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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward from the Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, deep/enhanced westerly flow will overspread parts of southern ID into western WY -- where single-digit to lower teens RH will develop during the afternoon. The combination of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels will result in elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. In addition, increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will encourage widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms over eastern ID into western MT. As these storms overspread a hot/deeply-mixed boundary layer and receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any precipitation cores. Farther south over the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface winds near 15 mph will develop in response to a weak surface low near northwest OK. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20-25 percent minimum RH could lead to locally elevated conditions from the TX/OK Panhandles into western OK. However, these conditions appear too marginal/localized for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Michigan Department of Natural Resources warned that the dry conditions make fire safety a priority for those outdoors. DNR wildland firefighters have responded to more than 170 fires covering more than 3,200 acres so far in 2022. FOX 17 (Grand Rapids, Michigan), July 21, 2022

A timothy hay field in Rhode Island was so dry from drought that the field will have to be reseeded because it will not recover. Rain has not fallen since May, and the first cut of hay was 30% below normal. The orchard grass, which ought to be two feet in height was maybe an inch tall, but it was green. Given the lack of rain, water restrictions were in effect for parts of South Kingstown and Narragansett. Warwick has announced similar measures. The Providence Journal (R.I.), July 22, 2022

Drought is damaging the cotton crop in Texas, ratcheting up the abandonment rate to 32%, the third highest on record. The cotton production forecast was last this dire in 2011, when intense heat and drought drove the abandonment rate to a record 36%. “The biggest problem in West Texas is there's absolutely nothing to fall back on,” according to Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. “There's no subsoil moisture. Or there’s very little topsoil moisture. And so with each day of triple-digit heat continuing to add insult to injury, we've got more than 70% of the U.S. cotton crop considered to be in a drought area right now." AgWeb (Mexico, Mo.), July 21, 2022

Drought and dry pastures forced many Texas ranchers to sell livestock that would normally be sold in the fall. A beef cattle rancher and farmer from the La Vernia area stated that livestock were receiving range cubes and hay, but hay was becoming scarce and expensive. KSAT-TV ABC 12 San Antonio (Texas), July 19, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible Sunday from portions of New England west-southwestward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be possible across portions of southern Montana and into the northern and central High Plains. ...New England west-southwestward across the Midwest... A cold front initially stretching from the upper Great Lakes to Kansas is forecast to move eastward across the Lower Lakes (eventually reaching the Northeast), and southeastward across the Ohio Valley/Midwest/central Plains through the period. This will occur as mid-level height falls gradually expand southward across the Great Lakes region south of a mid-level low/short-wave trough crossing southern Ontario and eventually moving into western Quebec. Ahead of the front, a moist boundary layer will undergo heating/destabilization through the day. Storms -- and possibly some lingering severe potential -- may be ongoing early along the front across the parts of the Midwest/upper Great Lakes, but bands of afternoon storms are forecast to initiate near and ahead of the front, from western New England west-southwestward to Illinois/Missouri. The strongest flow aloft is forecast from the Great Lakes to New England, which warrants an expansion of severe probabilities across portions of New England in this update. Locally damaging winds are expected as multiple clusters/convective bands evolve with time, across the entire slight risk area. In addition, a tornado or two will also be possible -- particularly across the Lower Great Lakes region and into western New England, where with isolated/rotating storms will be possible, given veering low-level winds beneath stronger west-southwesterlies through the mid troposphere. Risk may continue through the evening, though gradually diminishing with time as the cold front shifts slowly southeastward. ...Southern Montana into the northern and central High Plains... A couple of short-wave troughs are forecast to shift east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region, with the lead disturbance expected to cross the central High Plains through the afternoon/evening. As heating/modest destabilization occurs, thunderstorm development is expected -- initially over the higher terrain from southern Montana into Colorado. Eventually, storms may congeal into clusters, moving off the higher terrain and into the northern and central High Plains. Given dry/deeply mixed subcloud layer, a few damaging wind gusts can be expected, warranting MRGL risk upgrade. Risk should diminish through the late evening in most areas. ...Arizona... As daytime heating/mixing/destabilization maximizes through the afternoon across Arizona, scattered convective development is expected. It appears that with low-level easterly flow beneath mid-level southeasterlies, some potential for propagation of storms off the higher terrain into the lower deserts could occur, with gusty/locally damaging winds not entirely out of the question. However, risk appears a bit uncertain/limited at this time, precluding an areal depiction at this time. ..Goss.. 07/23/2022 Read more

MD 1564 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Areas affected...Southern and eastern Ohio into Southwest Pennsylvania and West Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490... Valid 231744Z - 231945Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging to severe winds will remain possible through the afternoon hours as an MCS continues to move east. However, a downstream watch is not currently anticipated given the overall weakening trends of the system. DISCUSSION...An ongoing MCS continues to push east/southeast into eastern and southern OH. In general, satellite imagery and echo top data all show weakening trends over the past 60 minutes as the system becomes increasingly outflow dominant. While a few wind damage reports have been noted, most surface stations support this trend with recent observed wind gusts generally in the 30-45 mph range. Downstream into southwest PA and WV, mostly clear skies ahead of the line has allowed for MLCAPE to increase to around 2000-2500 J/kg with little inhibition. This is fostering some re-development along parts of the outflow boundary (new, but isolated, convective towers are noted in latest IR imagery along the line), and these storms may continue to support a sporadic wind threat into WV and PA. Modest deep-layer flow sampled in downstream VWPs is supporting upwards of 20-25 knots of effective shear, which should limit the potential for robust storm intensification. Given these observations, a downstream watch is not currently anticipated, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 07/23/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LMK... LAT...LON 38718377 39238322 40068221 40718157 41078103 41087904 40357855 39567866 38837922 37958034 37898227 38028323 38278388 38718377 Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW UNI TO 20 NNE ZZV TO 15 N CAK. ..MOORE..07/23/22 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC009-013-019-029-059-067-081-099-111-115-119-121-127-151-157- 167-231840- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MAHONING MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY STARK TUSCARAWAS WASHINGTON PAC003-007-059-073-125-231840- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY BEAVER GREENE LAWRENCE WASHINGTON WVC009-029-051-069-073-095-103-231840- Read more

WW 490 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 231540Z - 232200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms across central Ohio at late morning will continue to progress east-southeastward this afternoon toward eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania. Strong to severe wind gusts will remain a possibility this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Akron OH to 50 miles southeast of Zanesville OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 488...WW 489... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FRM TO 25 NW MKT TO 30 E MSP. ..LEITMAN..07/23/22 ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-037-079-103-131-139-147-161-231840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DAKOTA LE SUEUR NICOLLET RICE SCOTT STEELE WASECA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 489 SEVERE TSTM MN SD 231130Z - 231900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Minnesota Northeastern South Dakota * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 630 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially isolated severe thunderstorms over the western parts of the watch area, in SD, are expected to expand/organize into a complex of severe thunderstorms through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. As this activity moves east-southeastward over the next several hours, a threat exists for both severe wind and occasional damaging hail. The tornado potential may increase toward the later hours of the watch time in MN. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles either side of a line from 30 miles west of Aberdeen SD to 45 miles east of Mankato MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487...WW 488... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Edwards Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system over the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week.
The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to
15 mph remaining well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts (some over 75 mph), a few tornadoes and large to very large hail will be possible today across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes regions. ...Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes... Current MCS across southern Minnesota with a recent history of measured strong/severe wind gusts should continue to organize/grow upscale as it thrives along the instability gradient toward southern Wisconsin and far northeast Iowa and possibly far northern Illinois through the afternoon. Damaging winds will likely be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail may also occur along with at least some tornado risk. Additional severe storms are also likely to develop along the southeastward-moving front this afternoon/early evening across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa southwestward into the central Plains, including parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, where severe-caliber wind gusts will be most probable risk. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... A quasi-linear MCS persists at midday across Ohio with at least some persistent potential for wind gusts, with a bit of rejuvenation possible as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Additional isolated/episodic severe storms will remain possible across northern Illinois/northern Indiana into Ohio along the trailing boundary and atop the remnant surface cold pool. A secondary round of storms via the Minnesota/Wisconsin MCS could move into parts of the region later tonight, most probable in areas farther to the north toward the Lake Michigan vicinity. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/23/2022 Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VPZ TO 25 NW MIE TO 35 SSW MIE TO 40 SW CMH TO CMH TO 25 SSW CLE. ..MOORE..07/23/22 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC011-015-023-057-059-065-095-097-157-159-171-181-231740- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CARROLL CLINTON HAMILTON HANCOCK HENRY MADISON MARION TIPPECANOE TIPTON WARREN WHITE OHC045-083-089-129-231740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD KNOX LICKING PICKAWAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0491 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 491 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 231635Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southeast Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will likely continue to intensify and progress east-southeastward across the region through the afternoon, with additional near-frontal development possible across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Minneapolis MN to 50 miles east southeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 488...WW 489...WW 490... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Guyer Read more

 Texas A&M Forest Service was requested by Lake City VFD for a fire in Archer county just south of Wichita Falls, upon arrival the fire was estimated to be approximately 300 acres and very active. Over 50 homes where being evacuated and the fire is threatening to jump HWY 287. Extreme temperatures coupled with dry vegetation are contributing to the fire

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... A strong midlevel shortwave trough will track east-southeastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant cold front sweeps southward across the central Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the approaching cold front, southerly surface winds will strengthen across the central and southern Plains, where 20-25 percent minimum RH is expected. Given receptive fuels across the region, elevated conditions will be possible -- especially from the northern TX Panhandle northward through western KS and western NE. Behind the cold front, breezy/gusty northerly surface winds and low RH will persist across western NE and western KS into the evening hours. However, scattered showers/thunderstorms along/ahead of the southward-advancing cold front casts uncertainty on the duration of elevated conditions across the aforementioned areas, precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PIA TO RFD TO 30 WNW BEH. ..MOORE..07/23/22 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC037-043-063-089-091-093-197-231640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL WILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more