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A dairy farmer with a nearly dry well was aided by the Auburn Fire Department which allowed him to fill his tanks at the station. Due to drought, the water table and head pressure of his dug well had fallen to low to provide water for his cows. Since the start of 2021, thirty-two dry wells have been reported, but none of the dry wells were in Androscoggin County. Lewiston Sun Journal (Maine), July 26, 2022

Many crops in Arkansas needed water at the same time. Corn is in the reproductive stage; rice fields need to be flooded; and cotton and soybeans need irrigation, but there is only so much water and so much area that can be irrigated at a time. The upper 75% of the Delta has not received measurable rain since May 25 to June 4. In a normal season, ten days might be needed to get the initial flooding going in a rice field. The dry conditions extend that time to 14 to 21 days this year to get the field flooded. Soybeans need water, but irrigating small plants can drown them as they cannot withstand flooding, but if a farmer did take the chance and irrigate, some ungerminated seeds would have a chance to grow. Irrigation pumps run on diesel, which is expensive at the present and even double what they were in 2021. Comparison to the 1980 drought: “I hear guys talking about 1980,” according to extension soybean agronomist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. 1980 had 15 straight, 100-degree-plus days at Little Rock — 10 of which were at or above 105 degrees — and 42 100-degree days for the year. Stuttgart Daily Leader (Ark.), July 15, 2022

The lack of rain in mid-Missouri means that grass is growing less, so fewer homeowners want their lawns mowed. Lawn care companies that might have mowed nearly 200 yards per week might be mowing less than 75 yards. When fewer lawns need mowing, they do landscaping and other odd jobs to keep busy. ABC 17 News (Columbia, Mo.), July 22, 2022

New Jersey residents and businesses were asked to conserve water because rainfall has been below normal, and reservoirs were dropping rapidly in the past month. While most reservoirs were at or near normal for this point in the summer, some were much lower, such as the Oradell Reservoir system, which fell from full in mid-June to just over 70% in mid-July. The North Jersey District Supply Water Commission, which operates the Wanaque Reservoir, observed water levels fall from nearly full in June to just over 80% in July. The Round Valley-Spruce Run reservoirs in western New Jersey fell below 70%, compared to about 90% full typically at this time of year. NorthJersey.com (Hackensack, New Jersey), July 26, 2022

Drought has nearly dried up Lake Wilson, which has been dropping all summer, was nearly six feet low. Hundreds of fish have perished, and city workers will take care of the dead fish. Most of Wilson’s water comes from Wiggins Mill, which is fed by Buckhorn Reservoir via Contentnea Creek. The city posted, "The drought has affected the lake level but not in a serious way. Buckhorn is only 1.5 feet below normal levels. However, if the drought continues, the city could be forced to restrict lake use." WRAL-TV CBS 5 Raleigh (N.C.), July 26, 2022

The remains of a third person were discovered in Lake Mead on July 25, for the third body in three months as drought continues to take the water level lower. Two other sets of human remains were found in early May. USA Today (McLean, Va.), July 26, 2022

The city of Wichita Falls was urging residents to conserve water in an effort to avoid drought restrictions. The lakes that provide water for the city and nearby communities were near 77% combined capacity. The trigger for Stage I water restrictions is 65%, which could begin in late September, based on current projections. Wichita Falls Times Record News (Texas), July 26, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 26 17:52:01 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico.

South of Baja California peninsula:
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized since this morning.
Additional development of this system is possible during the next
day or so while it remains near stationary, and a tropical
depression could form during this time. After that, interaction
with Tropical Storm Frank to the east of this system is expected to
prevent further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Frank are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Frank are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MD 1593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into central Virginia/North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261732Z - 261930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to gradually intensify through the afternoon hours and may pose a damaging wind threat. A watch is not expected given the weak kinematic environment. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, new thunderstorm development and/or intensification of ongoing convection has been noted over the KY/TN border along an outflow boundary from a swath of early-morning elevated thunderstorms/stratiform rain. To the east across NC, low-level parcels are quickly reaching their convective temperatures as surface temps warm into the upper 80s and low 90s, fostering scattered, poorly-organized thunderstorm development. Convection in both regions have exhibited signs of steady intensification as destabilization continues. Recent mesoanalysis estimates suggest MLCAPE has increased to nearly 2000-2500 J/kg across the region, and the rapid onset of convective initiation in the absence of strong low-level forcing hints at minimal inhibition. The general expectation is that the recent intensification trend will continue through the afternoon hours across the southern Appalachians and VA/NC. ACARs soundings and VWP observations over the past couple of hours have sampled modest zonal winds throughout the column, which is supporting meager deep-layer shear (on the order of 20 knots by most estimates). This limiting factor will modulate the degree of storm organization and the overall severe risk. However, the broken line of storms developing over the southern Appalachians may propagate eastward with a semi-cohesive outflow capable of sporadic damaging winds given the mean wind vector orthogonal to the developing line. More isolated to scattered cells/multicells ahead of this line may also see periodic intensification given the favorable thermodynamic environment, and may briefly pose a damaging wind threat. Regardless, the severe threat is expected to remain sufficiently low to negate the need for a watch. ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36538352 37458067 37797894 37697708 37147678 36327687 35327772 35017971 35038149 35368340 36068406 36538352 Read more

The fire received a half an inch of rain over the last 24 hours and remains in monitor and patrol status. One engine continues to patrol the fire line to ensure the line continues to hold and there is no interior smoke. The fire is still 80% contained at this time. The lightning-caused fire started within the Big Sandy Wash, south/southeast of of Wikieup, Saturday evening, July 16, 2022, after a lightning burst in Mohave

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday from parts of Missouri and Arkansas eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Mid Atlantic, with damaging wind gusts and isolated hail possible. Isolated severe storms over the central High Plains may produce severe hail and damaging gusts during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward into more of western Ontario on Wednesday. As it does, several shortwave troughs will rotate through its base, moving over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The surface pattern early Wednesday morning will feature a stationary front extended from the central Plains eastward across the Mid MS Valley and OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, a surface low associated with the mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered over northern Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward into the central Plains. ...Ozark Plateau to the Mid Atlantic... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm-air advection regime over the Lower/Middle OH Valley, to the north of the stationary boundary mentioned in the synopsis. This morning activity will likely diminish during the morning hours, coincident with weakening low-level flow. Outflow associated with these storms could augment the stationary boundary, with this boundary then acting as an effective cold front as it moves eastward into the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated during the afternoon, both along the outflow mentioned above as well as in the vicinity of the stationary boundary farther west into the Ozark Plateau and Mid MS Valley. The airmass across the entire region will be moist, buoyant, and moderately sheared. The stronger flow aloft will likely be displaced north of the boundary and associated thunderstorm development. Even so, there should be enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear for a few stronger storms. A multicellular mode is favored, but some bowing line segments capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly in the Mid MS Valley. ...Central High Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the NE Panhandle early Wednesday morning, supported by warm-air advection and steep mid-level lapse rates. Potential exists for some organization of these storms, which could result in an early to mid morning severe threat from the NE Panhandle into central NE. Probability of this scenario is low, but the outlook area was expanded slightly eastward to account for this possibility. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon as low-level moisture advection, diurnal heating, and an approaching cold front combine to create a favorable environment for late-afternoon storm initiation. Northwesterly flow aloft atop low-level southeasterly flow will result in moderate vertical shear, and the potential for a supercell or two. Large hail and strong wind gusts are the main severe threat, but a brief tornado is also possible. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND OZARKS TO NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible from northeast Colorado to southern Minnesota later this afternoon/evening, and isolated damaging winds will be possible this afternoon from southern Missouri eastward to parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest this afternoon/evening... A cold front will move south-southeastward across these regions through evening while being influenced by a moderately strong cyclonic belt of westerlies. Further thunderstorm development is expected especially into late afternoon/evening near the front across the Upper Midwest including southern Minnesota, and along/north of the front across the central High Plains including parts of Nebraska/Kansas and northeast Colorado. Moderate buoyancy and largely straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt will support the development of a few supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and/or severe-caliber wind gusts. The severe risk is expected to remain relatively isolated/marginal overall, but a somewhat higher concentration/probability for severe storms may exist across parts of Nebraska. Observational/short-term guidance trends will be reevaluated into mid-afternoon for a potential Slight Risk upgrade. ...Southern Missouri to Virginia/North Carolina this afternoon... Little if any changes appear to be warranted for this severe-weather scenario. A surface front will remain quasi-stationary from southern Kansas eastward across southern Missouri into Kentucky/West Virginia/Virginia, with clouds/precipitation remaining persistent in areas near/north of the front. South of the front and ongoing precipitation, moderate to locally strong buoyancy and a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates will support some potential for downburst-related isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/26/2022 Read more

Discovered on July 18, 2022, the lightning-caused Avalanche Fire is burning in steep and rugged terrain high above Cedar Grove in Kings Canyon National Park. Located in designed wilderness, about 1-mile north of Avalanche Peak. There is no threat to life, property, trails, or infrastructure at this time. However, smoke may be visible from certain spots along Kings Canyon Road (CA Hwy 180 on some maps) when looking south near Roads End or from Zumwalt Meadow. The fire is in a steep drainage inaccessible to firefighting personnel, Kings Canyon has cliffs that rise over a mile from the valley floor, firefighters are not on the ground considering the low growth potential and that there are no current threats to life or property. There are several natural rock features surrounding the fire. Currently the fire is being monitored by air. If the fire moves into less steep terrain, ground firefighting personnel may be inserted to monitor or check fire spread. Therefore, the parks’ are...

Tuesday, July 19, 2022, is the last day this Inciweb page will be updated with information for the Middle Tanana Complex. For the latest information about this complex, please visit the Alaska Wildland Fire Information Webpage at https://akfireinfo.com/tag/middle-tanana-complex/ The Middle Tanana Complex includes nine fires: Yukon Creek (#296), Marshall Mountain (#420), Central Creek (#437), Central Creek Airstrip (#295), Porcupine Creek (#375), South Fork (#427), Gold Hub (#455), California Creek (#472), and Gilles Creek

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added for portions of northern California into southwest Oregon. Latest objective analysis showed a small mid-level impulse traversing the California coastline while moving northward. Mainly showers have accompanied this impulse in central California, though a couple of lightning flashes were also noted. This impulse is expected to continue moving northward through the day and approach a plume of marginal buoyancy currently off of the southwest Oregon coastline. The approach of this impulse, in tandem with diurnal heating and terrain-induced lift may support the development of a dry thunderstorm or two across far northern parts of the Sacramento Valley into the southern Cascades (especially the windward side). While confidence in 10+ percent coverage remains quite low, the very high receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread suggests that low-probability but high-impact wildfire-start potential exists this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight changes made to the Elevated highlights in the southern Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected over parts of northwest OK this afternoon, as 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) develop in response to a weak surface low over the area. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20 percent minimum RH and highly receptive fuels warrant the Elevated highlights -- especially given ongoing fires over the area. Over the Intermountain West/Northern Great Basin, a belt of moderate northwesterly midlevel flow and hot/dry boundary-layer conditions could support spotty elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. This will especially be the case from southeast OR eastward across southern ID into southwest WY. However, these conditions look too localized/marginal for highlights. In addition, an isolated high-based thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along the Cascades from far north-central CA into south-central OR. If this activity can develop, an isolated lightning-induced ignition would be possible owing to very dry fuels across the area. With that said, confidence in the development of any more than a storm or two is too low for dry thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

On July 18, 2022, a wildfire started in the 5200 block of Moore Lane near Possum Kingdom Lake in Palo Pinto County line. Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to assist at approximately 1:oo pm. The Southern Area Type-1 Blue Team assumed command of the fire on July 20, 2022 and is worked with multiple resources, including the Texas A&M Forest Service and numerous local fire departments, to contain the fire. Initial response to the fire saw heavy equipment and fire engines working alongside multiple aviation resources making retardant and water drops onto the

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 261451 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Satellite imagery this morning depicts a sheared bursting pattern associated with the tropical cyclone. An overnight convective burst obscured the low-level circulation center, but first-light visible imagery now shows the vortex mostly exposed east of the colder convective cloud tops. This structure can also be seen from the last couple SSMIS microwave passes near the center and is characteristic of environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) diagnosed between 15-20 knots from the northeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35-kt and T2.0/30-kt respectively, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was at T2.5/35-kt. The initial intensity has been raised to 35-kt this advisory, upgrading the tropical depression to tropical storm Frank. Northeasterly VWS between 15-20 kt is expected to continue over the next 48 hours, and will likely limit significant intensification in the short-term as the shear promotes misalignment between the low-level and mid-level centers. The latest intensity forecast only shows slow intensification in the short-term. Afterwards, this shear is expected to decrease, while the storm will remain over warm sea-surface temperatures near 29C through 96 hours. However, the current shear may also help broaden Frank's wind field as convection is favored outside of the radius of maximum wind, as suggested by the latest ECMWF run. These structural changes could limit more robust intensification later in the forecast despite the more favorable environment. For now, the latest NHC forecast still peaks Frank as a category 1 hurricane towards end of the forecast period. This forecast is on the lower end of the intensity guidance envelope, close to the LGEM model, and is somewhat lower than the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN. The tropical storm is moving generally westward at 280/9-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement that this motion and heading will continue as a mid-level ridge extends westward to the north of Frank over the next 2-3 days. Towards the end of the forecast, the ridge overhead will begin to gradually weaken, and will likely allow a larger Frank to begin gaining more latitude. One complicating factor in the track forecast is the possibility of some weak binary interaction with another low-level circulation located to Frank's northwest, where the net interaction may help impart a bit more northerly heading to Frank's track between 72-96 hours. For now, the track forecast continues to favor a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast (GFEX) and is quite close to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 11.6N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 11.9N 104.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 12.2N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 12.6N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 12.9N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 13.6N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 15.0N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 17.5N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Jul 2022 14:46:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Jul 2022 15:22:31 GMT

The Moors Mountain Fire was reported on Saturday, July 16, near Moors Mountain in Gates of the Mountains Wilderness.  The fire was caused by lightning. A total of 98-acres were involved and full containment was achieved on Sunday, July 24. Command of the fire was transferred back to the Helena-Lewis and Clark National Forest, under Type 4 Incident Commander Mike Stanaway, on Monday, July 25. More than 80 personnel worked out of spike camps in the Gates of the Mountain Wilderness, for multiple operational periods, and were supported by helicopter operations to supply the camps and to provide fire suppression. Crews utilized handlines which were tied into natural features, such as rock formations, to minimize the impact on the wilderness