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Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 ...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 127.7W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 127.7 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Bonnie dissipates early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bonnie should become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The post-tropical low should dissipate by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 9 the center of Bonnie was located near 19.5, -127.7 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091441 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 127.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight across Montana into North Dakota, with damaging winds and large hail likely. Marginally severe storms may also occur from parts of Texas into much of the Southeast States, with locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ...Montana/North Dakota to Minnesota... An early morning MCS across central North Dakota will likely persist east-southeastward with the potential for some stronger wind gusts, but it will likely tend to weaken into midday as elevated inflow diminishes. The remnants of this MCS could subsequently serve as a focus for isolated robust redevelopment across eastern North Dakota and/or northern Minnesota later this afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. Otherwise, another semi-active scenario is anticipated across the region later today, including the possibility of a somewhat higher severe potential across Montana/western North Dakota as compared to yesterday. A wind/hail-related Enhanced Risk may be warranted in subsequent Day 1 Outlook updates. Late day/nighttime height falls along with a strengthening of deep-layer westerlies are expected from Idaho/Montana into North Dakota late this afternoon and tonight in advance of a consequential shortwave trough emerging from the Pacific Northwest. Convection will again initially develop over the mountains of northern Idaho and southwest Montana. Forecast soundings suggest convective initiation will occur by 21z-22z as convective temperatures are breached. These storms will evolve beneath a belt of 40-50kt of mid-level flow that will encourage upscale growth of scattered supercells into central Montana. Seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and strong shear suggest one or more MCSs may evolve. This activity should focus along a corridor from central Montana into west-central North Dakota this evening into the overnight. Initial supercells may produce very large hail, but with time, the severe wind threat may increase as bow-type structures are likely to evolve with a maturing MCS. ...Deep South to Carolinas/eastern Virginia... On the eastern periphery of the Great Plains upper ridge, modestly strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across much of the Deep South and Southeast States. A southward-moving front, aided by weak support aloft, along with pre-existing early day storm clusters/outflows across the Tennessee Valley, should encourage at scattered to numerous thunderstorms especially this afternoon within a high PW environment. Some of these storms are likely to produce localized microbursts capable of wind damage. ...Texas/ArkLaTex... A very hot/humid air mass with afternoon temperatures in excess of 100F in many locations could support some strong/locally severe wind gusts as thunderstorms develop this afternoon near/south of the front across the region. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/09/2022 Read more

667
ABPZ20 KNHC 091150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Recent satellite imagery indicates that the coverage and
organization of shower and thunderstorm activity has increased
significantly overnight in association with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
central part of the eastern North Pacific basin today or tomorrow
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

West of Central America:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form west of the coast of
Central America by early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system
next week while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z No changes have been made to the outlook, see the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft over the western CONUS will persist for the next 24 hours ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. This will maintain dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin for today, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Unseasonably hot and dry conditions are expected across much of central TX. While winds will generally be benign, very low humidity and curing grasses will yield at least a low-end fire weather concern for the region. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will once again focus across portions of the Great Basin for this afternoon. Early-morning water vapor imagery shows a dry, subsident air mass in place from Baja CA into the eastern Great Basin, which was sampled well by regional 00 UTC soundings. While some mid/upper-level moisture will advect into the region in the form of scattered high clouds today, mostly sunny skies coupled with the antecedent dry air mass will result in another day of widespread 10-20% RH. Latest fuel guidance continues to show high ERCs above the 90th percentile across eastern NV into adjacent areas of UT and ID. While this region will be on the periphery of the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, deep diurnal mixing will maintain 15-20 mph winds with frequent gusts to 25 mph. Consequently, elevated conditions appear likely with sporadic critical conditions possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS KY AND VICINITY...AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MT/WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated very large hail and significant outflow gusts are possible late this afternoon into early tonight across Montana, and occasional damaging winds will be possible this afternoon across Kentucky and vicinity. ...OH Valley into the Southeast this afternoon/evening... An expansive midlevel ridge will dominate the Southwest and southern Plains through the period, with mostly weak west-northwesterly flow over the upper MS and OH Valleys. Weak convectively-enhanced perturbations in the west-northwest flow, with associated convective clusters, will continue to move east-southeastward through the afternoon from southern IN into KY. These storm clusters will move along the southern fringe of the 30 kt midlevel flow, and along a baroclinic zone coincident with the northern edge of the warmest boundary layer, where dewpoints will range from the low to mid 70s. Though midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, the warm/moist boundary layer will drive MLCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range, which will help maintain the ongoing clusters, and support additional storm development to the southwest along the trailing outflow near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. The modest midlevel flow and steepening low-level lapse rates during the afternoon will support occasional strong/damaging outflow gusts as the main threat across KY and vicinity. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are expected in the weak northwest flow regime into the Carolinas/GA this afternoon, with storm development focused along diffuse boundaries/differential heating zones. The weak flow and poor midlevel lapse rates suggest that pulse storm downbursts with outflow winds near or above 50 kt will be sparse. ...MT area later this afternoon into western ND tonight... Clusters of high-based thunderstorms are expected to form from southwest into central/north central MT later this afternoon/evening, in association with surface heating/deep mixing and embedded speed maxima moving around the northwest periphery of the Southwest/southern Plains ridge aloft. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be replenished from the southwest during the day, and surface heating will boost MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Long hodographs with effective shear in excess of 40 kt, in combination with the steep lapse rates and strong buoyancy will support clusters with embedded supercells and bowing segments, capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated significant outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ...High Plains area this afternoon/evening... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening east of the high terrain from eastern WY into northeast CO. Forcing for ascent will be weak, but terrain circulations and weak upslope low-level flow should support storm development. Deep-layer, northwesterly vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells and small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts and hail late this afternoon through late evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/08/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 8 16:31:01 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 8 16:31:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 8 16:31:02 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2022 14:36:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2022 15:22:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081434 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Deep convection continues to quickly decrease near Bonnie, with a small area remaining near and north of the surface center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are falling, and a blend of 4 0935 UTC microwave SATCON intensity values supports an initial intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Bonnie's moving over 25 deg C water with cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a drier, stable air mass along the forecast path of the cyclone. Therefore, further weakening is likely with a loss of organized convection, and post-tropical status is predicted in 36 hours, possibly less. As shown in the global models and the NHC intensity forecast, Bonnie should degenerate into a trough in 4 days. The initial motion is due west, or 280/17 kt. Low- to mid-tropospheric easterly flow should steer the cyclone on a continued westward heading with a slight decrease in forward speed early Sunday. The model guidance remains in good agreement with the future track of Bonnie through the period, and no appreciable changes were made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.3N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 081433 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 35(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 125W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 081433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 ...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 120.4W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 120.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A general westward motion is expected during the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed Sunday through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength later today and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 the center of Bonnie was located near 18.3, -120.4 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081433 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

The Gatlin Creek Fire began on July 6th, 2022 in the area of Gatlin Creek Rd and Mt. Olive School Road. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with Hays County. Aviation resources have been used to slow fire rate of spread, including a large air tanker, single engine air tankers, a type one large helicopter, and Travis County Starflight. Heavy equipment is being used to construct containment lines along the fires edge. Evacuations:All evacuations were lifted at 8:30pm July

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe winds and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of severe storms may also develop this afternoon into evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough/convectively reinforced MCV near the Iowa/Missouri/Illinois border at daybreak will continue east-southeastward today coincident with moderately enhanced (30-40 kt 500-700 mb) westerlies over the Ohio Valley. Some scattered strong storms are ongoing across downstate portions of Illinois/Indiana early today. The persistence of this convection will help to reinforce a slow-moving front across the region. Storms should further develop and intensify into this afternoon within an unstable environment across southern Indiana into central/eastern Kentucky and possibly southwest Ohio, with the moderately strong flow potentially allowing for some weak/transient supercells aside from a more prevalent tendency for organizing bands and linear segments. Damaging winds will likely be the most common risk overall, but some hail may occur as well especially with any storms exhibiting supercellular characteristics, which is most probable across parts of Kentucky and far southern Indiana. Additional severe storms may form by mid/late afternoon through early evening along the southeastward-advancing front across far southern Illinois/southeast Missouri and western Kentucky, and possibly into Tennessee. ...Montana/Northern High Plains... Broad mid-level height rises are expected across much of the central and western CONUS, but a shortwave trough will eject across Montana into southeast Saskatchewan/northwest North Dakota later today. Strong surface heating will remove CINH by mid-afternoon and scattered thunderstorms should once again develop across the mountains of Idaho into southwest Montana by late afternoon. Seasonally strong southwesterly mid-level flow will encourage this activity to spread toward lower elevations where higher moisture/buoyancy will provide an opportunity for upscale growth. Forecast soundings suggest supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds can be expected, while an increasing low-level jet across eastern Montana during the evening should support this activity propagating toward western North Dakota after sunset. ...Southern Plains to Mid-South... A surface front will settle southward across the region through the afternoon and early evening. Strong insolation and heating will allow temperatures to soar above 100F near/south of the front, while PW values will be around 2 inches particularly across parts of Oklahoma/Arkansas. With large temperature/dew point spreads at the surface, isolated severe downbursts may occur across the region this afternoon through around sunset. ...Maine... Isolated strong storms may occur primarily across northern Maine along/ahead of a cold front that will surge southeastward across northern New England this afternoon. Overall buoyancy nor mid-level lapse rates will be robust, but steep low-level lapse rates and strong unidirectional westerlies could yield gusty winds/small hail with the most robust convection. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/08/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form well southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week
while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

South of Central America:
A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week south of
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system next week
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts