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MD 1597 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271753Z - 272000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are gradually intensifying across the southern Appalachians, and will likely pose at least an isolated damaging wind risk this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...GOES and regional reflectivity imagery has shown a slow percolation of shallow convection across the southern Appalachians and along an east-ward propagating outflow boundary over the past 1-2 hours. Recent data (over the past 10-20 minutes) has shown a gradual uptick in convective intensity, including cooling cloud-top temperatures, rising echo tops, and increasing lightning counts. This is largely being driven by diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer across the southern Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Recent ACARs soundings show this gradual destabilization, and latest MLCAPE estimates have increased to 1500-2000 J/kg. Further destabilization is possible where cloud cover is more broken and temperatures can break out of the upper 80s, which should maintain the recent intensification trend. Regional VWPs, supplemented by forecast soundings, are generally sampling 20-35 knot zonal mid-level winds with modest (around 20 knots) deep-layer shear. Wind (and shear) magnitudes generally increase with northward extent away from the better buoyancy, but there should be sufficient overlap of favorable thermodynamics/kinematics to support loosely organized clusters and perhaps semi-cohesive outflows. In general, the weak kinematic environment will limit the severe weather threat and minimize the potential for a watch, but isolated damaging winds appear probable through the afternoon hours. ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/27/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... JKL... LAT...LON 35827742 35557872 35598053 35288260 35528341 36088351 37888221 38698066 38807810 38257713 37157680 36317682 35827742 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico and on newly-formed Tropical Depression Eight-E,
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts and hail are possible over portions of the Northeast, as well as from the Ozarks eastward across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered over north-central Ontario before drifting slightly southeastward throughout the period. Shortwave troughs will continue to rotate around this cyclone, including one that is expected to progress from the Upper Great Lakes eastward through southern Ontario into the Northeast. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced front will likely extend from a low over northwest TX northeastward into the Mid MS Valley. This front then transitions to a more traditional, progressive cold front, stretching from the Mid MS Valley northeastward into far western NY and then back northward to a triple point near the central Ontario/Quebec border intersection. This front is expected to move eastward/southeastward through the Northeast while the portion of the front back west over the Plains remains largely stationary. ...Northeast... The air mass preceding the front across the Northeast will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and modest buoyancy, and thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves through the region. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is expected to move into the region on Thursday as well, although the strongest flow will likely lag behind the cold front. Even so, enough mid-level flow should be present to support 30 to 40 kt of deep-layer vertical shear. These environmental conditions will support the potential for a few more organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts and/or isolated hail. Southerly low-level flow through the Champlain Valley vicinity eastward across NH and western/central MA could result in enough low-level veering for a brief tornado or two, particularly with any discrete storms ahead of the primary line. ...Ozark Plateau...Mid MS Valley...TN/OH Valley... Strong diurnal heating in the presence of abundant low-level moisture is expected to result in diurnal destabilization in the vicinity of the front stretch from the Ozarks into the OH Valley. Convergence along the front coupled with modest large-scale ascent attendant to a weak (potentially stronger if convective enhancement materializes) should result in numerous thunderstorms across the region. Vertical shear will be weak, with a mostly multicellular mode anticipated, but a few damaging water-loaded downbursts are possible. Additionally, despite relatively poor lapse rates, the overall strength of the instability could still result in isolated instances of hail. ..Mosier.. 07/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two will be possible late this afternoon and evening across the central High Plains. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central High Plains late this afternoon/evening... A spatially shrinking thunderstorm cluster across southwest Nebraska should further weaken/diminish as it parallels the elevated portion of a northwest/southeast-oriented frontal zone across the region. Otherwise, given visible/surface observational trends, latest thinking remains that this front and related low-level upslope trajectories/differential heating will influence at least widely scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon, initially across far eastern Wyoming, far northeast Colorado, the Nebraska Panhandle, and perhaps as far north as the Black Hills vicinity. Upper 50s/low 60s F surface dewpoints will support MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be particularly steep, the moderate buoyancy and relatively long hodographs (effective bulk shear near 40 kt) will favor a few south/southeastward-moving supercells by late afternoon. Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be the main threats, though a tornado or two may also occur with the more persistent supercells. There is the potential that one or more southeastward-moving thunderstorm clusters could evolve this evening, particularly across far southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas with severe-caliber wind potential. ...Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... An effective frontal zone remains and continues to be reinforced from the Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary and differential heating and possible weak MCV influences will help focus additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong mid-level winds/vertical shear will tend to remain to the cool side of the front, with weaker wind profiles in the unstable warm sector to the south, with one exception being the windward side of the central Appalachians where low/mid-level winds are a bit stronger and could support a few transient supercells. More broadly, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and cloud breaks, in combination with moderate to locally strong buoyancy, will support some threat for isolated wind damage with downbursts in multicell clusters this afternoon into evening. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Near a secondary southeastward-moving front, mid-level winds will be relatively stronger with a relatively moist air mass remaining in place. However, the influence of clouds and some lingering morning convection continue to cast uncertainty on the potential for thunderstorms capable wind damage within a zone spanning northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Ohio. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/27/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale ridge will persist over the northwestern CONUS, while a belt of moderate northwesterly midlevel flow overspreads the northern Rockies. This large-scale pattern will result in an overlap of hot/dry boundary-layer conditions (10-15 percent RH) and breezy northerly surface winds near 15 mph over parts of southeast OR, southwest ID, and northern NV. Given highly receptive fuels over these areas, elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible during the afternoon. In addition, diurnal heating coupled with adequate midlevel moisture over the northern Rockies will support isolated high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon -- aided by a subtle midlevel impulse crossing the area. Any storms that can develop and overspread critically dry fuels and the deeply-mixed boundary layer could lead to isolated lightning-induced ignitions. Farther west along the Cascades in northern CA into southern OR, additional high-based thunderstorm development will be possible as upslope flow strengthens amid modest buoyancy. While storm coverage is expected to be limited, even isolated strikes over this area could result in ignitions owing to very dry fuels. Over the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface winds and 15-20 percent minimum RH could favor locally elevated conditions during the afternoon. However, these conditions look too marginal/localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271459 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 The area of low pressure we have been monitoring more than 500 miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better organized this morning. First light visible imagery shows cold convective cloud tops near the estimated center that also appear to be rotating cyclonically. While we haven't had any recent C-band scatterometer passes near the center of this system, a recent KU-band scatterometer showed plenty of non-rain contaminated winds to help confirm that a closed circulation exists. Subjective Dvorak classifications were up to T2.0/30-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB. A recently arriving SSMIS pass at 1159 UTC also showed a well-defined curve band wrapping at least 75 percent around the northwestern side of the system. All these data indicate a new tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity will be set at 30 kt this advisory. Currently the depression is moving westward at 275/6 kt. A large deep-layer ridge is situated north of the cyclone which should steer it on a general westward to west-southwestward heading over the next day or so. Afterwards, the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Frank is expected to get close enough to initiate binary interaction with the depression. The net result of this interaction is that the depression is likely to bend even more southward than the larger-scale steering flow would initially suggest, and there is some chance that Frank may capture the smaller depression. For now, the track forecast keeps Frank and TD Eight-E separate, showing a very slow west-northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast period. This track forecast is roughly follows the TVCE aid early on, but is slower later in the forecast period due to uncertainty with interaction with Frank to the east. This initial track forecast is of low confidence. The intensity forecast is also challenging and strongly related to how much interaction this depression has with the larger circulation of Frank. Assuming the depression remains separate, environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable for intensification in the short-term, with moderate easterly vertical wind shear, and plenty of nearby dry air that could get ingested into the small circulation at any time. For these reasons, the intensity forecast only shows modest intensification over the next 24-48 hours and caps the storm at 40 kt thereafter due to uncertainty in its future evolution near Frank. This is roughly in line with the latest SHIPS guidance, but is lower than the HCCA and other consensus intensity aids which are biased by the larger and stronger wind field of Frank later on in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.3N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2022 14:56:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2022 15:28:28 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271455 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 11(24) 7(31) 1(32) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271455 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 114.8W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn west-southwestward over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 the center of Eight-E was located near 16.3, -114.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 163 WTPZ23 KNHC 271454 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 114.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 114.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2022 14:54:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2022 15:22:36 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 536 WTPZ42 KNHC 271452 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Frank continues to feel the effects of about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center remaining just northeast of the current convective burst. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-40 kt range, and these have changed little since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The global models suggest that the current shear should ease over the next 12-24 h and allow Frank to gradually strengthen. Between 24-72 h, the shear is forecast to become light while the cyclone is over 28-29C sea surface temperatures, and this environment could allow for steady, and possible rapid, intensification. The forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is unchanged from the previous forecast due to uncertainty as to whether Frank will have a good enough structure to rapidly intensify. However, this is in the middle of the intensity guidance and could be conservative. After 72 h, Frank should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this should cause weakening. Frank is wobbling between a westward and west-northwestward motion with the current motion of 285/9. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Frank generally westward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion from 36-72 h. After that time, the cyclone is expected to moved more northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by by a mid- to upper-level trough developing over the Pacific west of California. The new official forecast rack is similar to the previous track through 60 h, and then is nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast in response to a northward shift of the guidance. The new forecast is close to or a little south of the various consensus models. It should be noted that Frank and the newly-formed Tropical Depression Eight-E are likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global models suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and that the depression will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 623 FOPZ12 KNHC 271451 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 61(75) 1(76) 1(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 2(21) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 19(53) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 271451 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 ...FRANK SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 105.9W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 105.9 West. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A generally westward motion is expected through Thursday night, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin tonight and continue through Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANK SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 the center of Frank was located near 12.4, -105.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 271451 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

A Madison County farm grows and sells its own and other locally grown fruits and vegetables, but the heat and drought are slowing produce growth and narrowing selection. Green beans and corn were scarce, for example. In addition, the cost of seeds, fuel and fertilizer was higher this year. The farm was actively seeking more produce to sell to have a better selection for its customers. WBBJ-TV ABC 7 (Tenn.), July 22, 2022

Tonkawa in Kay County has not received measurable rain in nearly 60 days. The extreme heat was drying out the crops, and wheat, grass and alfalfa production was halved. Hay prices were double. More and more cattle were being sold to market. Alfalfa was short and was not growing. Farmers hoped others would join them in praying for rain. KOKH FOX 25 (Oklahoma City, Okla.), July 22, 2022

Crop production in the Coastal Bend is yielding from 25% to 50% less than normal. The Nueces County Texas A&M Extension agent stated that this is considered a disaster. The area has had numerous 100-degree days and months on end without rain, leaving some farmers and ranchers relying heavily on crop insurance. The grass is short, hay is in short supply and many beef cattle have been liquidated. KIII-TV (Corpus Christi, Texas), July 23, 2022