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WW 507 SEVERE TSTM MD VA CW 291730Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Southern and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Initial cluster in central Virginia should pose the primary threat for damaging winds as it spreads east towards the southern Delmarva Peninsula. An additional cluster may form across southwest Virginia and spread towards southeast Virginia as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of Patuxent River MD to 25 miles west of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Grams Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible on Saturday afternoon from parts of Oklahoma and far northeast Texas into Arkansas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive subtropical ridging is forecast to extend across the Southeast and southern Plains early Saturday morning, with another upper ridge centered near the northern CA/NV and covering much of the western CONUS. This dominance of upper ridging will lead to predominantly weak flow aloft across the majority of the CONUS. The only exceptions are early in the period across the Northeast, before the shortwave trough extended over the region moves eastward, and over the northern High Plains/northern Plains during from late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This second area will be coincident with a modest shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces and adjacent northern High Plains/northern Plains. Surface pattern is expected to feature a large ridge centered over the OH Valley, and modest lee troughing across the High Plains. A frontal zone will exist between the more continental air associated with the ridging and moist air mass across much of the southern Plains and Southeast. This frontal zone will be fairly broad, with some more defined portions possible due to potential augmentation via thunderstorm outflow, and is expected to act as the corridor for additional thunderstorms development during the afternoon and evening. Weakly sheared nature of the environment suggests a predominantly multicellular mode with limited updraft strength and duration. Given the very moist character of the air mass (i.e. PW values of 2-2.25"), a few isolated water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts could occur. However, widely spaced character of events and overall marginal nature of the threat merits keeping severe wind probabilities below 5% for this outlook. ..Mosier.. 07/29/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will remain centered over the western CONUS, while a low-amplitude shortwave trough tracks southeastward across the northern Rockies. Beneath the upper ridge, hot/dry conditions will result in widespread 10-15 percent minimum RH east of the Cascades into the northern Rockies. The low RH, coupled with breezy northerly surface winds over southeast OR, southwest ID, and northern NV will promote elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon -- especially owing to highly receptive fuels over the area. In addition, large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough and favorable midlevel moisture/instability will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms over the northern Rockies. As these storms overspread a hot/dry boundary layer and critically dry fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Farther west, upslope flow and adequate instability will also support very isolated high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades in northern CA into southern OR -- where isolated ignitions remain a concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

On Thursday morning, July 21, 2022, Hualapai Tribal Forestry personnel investigated smoke plumes on the East Side of the Hualapai Reservation. Hualapai Wildland Fire Management arrived at the fire incident near Prospect Valley at 11:30 a.m. The incident is ongoing with no estimate of containment at this time.  The Southwest Area Incident Management Team 3 assumed command of the C3 Fire on Monday, July 25 at 6 a.m.  On Friday July 29, 2022 at 0800 the Hualapai Indian Reservation will lift all Fire

MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN MARYLAND/SOUTHERN DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Areas affected...Central/eastern Virginia to eastern Maryland/southern Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291624Z - 291830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase this afternoon initially across Virginia near the Blue Ridge and spread eastward toward/across the Chesapeake bay vicinity. Isolated wind damage may occur with the strongest storms. Trends are being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...Strong heating and ample insolation/boundary layer destabilization are occurring across the southern half of Virginia to the south of a southwest/northeast-oriented effective front from the central Appalachians toward the Delmarva, although buoyancy will be somewhat tempered by warm mid-level temperatures (-4 to -5C at 500mb) and poor mid-level lapse rates. Regardless, thunderstorms will develop and increase through mid-afternoon over the mountains and Blue Ridge vicinity and subsequently spread eastward. Influenced by the upper trough over the Great Lakes, a belt of moderately strong westerlies is noted, particularly with northward extent near/north of the frontal zone. This will support sustained multicells/linear segments as thunderstorms develop, and possibly even some transient supercells across east-central Virginia/eastern Maryland and Chesapeake Bay vicinity. A very moist boundary layer and steepening low-level lapse rates could yield some downbursts capable of isolated wind damage as the most probable severe hazard. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36897666 36587907 37507911 38817740 38597490 37177583 36897666 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VA AND CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Potential for scattered damaging winds from strong to locally severe gusts is greatest across parts of Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay vicinity through early evening. ...VA and Chesapeake Bay vicinity... South of a slow-moving surface cold front, a southwest to northeast-oriented zone of differential boundary-layer heating is apparent from southwest VA to the Chesapeake. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along this corridor through the afternoon. On the fringe of 35-40 kt mid-level westerlies in conjunction with a pronounced buoyancy gradient, a mix of multicell clusters and transient supercell structures are anticipated. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, strong to locally severe gusts producing mainly tree damage should be the primary threat into early evening. ...Southern Appalachians to the Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected along the composite outflow/differential heating corridors south of the quasi-stationary surface front. Isolated strong/damaging downbursts will be possible with water-loaded downdrafts on the fringe of modest mid-level westerlies. ...Red River Valley and TX Panhandle... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon into mid-evening both along the surface cold front near the Red River and in a post-frontal regime over the TX Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will be weak across the region, especially for convection along the front. The latter will be compensated by a deeply mixed thermodynamic profile with hot temperatures south of the front. Isolated strong/damaging downbursts will be possible with water-loaded downdrafts. Farther west, slow-moving cells/clusters may contain a threat of both isolated, marginally severe wind/hail. ...Southern Great Basin... Around the southeast periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over northern CA, modest northeasterly flow of 15-20 kt will be maintained over southern NV. Boundary-layer dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 60s this morning and gradual clearing of clouds will allow strong surface heating this afternoon with MLCAPE increasing to 500-1500 J/kg. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon close to the NV/UT border, and storms will subsequently spread south-southwestward on outflow into southern NV and adjacent areas of southeast CA. Given the modest buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates, isolated severe outflow gusts up to around 70 mph will be possible with multicell clusters. ...Northern MT... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over southeast BC will drift east across southern AB. Though moisture will be limited, deep boundary-layer mixing will occur as surface temperatures warm through the 90s. Weak ascent preceding the upper trough and weak low-level convergence along a surface trough will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon. Though low to mid-level flow will remain weak, deep inverted-v profiles will favor isolated strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph. ...NE Panhandle vicinity... Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the northern periphery of the High Plains moisture plume during the late afternoon/early evening. Adequate veering of the wind profile with height (weak low-level southerlies to modest mid-level northwesterlies) will support a short-duration and very isolated threat for marginally severe hail/wind. ..Grams/Lyons.. 07/29/2022 Read more

 The Long Creek Fire began at about 1245pm on Wednesday, July 27. The fire began due to a spark created by fire equipment. By 4pm the fire had grown to about 150 acres with 0% containment. The fire had a very high potential for growth and was burning in thick brush. There was no threat to structures. Dozers finished constructing line along the fire's perimeter at around 630pm. At that time, the fire was estimated to be 215 acres in size and 50% contained. Engines continued to mop up residual heat along the fire's perimeter until the fire was determined to be 90% contained. Fire crews will return Thursday morning to patrol the fire area and mop up any residual heat along the fire's

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 14:42:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 15:23:41 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 14:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 15:30:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 715 WTPZ43 KNHC 291438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 GOES-17 Proxy-Vis and enhanced IR imagery show that Georgette's cloud pattern has become more symmetric with colder -77C inner core cloud tops. An earlier AMSR2 revealed an eye-like feature in the lower frequency band and a well-developed rain band in the north part of the cyclone. The eye feature, however, was not evident in the infrared presentation. Although the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB haven't changed; the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt in deference to the microwave image. The global models and the statistical intensity guidance indicate that the easterly shear will increase within 24 hours, causing Georgette to weaken slowly. However, due to Georgette's compact size, intensity fluctuations are possible in the short term. The latest GFS run shows that Georgette could hang on a little longer than the NHC forecast indicates, possibly as a post-tropical cyclone. Therefore, adjusting the forecast may be deemed necessary to extend the cyclone's life in subsequent advisories. The official forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity aids. Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be just a bit south of due west or 260/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching east-northeast to west-southwest should steer the small cyclone west to west-southwestward during the next 48 hours. Afterward, a reduction in forward speed along with a turn toward the northeast is expected in response to larger Frank weakening the ridge and disrupting the steering flow while passing to the northeast of Georgette. Although the ECMWF global has been the best performer in the eastern Pacific this season with respect to forecast track, the model continues to initialize poorly the compact TC indicating a significantly weaker system while remaining the left tracker outlier. The GFS, however, now has a more accurate depiction of the cyclone's size and vertical depth and shows a more direct response to Frank's larger wind field. There still is quite a bit of uncertainty in Georgette's future track as evident by the larger than usual guidance spread, particularly after the northeast turn. Consequently, this is a low confidence forecast. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, but has been adjusted to the left beyond that point to agree more with the HCCA and GEFS/EPS ensemble member solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 291437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 16 39(55) X(55) 1(56) 2(58) 2(60) X(60) 15N 125W 50 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 291437 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 In infrared imagery, Frank's appearance has not changed much since the last advisory. While the system shows a large curved convective band that wraps a little more than three-quarters of the way around the center, the central deep convection is a bit ragged, possibly due to dry air entrainment from the northwest. However, recent 37 GHz microwave data shows the cyclone has developed a good low-level structure, with a ring of shallow to moderate convection surrounding a 40 n mi wide developing eye. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Frank will be in an environment of light vertical shear and over sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 36 h, and the inner-core structure seen in the microwave imagery favors a faster rate of strengthening. The one current negative factor is the dry air entrainment that is causing the inner core deep convection to sputter. The intensity forecast assumes strengthening will resume as the deep convection will becomes persistent, and it follows the trend of the intensity guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 90 kt in 36 h. After that time, Frank should move over progressively cooler SSTs, with the system reaching 21C water by 120 h. This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Frank is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Frank is moving along the southwest side of the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico, and it should move generally northwestward during the forecast period toward a developing break in the ridge west of California. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and has changed little since the previous advisory. Thus, the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are expected to come close enough to one another for some interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and Georgette will have little impact on the track or intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 291437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 ...GEORGETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 123.0W ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 123.0 West. Georgette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-southwest to southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the next few of days followed by a turn toward the northeast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the short term due to Georgette's compact size. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GEORGETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 the center of Georgette was located near 15.1, -123.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 291436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 291436 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 15(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 34 77 17(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 115W 50 5 32(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 115W 64 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 51(61) 24(85) X(85) X(85) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 31(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 291436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 ...FRANK CHANGES LITTLE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 113.0W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.0 West. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and a general northwestward motion should then continue through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Saturday night, and Frank is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Frank is expected to weaken on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANK CHANGES LITTLE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 the center of Frank was located near 14.2, -113.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 291436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN