel linear configuration evolves. That said, potential upscale growth into an MCS could eventually occur. ...Central/northern High Plains... A conditional and/or fairly localized severe potential (hail/wind) is evident in this region this afternoon into this evening, with a deeply mixed diurnal boundary layer, steep low/middle-level lapse rates, and pockets of favorable/residual moisture all expected to support a plume of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from parts of western South Dakota into western Nebraska. Have introduced low severe probabilities for parts of this region where a few severe storms appear a bit more probable. Any convection that does develop will be in an environment of modest-magnitude but strongly veering low-level winds with height, leading to long hodographs and around 40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/25/2022 Read more

 Fire is located 40 miles northwest of Wells, NV. Wildcat Fire is burning in brush and grass. Fire behavior has moderated and observed behavior is minimal with creeping and smoldering. Crews are continuing with mop up and suppression

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will remain in place across the northern CONUS, while a compact shortwave trough crosses the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As moderate midlevel flow accompanying the shortwave trough overspreads a diurnally deepening boundary layer over southern WY, a corridor of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds will be possible amid 10-15 percent RH. However, recent light to moderate rainfall over the area and only marginally elevated conditions cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Farther south over parts of the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface winds will develop in response to a weak surface low near the OK Panhandle. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20-25 percent minimum RH, could result in locally elevated conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. With that said, these conditions look too marginal/spotty for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Mountain Fire was started by lightning on Wednesday July 20, 2022, near the top of Sitgreaves Mountain, on the Wiliams Ranger District.  Firefighters were on scene on Thursday July 21, but found numerous hazards around the fire including lightning, steep slopes, numerous downed logs covering the ground in many areas, and numerous standing dead trees.  After much conversation, a decision was made to hold off on aggressive attack of the fire at that time, but instead to wait and see what the monsoon storms in the area would do to the fire.  Since that day, the fire has grown slowly, had several rain showers on it, and is consuming dead and downed fuel on the ground.  Firefighters from the Kaibab National Forest are keeping a close eye on this fire every day, monitoring and mapping fire spread, and watching the weather which includes increased chances of rain in the last full week of

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 24 18:00:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southeastern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are starting to show signs of organization
associated with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
south off the coast of southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression by the middle part of this week.
This system is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday from portions of New England to the Mid-Atlantic region. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. Isolated severe storms will also be possible over portions of the northern and central High Plains vicinity. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft will prevail over the southern half of the U.S. Monday, while a belt of enhanced/cyclonic flow resides over the northern third of the country south of a pair of Canadian upper cyclones. At the surface, an arcing front will shift eastward across the Northeast, southward across the Ohio Valley and central U.S., and then nearly stationary/backed into the High Plains through the period. ...New England to the Mid-Atlantic region, and westward into the Mid South... As a cold front advances eastward into/across New England and southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the day Monday, thunderstorms -- likely ongoing locally at the start of the period -- are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through late morning/early afternoon. The increase -- fueled by a moist/destabilizing pre-frontal environment -- will be aided by a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading across the area in tandem with short-wave troughing sweeping across the St. Lawrence Valley through the day. With a somewhat-more-southerly component to the low-level flow, veering and increasing with height to southwesterly, shear will favor organized storms. While bands of convection should become the primary storm mode, updraft rotation in stronger cells may support risk for a tornado. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary severe risk, along with some hail potential. Storms will spread eastward with time in tandem with the cold-frontal advance, gradually moving offshore but lingering longest over southeastern New England and the mid-Atlantic region. Farther west along the front, into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee, severe risk should remain more limited, due to weaker flow aloft. Still, storms developing along the front will likely be accompanied by local risk for damaging wind gusts and/or hail. ...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will remain across the north-central U.S. Monday, on the southern fringe of a pair of central Canada lows. As weak disturbances move southeastward across the northern and central Plains vicinity, a frontal wave is forecast to be maintained over the Nebraska Panhandle vicinity, along front progged to remain draped from northwest to southeast from the northern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization near and ahead of this front/low, along with focused ascent aided by the passage of the aforementioned disturbances aloft will likely prove sufficient for isolated afternoon storm development. With 25 to 35 kt west-northwesterly flow aloft atop low-level southeasterlies near and just east of the front, a few stronger storms may organize, and possibly grow upscale into a small cluster. Local risk for a couple of damaging wind gusts and/or hail warrants maintenance of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 07/24/2022 Read more

MD 1575 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio to southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241710Z - 241915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon hours and will pose a threat for strong to severe winds. A watch is likely within the next hour. DISCUSSION...A field of growing cumulus is noted from northeast OH into northwest PA with a few deeper convective towers becoming evident, one of which has rapidly intensified within the past 20 minutes. In the absence of stronger surface/low-level forcing, this activity is likely being fostered by broad ascent ahead of a mid-level perturbation across the Great Lakes, aided by rapidly decreasing MLCIN as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s (based on a modified 15 UTC BUF sounding). While thunderstorm coverage in the near-term is somewhat uncertain given the weak/broad forcing for ascent, continued destabilization through the day should support the maintenance of the deepening convection. Strong winds (upwards of 40-50 knots) are noted within the lowest 3 km of regional soundings and VWP observations, which suggests that any developing storm will pose a strong to severe wind risk. 0-6 km bulk shear values near 35-40 knots will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells capable of large hail. A watch will likely be needed within the hour to address this concern as addition thunderstorms mature through the early afternoon. ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41298220 41928080 42707883 42897742 42567674 41897643 41327665 40967736 40797928 40788068 40898179 41048215 41298220 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the lower Great Lakes vicinity into St. Lawrence Valley by late this afternoon, with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. ...Lower Great Lakes and vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. This will be influenced by an eastward-ejecting shortwave trough over Michigan/Upper Great Lakes, with corresponding enhancements to forcing for ascent and an increase in deep-layer wind profiles. Modest low/middle-level lapse rates will offset favorable low-level moisture enough to keep MLCAPE maximized at 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow corridor east of the Lower Great Lakes, but with 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes and 150-300 m2/s2 effective SRH in support of mixed supercell/multicell modes and possible some bowing segments. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but some hail and/or a tornado risk may also exist as well. Farther southwest, stronger heating (especially outside of a residual cluster/cloud debris across northeast Illinois into northern Indiana) and higher moisture content will also support severe storms within a somewhat weaker deep-layer shear environment across Illinois/Indiana and vicinity. Multicell clusters should be the most prevalent severe mode with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Central/northern Rockies and adjoining High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, along a lengthy expanse of the interface between the eastern Rockies front and the High Plains. Activity should move roughly eastward onto the Plains, with more longevity/persistence likely in middle and southern segments of the outlook area with the main severe concern being isolated severe wind gusts. Diurnal heating will steepen lower/middle-tropospheric lapse rates in the presence of sufficient/residual low-level moisture advecting into the region in the post-frontal boundary layer. This should lead to a well-mixed low-level thermodynamic profile, beneath minimal MLCINH, with a plume of 500-1000 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE that generally narrows northward. Though low-level moisture and theta-e should be somewhat lower on the northwest end, large-scale ascent ahead of the northern Rockies perturbation should overlie surface heating to contribute to very steep low/middle-level lapse rates. Continued easterly flow component north of the front/low should contribute to both favorable storm-relative boundary-layer winds for activity moving off the higher terrain, and strong veering of flow with height. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of convection may aggregate cold pools for a few hours in support of gust potential. Depending on subsequent mesoscale trends and convective guidance, some subset of this area may gain enough spatial certainty to warrant greater probabilities. ...Arizona... A cluster of storms continues to generally dissipate and move westward across the southern Arizona desert this morning. A relatively moist air mass persists across southeast Arizona in its wake where post-MCS insolation will be strong. Widely scattered storms should redevelop later this afternoon with slow westward movement off the mountains/higher terrain. The hot/well-mixed boundary layer could support some strong/potentially severe-caliber wind gusts later this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/24/2022 Read more