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MD 1631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Areas affected...northern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021741Z - 021845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail will be possible with elevated storms early this afternoon. A weather watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional radar showed isolated thunderstorms developing along and north of a warm front across portions of northern MN and WI. Driven predominately by warm advection, these storms are rooted above the surface with unstable parcels near 850 mb. Model soundings show 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE along with 40-50 kt of effective shear within northwesterly flow aloft. Some organization potential into elevated supercell structures is possible given the favorable CAPE/shear overlap. Isolated marginally severe hail will be the primary risk given the relatively isolated nature of storms and favorable deep-layer shear. However, the marginal buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates should limit updraft strength and hail production. Storms should gradually weaken as they drift eastward away from the frontal zone and ascent. While isolated instances of hail will remain possible through this afternoon, the limited potential for more organized severe storms suggests a watch is unlikely. ..Lyons/Grams.. 08/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 48399399 48569491 48489559 48259581 47949606 47599562 47089475 46779398 46529289 46259222 46319103 46689064 46929067 47069110 47249178 47499238 47899328 48399399 Read more

Cambridge residents were asked to help the city's trees by watering them amid the heat and drought as new and even older trees were "significantly stressed." Staff from Cambridge’s urban forestry department were using three water trucks to provide relief to street trees across the city throughout the day. The city’s water department and “water-by-bike” staff were also helping with tree watering. People were also asked to limit or stop all unneeded outdoor watering, excluding tree watering, and to conserve water. Boston.com (Mass.), Aug. 2, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are most likely from Lower Michigan into the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday, with at least isolated severe possible extending southwestward across Missouri and into eastern Kansas. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to persist across the southern half of the CONUS throughout the period, keeping any stronger westerly flow aloft confined to the northern CONUS. A shortwave trough is expected to move through this western flow, beginning the period extended from western Ontario through the Upper Midwest. This shortwave should then progress eastward through the remainder of Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes, and into Quebec. Surface low attendant to this shortwave will take a similar track, moving just ahead of the parent shortwave, as associated cold front pushes southeastward through the Upper/Middle MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. This cold front will interact with the warm and moist air mass covering the MS Valley, Upper Great Lakes, and OH Valley, triggering scattered to widespread thunderstorms across the region. ...Upper Great Lakes into the Lower MO Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within the warm-air advection regime preceding the front over northern Lower MI and adjacent portions of far eastern Upper MI. Stable low-levels will limit surface-based storms, but cold mid-level temperatures and low to mid-level moisture advection will support elevated thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong enough produce hail. The low-level stable layer will be relatively shallow, so a few downbursts could be strong enough to reach the surface. These storms should move east into northeastern Ontario throughout the morning, allowing for destabilization in their wake across northern Lower MI. Additional destabilization is anticipated ahead the front within the warm and very moist air mass through the Mid MS Valley and into the Ozark Plateau. By the afternoon, strong to very strong instability (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000-4000 J/kg) will likely be in place over this region, with little to no convective inhibition. Rapid thunderstorm development is expected as the front interacts with this airmass. The strongest mid-level flow is expected over Lower MI, decreasing with southward/southwestward extent. As a result, the highest potential for supercells is over Lower MI, with greater shear/outflow balance possible here as well. A more outflow-dominant, multicellular mode is likely farther south, from the Mid MS Valley to the Lower MO Valley. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat across the entire region, but potential for supercells and stronger low-level hodograph curvature suggests a tornado or two is possible across northern Lower MI. ...Southern AZ... Deep easterly flow is expected over the region, as the upper ridge shifts slightly northward towards the Four Corners vicinity. Thunderstorm development is anticipated over the higher terrain, with the deep easterly flow then favoring motion off the terrain in the well-mixing boundary layer of adjacent desert. Thermodynamic conditions favor strong outflow, and the potential for a few severe wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 08/02/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible across a portion of the northern Upper Midwest this evening into tonight. ...Northeast ND to northern WI/Upper MI... A vigorous shortwave trough will progress east across the southern Prairie Provinces into northwest ON through 12Z tomorrow. A deep surface cyclone will similarly track from southern SK to far northwest ON. A cold front arcing southwest from this cyclone will sweep into the Red River Valley by evening and likely reach western Lake Superior in the early morning. Initial severe potential should be focused near this boundary in the northeast ND vicinity during the early evening. Here, the trailing portion of supercell development may spread across the international border (more likely in eastern MB) as MLCIN wanes on the western periphery of upper 60s boundary-layer dew points. This activity may occur within a confined corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km from 700-500 mb), and an elongated/straight-line hodograph. These will conditionally favor a discrete supercell or two capable of producing very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts into northwest MN during the evening. Farther east, a leading mid-level perturbation near the MB/ND border in conjunction with low-level warm theta-e advection should support a separate corridor of severe potential from the St. Croix Valley to western Upper MI this evening into tonight. The environment along the northwest/southeast-oriented warm front will be conditionally favorable for intense supercells. However, confidence is low in whether surface-based supercells will develop and be sustained given the presence of the upstream elevated mixed-layer and warming 700-mb temperatures (near 14 C this evening over the Twin Cities). The more probable scenario is for elevated convection later this evening into the overnight. With ample upstream buoyancy and effective bulk shear, organized clusters with embedded supercell structures should pose a threat for both severe hail and damaging winds. ...Lower OH Valley/Mid-South... Thunderstorm clusters are ongoing but largely decaying in southern IL. Broader convective outflow has spread out well ahead of these clusters near the confluence of the MS/OH rivers and should be a limiting factor to a more robust threat. But strong boundary-layer heating to the south and west of this outflow could support resurgence of convective remnants into the Mid-South region later this afternoon amid modest mid to upper-level north-northwesterlies. Morning guidance such as the 12Z NAM and HRRR runs have terribly simulated ongoing convection, lowering confidence in areal extent of the isolated damaging wind threat today. ...Northern ME... Scattered showers are ongoing along and just ahead of a surface cold front shifting east from the St. Lawrence Valley. This activity should deepen somewhat as it impinges on the warming boundary layer across northern New England. Weak mid-level lapse rates will limit updraft intensity, although a modest combination of buoyancy/shear could favor some threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Central/southern FL Peninsula... Numerous thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes and should eventually coalesce over the interior peninsula as they slowly spread inland later this afternoon. Light winds through 400 mb will limit potential for storm-scale organization with ambient effective bulk shear expected to only reach 8-15 kts. But large buoyancy and storm-scale mergers should support a threat for sporadic wet microbursts and localized strong gusts. ..Grams/Lyons.. 08/02/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... The main adjustment for this update is to expand the Elevated risk area into portions of northwest South Dakota and to introduce an isolated dry-thunderstorm risk to portions of central/northern NE. The 12 UTC UNR sounding sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions atop a shallow nocturnal inversion. Latest surface observations show temperatures quickly warming into the mid 80s as the inversion begins to mix out. Relative humidity should quickly fall through the afternoon as mixing continues (though this may be hindered to a degree by increasing cloud cover). As pressure gradient winds increase this afternoon, elevated conditions appear probable. To the south across NE, richer moisture content is noted in morning soundings, which will help support adequate instability for high-based thunderstorms later this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place as temperatures warm into the upper 90s and low 100s. A 2-3 km deep sub-cloud layer coupled with steep low-level lapse rates should be supportive of a few dry thunderstorms as well as gusty outflow winds. With ERCs across the region near the 90th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture between 5-8%, a lightning-driven fire weather threat appears probable. ..Moore.. 08/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over the western CONUS, a belt of deep/enhanced westerly flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Multiple shortwave troughs will move through the westerly flow aloft during the day, with the strongest midlevel flow expected across parts of northern MT into northwest ND. ...Wind/RH... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the belt of strong flow aloft will result in a swath of 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of MT into far western ND this afternoon. Given highly receptive fuels over this area, critical conditions are expected. Farther west, westerly downslope flow will favor warming/drying in the lee of the Cascades in WA into northern OR. Here, 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds coupled with 15-20 percent minimum RH will yield elevated to locally critical conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Large-scale ascent accompanying the shortwave troughs and sufficient midlevel moisture/instability will support high-based thunderstorm development along and east of the Cascades in OR into northern CA and farther east in the northern Rockies. While many of these storms will be associated with accumulating rainfall given 1.0-1.2 in PW, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the periphery of precipitation cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2022 14:38:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2022 15:22:35 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 021438 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Organized deep convection associated with Frank ceased overnight, and the tropical storm should become post-tropical very soon. The weakening cyclone is moving northwest near 10 kt, and should gradually bend toward the north over the next 36 h, then north-northeast by Thursday, steered primarily by the low-level flow. The latest TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity estimate is 35 kt, so the initial intensity is set at that value. Continued weakening will occur over the next few days while Frank gradually spins down over cold water with little or no convection to sustain it. Dissipation is forecast by nearly all of the dynamical models near or just after 60 h. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are near the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 24.8N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 26.1N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1200Z 28.0N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 30.0N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 33.7N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 021437 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 021437 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.1N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.0N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.7N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 021437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 ...FRANK WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 125.4W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 125.4 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual bend toward the north is expected over the next day and a half, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected for the next couple of days. Frank is forecast to become post-tropical this afternoon and dissipate by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...FRANK WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 2 the center of Frank was located near 24.8, -125.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2022 14:36:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2022 15:28:28 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021435 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Convection has continued to pulse near Georgette's circulation over the past 12 to 24 hours, but there has been little, if any, organization to the thunderstorm activity during that time. In fact, the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) provided its last Dvorak T1.0 on the system at 1800 UTC yesterday, indicating the lack of organization since that time. The initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT data that showed peak winds just above 25 kt. Given the lack of organization it now appears more likely that Georgette will succumb to the marginal environment that is embedded within. Moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs cooling to around 26C along the forecast track, and dry mid-level humidity is expected to result in additional weakening and degeneration of the system to a remnant low within the next day or two. This could occur as soon as later today, if organized deep convection does not return. Georgette has made its much anticipated northeastward turn, with the latest motion estimated at 040/6 kt. Low- to mid-level southwesterly flow to the south of Frank should continue to steer Georgette northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, a low-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which will cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the previous forecast to be in better agreement with the latest track model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.1N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 15.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 16.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 16.8N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 16.7N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 021434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 24 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 021434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 ...DISORGANIZED GEORGETTE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 130.4W ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Georgette was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 130.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday followed by a turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Georgette could become a remnant low at any time within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DISORGANIZED GEORGETTE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 2 the center of Georgette was located near 14.1, -130.4 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 021434 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 129.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.7N 129.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.8N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.7N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Residents of Gunter in North Texas were notified last Wednesday that they may run out of water. The next day. Heat and drought increased the water use in the town, and water tanks couldn't refill fast enough as two of three wells were down. The wells have failed, due to extreme heat, drought and high water demand, that keep the well motors running continuously, causing them to fail. Residents are asked to conserve as much as possible. Bottled water has been distributed to townspeople. In Sherman, beer brewers paused beer production to can water for their neighbors. Local Profile (Plano, Texas), Aug 1, 2022

Some dryland crops in south central Nebraska are likely lost and will not make grain, stated a farmer. With irrigated crops, the cost of irrigation increases the urgency of having a really good crop to offset irrigation costs. Brownfield Online (Jefferson City, Mo.), Aug 1, 2022

The corn and soybeans in Tippecanoe County were not in the best shape due to being planted late and the drought. The condition ratings as reported in the USDA crop report stated that 46% of the corn crop was good to excellent. Fortunately, rain fell toward the end of July at a critical time for corn when it pollinates. Dry July weather also slowed the development of tar spot, a disease that worsens with leaf wetness, and can lower corn yield. WLFI-TV Channel 18 (Lafayette, Ind.), Aug 1, 2022