Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 31 17:50:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311705
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Frank, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located well over a thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

MD 1619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EAST NC...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Areas affected...Central/East NC...Far South-Central/Southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311638Z - 311915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Multicell thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts will persist across the region through the afternoon. Additionally, a supercell or two is possible later this afternoon, with an attendant risk of damaging wind gust and/or a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...The air mass across north-central/northeast NC and adjacent portions of far south-central/southeast VA has quickly destabilized amid filtered diurnal heating and ample low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase over the next few hours, as modest low-level convergence persists near and south of the wavy warm front extending from south-central VA into far northeast NC. Much of this thunderstorm activity will occur south of the stronger mid-level flow, limiting the deep-layer vertical shear and likely leading to a predominantly multicellular, outflow-dominant storm mode. Primary severe risk with any of these storms is water-loaded downbursts. Later this afternoon, ascent may be augmented slightly by the shortwave trough moving through the Upper OH Valley. This shortwave will also contribute to a modest increase in the mid-level flow. While still favorable mostly multicells, these condition could also support a supercell or two. Primary risk would continue to be damaging wind gust, although a brief tornado or two could also occur. ..Mosier/Grams.. 07/31/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 34637776 35357923 35767997 36437998 36927923 36867767 36677674 36367582 35607564 34697624 34637776 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... Only minor modifications were made to the ongoing IsoDryT delineation, primarily to trim the western edge where fuels are not as favorable. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will remain in place across the western U.S. today while a mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states during the afternoon. Downslope flow along the higher terrain in western Montana and modest surface lee troughing across the northern Plains may support at least locally dry and windy conditions for a few hours. The bigger concern for wildfire-spread potential today exists across the Pacific Northwest. Modest deep-layer ascent with passing subtle mid-level impulses will work in tandem with afternoon peak heating to support the initiation of scattered high-based thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest, where fuels have recently become highly receptive to fire spread (based on the latest observations). The previous day's storms may have slightly dampened fuels locally. However, the relatively higher number of thunderstorm expected today, combined with the critically dry fuels (especially in lower-terrain areas) necessitates the addition of scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... Only minor modifications were made to the ongoing IsoDryT delineation, primarily to trim the western edge where fuels are not as favorable. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0222 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will remain in place across the western U.S. today while a mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states during the afternoon. Downslope flow along the higher terrain in western Montana and modest surface lee troughing across the northern Plains may support at least locally dry and windy conditions for a few hours. The bigger concern for wildfire-spread potential today exists across the Pacific Northwest. Modest deep-layer ascent with passing subtle mid-level impulses will work in tandem with afternoon peak heating to support the initiation of scattered high-based thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest, where fuels have recently become highly receptive to fire spread (based on the latest observations). The previous day's storms may have slightly dampened fuels locally. However, the relatively higher number of thunderstorm expected today, combined with the critically dry fuels (especially in lower-terrain areas) necessitates the addition of scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are most likely across a portion of the Upper Mississippi Valley between about 5 to 9 PM CDT. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough centered on the MB/ND border area will progress east-southeast into the western Great Lakes region tonight. Associated surface cold front over the eastern Dakotas will similarly push east-southeast across the Upper MS Valley through this evening. ...Upper MS Valley... Low-level warm-advection-driven convection is ongoing across south-central MN to northwest IA, but decaying ahead of the cold front. Stronger surface heating and greater boundary-layer moisture in the wake of this activity will support a confined plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg by 21-00Z. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected along the northern periphery of the buoyancy gradient in northwest to north-central MN. Convection will likely build south along the front through central to east-central MN during the early evening, with lower confidence in southern extent towards the IA border. Surface temperature-dew point spreads will be marginally large initially, but favorable low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will be sufficient for a threat of a tornado or two. Otherwise, around 30-35 kt effective bulk shear should yield a mixed cluster/embedded supercell mode, with the latter tending to be favored farther south where shear is slightly stronger and convection should be more semi-discrete. Damaging winds should be somewhat more favored in terms of coverage, but isolated severe hail is anticipated as well. Convection will likely diminish tonight as it spreads east of the confined surface-based buoyancy plume deeper into WI. ...NE/IA... A conditional supercell threat will exist across portions of northern to western IA along the surface cold front centered on early evening, in the wake of decaying elevated activity approaching the region. Isolated thunderstorms are more probable into the southwest NE area where MLCIN will be minimal at peak heating, along the western extent of the central Great Plains buoyancy plume. Weaker deep-layer shear should tend to favor a more marginal intensity threat this far west. ...NC/southern VA... A weak and wavy surface warm front has drifted north into far southwest VA and northeast NC, in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the Upper OH Valley. The southern fringe of modestly stronger mid-level westerlies (represented by effective bulk shear near 30 kt) will overlie the baroclinic zone, where there will be some enhancement to low-level hodograph curvature (0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2). Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, a mix of multicell clusters and transient supercells are expected across the baroclinic zone through about dusk. A brief weak tornado and isolated damaging wind gusts in water-loaded downdrafts will be possible. ...Southern AZ... The next perturbation within the monsoonal moisture plume is aiding morning thunderstorms over a portion of northwest Sonora and will likely yield a period of mid-level drying across southeast AZ in its wake. The midlevel drying and reduction in clouds will aid surface heating, but also casts some doubt on how widespread convection will be across the higher terrain in southeast AZ this afternoon. 15-20 kt southeasterly mid-level steering flow will support potential for isolated cells and small clusters to spread across the lower deserts of south-central AZ through about dusk with isolated severe wind gusts possible. ...Lower CO Valley to OR... Very isolated severe wind gusts are possible in pulse microbursts, but overall coverage is anticipated to be less than 5 percent over such a large swath around the Great Basin mid-level anticyclone. ..Grams/Lyons.. 07/31/2022 Read more

The Brook Mole Fire began at about 2:20pm on Friday, July 29. Fire personnel estimated the fire to be about 300 acres and 0% contained upon arrival. The fire burned on both sides of Brook Mole Road. Fire crews successfully held the fire east of Eureka School Road with the assistance of multiple aerial resources. Dozers secured the fire's perimeter and engines "mopped up" pockets of residual heat along the fire's perimeter. Local crews remained on scene overnight to monitor the fire. Additional crews returned in the morning to mop up remaining heat along the fire's perimeter and patrol the fire line.  The fire received some rain Friday night and into Saturday morning. As of Saturday afternoon, the fire is 100%

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 14:40:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 15:22:36 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 311439 TCDEP2 Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 An 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed the fragments of a small inner eye and a much larger 60 to 75 n-mi-wide eye. Since that time, the cloud tops have generally warmed with a small CDO feature remaining. Frank's outflow is still well established owing to the low vertical wind shear conditions. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range between 65 and 77 kt, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. Frank has crossed the 26 degree Celsius isotherm and will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next few days. In addition, the storm will be entering a drier and more stable environment. Thus, steady weakening is expected, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 72 hours, and dissipate by the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids closely and is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Frank is moving northwestward or 315/10 kt. The cyclone should move on a general northwestward track over the next couple of days around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a weaker and more shallow system is predicted to decelerate and turn north-northwest to northward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest consensus models and is very close to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 19.3N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 14:38:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 15:28:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 311438 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 120W 64 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 25N 120W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 15(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 311437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 119.3W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 119.3 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days as the cyclone moves over cooler waters, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 the center of Frank was located near 19.3, -119.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 311437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Deep convection waned through the overnight hours over the center of Georgette. However, over the past couple of hours some regeneration of convection has occurred over the cyclone's southern semicircle. There has been no new satellite wind data over the storm since early this morning, but the degradation of Georgette's appearance suggests continued weakening has occurred since the previous advisory. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT yields an intensity of 35 kt, which will be the initial advisory intensity. Georgette is moving slowly westward, or 260/5 kt, to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge. The portion of the ridge to the north of the cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane Frank passes well to the north. As a result, Georgette should continue to slow its forward motion and then begin drifting northward early this week toward the temporary weakness in the ridge carved out by Frank. By mid-week, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen, forcing the cyclone on a more westward track. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous one, as the track guidance has changed little since that time. The outflow from the large circulation of Frank continues to produce some strong easterly shear across Georgette that is causing it to struggle maintaining persistent deep convection. This shear is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Therefore, Georgette is expected to weaken a little more today and be a tropical depression through early this week. There is some possiblity that the shear will decrease before Georgette passes over cooler waters, and some flucuation in intensity is possible before Georgette becomes a remnant low late in the period. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower than the previous one, and is close to the various multi-model intensity consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.1N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 335 WTPZ33 KNHC 311437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...GEORGETTE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 129.7W ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 129.7 West. Georgette is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the north is forecast occur on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is expected through tonight. Then, some slight restrengthing could occur in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...GEORGETTE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 the center of Georgette was located near 13.1, -129.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 311437 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.3W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.3W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 271 FOPZ13 KNHC 311437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 11(26) 1(27) X(27) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 311436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.7W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 15SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.7W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 129.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 30 17:42:01 UTC 2022.